With the SEC case concluded, on-chain signals are releasing expectations for price increases.
With the conclusion of the related cases by the U.S. SEC, the price of XRP has continued to strengthen recently, and on-chain data shows that its potential for further increases may be opening up.
The core driving signal comes from the 'golden cross' in the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio of XRP—meaning the short-term MVRV ratio has broken through the 200-day long-term moving average.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted in an X post on August 8 that this rare pattern has only occurred twice in recent years, and both times signaled significant subsequent increases: historical data shows that after the first two occurrences of this signal, XRP surged by 630% and 54%, respectively.
The MVRV ratio is used to measure the degree of overestimation or underestimation of an asset's price relative to its historical acquisition price. If XRP replicates its best historical performance this time, based on the current price of $3.30, it could rise to $24.42, with a market cap potentially reaching $14.5 trillion, at which point it may surpass Ethereum to become the second-largest cryptocurrency in the world (assuming ETH’s growth is limited during the same period).
Beware of whale outflow signals: 90-day moving average whale flow has turned negative.
Despite positive upward signals, XRP investors still need to pay attention to potential risks. Data shared by The Enigma Trader shows that the 90-day moving average whale flow for XRP has turned negative, indicating that large holders (whales) are continuing to reduce their holdings.
This pattern is similar to the market situation in January-February this year: at that time, whales continued to sell, leading to a pullback after XRP reached local highs. Although the duration of whale outflows currently is shorter and lighter than at the beginning of the year, the correlation between 'whale selling and price weakness' still needs to be monitored. Analysts warn that if whale inflows do not quickly rebound to a net inflow level of over 5 million XRP per day, the market may face structural selling pressure.
With the conclusion of the SEC case, the current price is stabilizing at $3.30.
On August 7, Ripple and the SEC reached a consensus, with both parties abandoning their appeals against Judge Analisa Torres's previous ruling on fines and institutional sales bans, marking the official end of this long legal dispute.
As of the time of writing, the trading price of XRP is $3.32, experiencing a slight increase of 0.65% in the past 24 hours, with a total increase of nearly 11% over the past week.
From a technical perspective, if the market maintains a bullish sentiment, XRP needs to hold the support level at $3.30, with a short-term outlook of potentially targeting $3.50. Overall, the historical strong signal of the MVRV golden cross combined with the positive resolution of the SEC case injects momentum into XRP's subsequent movement, but the risk of whale outflows still needs continuous monitoring.