Future Market Pullback Forecast (Market Pullback#MarketPullback )[[[3]]]:

Practical Analysis Based on Current Data:

. Geopolitical Factors and External Risks:-

- Trade tensions

- Rising tensions between China and the West (such as tariffs on electric vehicles) could disrupt supply chains and pressure corporate profits.

. Sector Analysis:

- Technology Sector

- Technology stocks (such as NVIDIA and Microsoft) have risen over 40% since the beginning of 2024, supported by an AI wave. Any decline in profit expectations could lead to a sharp correction.

Timeframe Expectations and Potential Scenarios :-

- **Most Realistic Scenario (65% Probability)**:

- A pullback of 10-15% in major indices (such as S&P 500) during the third quarter of 2024, driven by:

- Weak corporate earnings reports with slowing consumer demand.

- Federal Reserve announcing a delay in interest rate cuts until 2025.

- Geopolitical escalation in Taiwan or the Middle East.

- Shallow Correction Scenario (25% Probability):

- A pullback of 5-8% with a quick recovery, especially if economic data shows resilience (such as declining unemployment or strong job growth).

- **Overly Optimistic Scenario (10% Probability)**:

- Continued rise with the S&P 500 reaching 6,000 points, supported by a boom in AI or widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies.