Saylor does not act as a trader, but as a believer that Bitcoin will be the cornerstone of the new financial system. Every sharp price decline is seen as a strategic buying opportunity, not a threat of exit.
Strong expectation: MicroStrategy will continue to accumulate Bitcoin as long as the price is below $75,000, with an accelerated buying pace in the event of temporary corrections.
. Geopolitical Factors and External Risks:- - Trade tensions - Rising tensions between China and the West (such as tariffs on electric vehicles) could disrupt supply chains and pressure corporate profits.
. Sector Analysis: - Technology Sector - Technology stocks (such as NVIDIA and Microsoft) have risen over 40% since the beginning of 2024, supported by an AI wave. Any decline in profit expectations could lead to a sharp correction.
Timeframe Expectations and Potential Scenarios :- - **Most Realistic Scenario (65% Probability)**: - A pullback of 10-15% in major indices (such as S&P 500) during the third quarter of 2024, driven by: - Weak corporate earnings reports with slowing consumer demand. - Federal Reserve announcing a delay in interest rate cuts until 2025. - Geopolitical escalation in Taiwan or the Middle East.
- Shallow Correction Scenario (25% Probability): - A pullback of 5-8% with a quick recovery, especially if economic data shows resilience (such as declining unemployment or strong job growth).
- **Overly Optimistic Scenario (10% Probability)**: - Continued rise with the S&P 500 reaching 6,000 points, supported by a boom in AI or widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies.
- Valuation metrics : - [P/E ratio of the S&P 500] at ~25x (higher than the historical average of ~16x), indicating that stocks are trading at inflated prices compared to earnings. - [Buffett Indicator (market capitalization/GDP)] exceeds 180%, indicating that the market is overvalued.
- Limited liquidity : - Continued reduction of central bank balance sheets (such as the Fed, which has reduced its balance sheet by ~$1.3 trillion since 2022) limits the liquidity available for high-risk investments.
. Technical Indicators and Market Volatility (Technical & Volatility) :-
- VIX Index (Fear Index) : - At low levels (~12 points), reflecting [risk satisfaction] among investors, which is a classic indicator of an impending market correction.
- Historical resistance levels : - The S&P 500 index approaching the 5,500 point level (strong psychological resistance) without enough momentum may lead to mass sell-offs (profit-taking).
Under the current economic and financial conditions, several indicators suggest the likelihood of a [market pullback] in the coming months, especially in high-value financial markets (such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ). Here is the detailed analysis:
Macro Factors:- - Inflation and interest rates :
- Despite the slowdown in inflation in the United States (CPI at ~3.3% in May 2024), central banks (such as the U.S. Federal Reserve) remain cautious about lowering interest rates. Any delay in monetary easing may increase borrowing pressures on companies and individuals, weakening corporate profits and reducing liquidity in the markets. - **Strong dollar index**: constrains global growth, especially in emerging markets, affecting the earnings of multinational corporations.
- Global economic growth : - The slowdown in growth in China (growth rate ~4.7% in 2024) and the contraction in the real estate sector, along with the recession in Europe (such as Germany), limits optimism in global markets.
Here is a simplified and distinctive look at the forecasts for the PEPE currency movement during this week:
Current level and technical momentum: PEPE is currently trading around $0.00000818 (as of May 4, 2025), with a weekly candlestick pattern of 'Bullish Engulfing' appearing on the weekly timeframe, indicating strong buying momentum that may drive the price up in the coming days (CoinGape, Brave New Coin).
Scenario of upward breakout or downward retracement: If the price rises and surpasses $0.00000950, we may witness an additional upward push towards $0.00001200 during the week, representing a potential increase of about 36% from the current level (CryptoTicker, CryptoTicker).
However, if support is lost at $0.00000800, there may be a downward retracement to $0.00000680, with losses nearing 22% (CryptoTicker, CryptoTicker).
This Bitcoin recovery resembles a knight's rise to the summit after a quick fall: the price has rebounded from its lowest levels in April by about 30%, touching the $97,000 barrier again, which is the highest level in the past two months (Investopedia).
This rebound did not come from nowhere; it occurred due to a strong technical push when the cryptocurrency broke the downward channel and formed a rising 'flag', indicating the entry of new buying momentum leading it towards psychological targets at $100,000 and above (Investopedia, AInvest).
Notably, Bitcoin recorded its strongest weekly gain since the November 2024 elections, with an increase exceeding 10% in just one week, signaling a return of confidence and investors' unwillingness to easily part with 'digital gold' (Medium).
In simple words: Bitcoin jumped back into the ring with full force, proving that it is still capable of taking initiative and leading the recovery in a market that anticipates an upward move in the coming weeks.
A Brief Comparison Between Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH)
Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) are among the leading blockchain platforms in the world, but they differ in vision and performance. Hereâs a quick comparison:
1. Technology and Performance:- - Speed and Cost: - [Solana]: Excels with a speed of up to [65,000 transactions/second] and a nearly free cost (less than $0.01), thanks to the [Proof of History (PoH)] mechanism. - [Ethereum]: Its current speed is [~30 transactions/second] (before upgrades), with sometimes high costs (up to $50), but upgrades like [Ethereum 2.0] aim to improve that.
- [Decentralization and Security]: - [Ethereum]: More decentralized (thousands of nodes) and secure due to years of development. - [Solana]: Faces criticism for focusing on efficiency at the expense of decentralization (around 1,900 nodes only).
2. Use Cases :- - [Ethereum]: Dominates the [Decentralized Finance (DeFi)] and [NFTs] markets, with a massive ecosystem (like Uniswap, OpenSea). - [Solana]: Attracts gaming projects and high-speed applications (like STEPN) due to its low costs.
3. Challenges :- - [Solana]: A history of technical outages and concerns about stability. - [Ethereum]: Its reliance on layer two upgrades (like Arbitrum) to reduce costs, and fierce competition from other chains.
â ïž Reminder: Cryptocurrencies are volatile, so study the project well before investing!
Day traders: Watch for a breakout at 3,500 or a collapse at 3,300. Long-term investors: Ethereum 2.0 upgrades may be a good opportunity.
owraya
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Ethereum (ETH) Analysis Predictions indicate that Ethereum will fluctuate between $1,666 and $4,910 during 2025, with the potential to reach $5,590 in cases of strong bullish momentum, especially after breaking the 50% Fibonacci level at $2,120, which has reduced its bullish targets.
Saylor's Investment in Bitcoin: A Bold Bet on the Future:
In 2020, [Michael Saylor] (CEO of MicroStrategy) announced the conversion of his company's treasury to [Bitcoin], purchasing over [150,000 units] worth billions of dollars. This move made him one of the leading influencers in the cryptocurrency market.
Reasons Behind the Investment: 1. [Protection from Inflation]: The limited supply of Bitcoin (21 million units) makes it an alternative to fiat currencies that are subject to excessive printing. 2. [Financial Independence]: It is not controlled by governments or banks. 3. [Future Growth]: His belief that it will become the "digital gold."
Results and Impact: - MicroStrategy has become one of the largest holders of Bitcoin globally. - The value of its investments has significantly increased, despite market fluctuations. - It encouraged other institutions like [Tesla] to invest in cryptocurrencies.
[Conclusion] Saylor is among the first institutions to bet on Bitcoin as the [future of money]. His bold investment proves that a long-term vision and trust in technology can yield exceptional results.
Bitcoin is not just an asset; it is a new financial system. â Michael Saylor
Ethereum (ETH) Analysis Predictions indicate that Ethereum will fluctuate between $1,666 and $4,910 during 2025, with the potential to reach $5,590 in cases of strong bullish momentum, especially after breaking the 50% Fibonacci level at $2,120, which has reduced its bullish targets.
In the coming months, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a price range of $80,440 to $151,200, with an extended target of $175,000â$185,000 if the bullish momentum continues, supported by an increase in Bitcoin's market share (Bitcoin Dominance) and institutional investment fund adoption.
Key Support: Around $80,440.
First Resistance: At $100,000 (an important psychological level).
Extended Resistance: $175,000â$185,000 (strong Bull Run scenario).