安知予之乐

Why can't ETH rise? Do you really understand?
In the past two rounds of bull market, ETH was as popular as BTC and was simply a superstar. But this time, ETH obviously underperformed BTC. What's going on? Is it the rise of new public chains such as SOL? In fact, the deeper reason is the "vampire" problem that ETH is facing now: the L2 ecosystem is eroding the market value of ETH.

ETH's "highlight" is a thing of the past
Compared with the peak period of the last bull market, ETH's performance is not very good, and several key indicators are declining:

1. TVL (total locked volume): from 100 billion to 64 billion, a 40% decrease.
2. Protocol income: only 30 million US dollars per week, 500 million at the peak of the last round.
3. Number of active addresses: only 500,000 per day, less than one-third of the previous round.
However, ETH's market value has recovered to 70% of its peak. Judging from these data, ETH seems to be "fat", no wonder some people began to question whether it is overvalued.

L2: ETH's "vampire"
The rise of L2 has indeed brought a better trading experience, with lower GAS fees and faster speed. But at the same time, L2 has also dealt a fatal blow to ETH:
1. TVL was diverted: L2 sucked away 15% of the locked funds.
2. Active address exodus: More than 80% of ETH users have switched to L2.
3. Revenue plummeted: Because L2 reduced the demand for on-chain transactions, ETH's protocol revenue plummeted by 90%.
What's worse is that L2 itself is still growing on its own - tokens like ARB and OP have risen, with market capitalizations of tens of billions, which has completely diverted ETH's market attention.
There are greater hidden dangers in the future
If you think ETH has bottomed out, it may be a bit too optimistic:
1. BASE may issue coins: If Coinbase's L2 network BASE starts issuing coins, this will further snatch ETH's capital flow.
2. UNICHAIN ​​rumors: If big players like Uniswap also migrate to L2 to build their own chains, ETH's burning mechanism will be almost useless.
Moreover, ETH's market value model originally relied on GAS fee burning to achieve deflation, but the existence of L2 makes all this empty talk. Do you think L2 is a good helper for ETH? No, in fact, it is slowly draining the value of ETH.

Can ETH still rise?
The answer is that it can rise, but don't expect it to rise as much as before. The rise of L2 has turned ETH from a former giant into a "strong on the outside but weak on the inside" character.Do you think ETH can return to its former glory?

Every bull market is like this. Didn't the bull market of 20 years experience this?

BTC rises first, attracting a lot of funds. When it reaches over 30,000, its market share reaches about 70%. At this point, altcoins start to surge wildly.

At first, everyone complains about altcoins every day: BTC rises while altcoins fall, BTC is sideways while altcoins fall, BTC falls and altcoins continue to follow.

If you truly have the ability to see the problem from a global perspective, then when the market share is low, exchange all funds for BTC, and then when BTC rises to 80,000 or 90,000, exchange back to those altcoins that haven't risen.

But 95% of people do not have this ability, and I am certainly no exception.

So rather than complaining daily and showcasing one’s incompetence, it’s better to review and strive for a better perspective in the next bull market.

Will there be callbacks? Where is the bottom?

It's pretty much the bottom now. If you have funds, buy the dip; if you don’t, just hold tight and don’t panic sell, especially don’t cut your losses. Don't collapse before dawn.

The extreme limit is probably around 4050. Even if it drops a bit more, it’s not a big deal.

Let’s talk about the altcoin issue that everyone is concerned about, and rewind to June.

At that time, Ethereum rose from 2800 and then got smashed back down to 2200; Dogecoin fell directly from 0.26 to 0.14, nearly halving; other altcoins were even worse, with blood flowing like rivers.

This time, history is repeating itself, with Ethereum dropping from 4800 to 4100, but Dogecoin only fell from 0.26 to 0.21, showing much better resistance. Looking at other decent assets, Solana is still at 180, Uniswap is still at 10 dollars, Lido is at 1.3, and Chainlink is even at 25.

It's worth noting that during that wave of retracement in June, Chainlink was smashed down to 10 dollars, directly hitting the bottom.

So, this round of altcoin washout and bottoming process is basically complete. I shared some data a couple of days ago showing that large holders are smashing Ethereum to buy Chainlink, indicating that we are now in the final stage of the bull market, with funds from Ethereum flowing into quality altcoins, and it's about to be the altcoins' time to explode.

Speaking of Chainlink's 10 dollar bottom, let's also address the notion that “altcoins have no bottom when they drop,” which is actually incorrect. If you buy those worthless coins, then of course there's no bottom. But if you buy some reliable quality assets, they do have a definitive bottom; no matter how much they drop, they won't go below a certain point. For instance, Lido's bottom is 0.6, and Chainlink's bottom is 10, which is the lowest point during the major washout on April 7. No matter how much they retrace afterwards, these good coins won’t fall below this level again.

Of course, if you choose to argue with me about garbage like OP, that’s not my concern; if you're looking for recommendations for those worthless coins, go find someone else. My bullish view on altcoins is only for the quality coins I recognize.

So why do I dare say these coins can at least double? Because they have already risen more than double from the bottom; no matter how much they retrace, they cannot return to the extreme low point of April 7.

Unless a truly world-class black swan event occurs, which is unavoidable, then I would have to concede. But historically, black swan events almost always occur after interest rate hikes, which is very unlikely. Therefore, I can confidently say: there will not be an explosion, and other coins will also rise.

In this way, it is remarkably similar to the decline in early August:

/ Cumulative decline of about 15%
/ Deliberately breaking support
/ RSI reaching the bottom

After the adjustment in early August, there was a continuous increase of 42%, this time ___

In the short term, regardless of how ETH moves next, some altcoins like PEPE, WIF, and SUI have basically reached a temporary peak. Even if there is a rebound later, it will at most be a small rebound at the daily level. Don't have too many illusions about altcoins; the liquidity in the crypto market simply cannot support so many worthless coins. Even if new funds come in, they won't focus on these garbage coins right now.

Link has come back to the bottom again!!!

AOL also copied 1wu, I didn't sell my coins last time when it hit a new high.

In the second half of the year, there will be a big influx of money, waiting for the counterfeit leader Link to pull up crazily, and I'm most looking forward to WLFI bringing me profits.

After that, I'll just go with the flow, withdrawing and taking profits, leaving 30wu on the exchange to play slowly, securing a stable 1mu for retirement, and keeping another 30wu to chase short-term hotspots.

Is Sol the ultimate destination for on-chain Memes?

Have you noticed that no matter how much the on-chain space turns and rotates—whether it's the Zora family bucket or the emergence of X Layer—one must admit that the biggest casino is always on Solana.

The real grand narratives and large market values often lie in Sol (still a bit too authoritative). But Sol's biggest problem is 'competition':

There are many professional trading and analysis tools, developers are becoming increasingly specialized, there are many big players, many conspiracy groups, the pace is fast, dumb money is scarce, and the launchpad is a chaotic battleground (Bonk, Pump, etc.), extreme PVP, and the overall liquidity environment is poor... all these issues add up.

Friends who were around during the Trump era on-chain should empathize; back then, sitting patiently and seriously scanning the chain could yield results. But later, it became hellishly difficult for retail investors. Even I found it hard. After adjusting for a while and re-examining on-chain gameplay with a new approach and perspective, I've slowly begun to catch up with the pace.

Recently, the Spark has also barely allowed me to take a bite; if I don’t improve, I will really be left behind by the market. As far as I know, many friends with insufficient understanding of on-chain have recently lost quite a bit.

But to be honest, I think on-chain gameplay is still simpler compared to the secondary market. The overall market looks operational, but altcoins can explode at any moment—one macro negative news, and the market dips a bit, and altcoins suffer even more. Many people holding altcoins are getting battered daily, staring at their positions, and the result is that anxiety only increases.

PLUME is now live on Binance!

Before the listing on Binance, the daily trading volume was approximately between 50 million and 80 million USD. After the listing, the daily trading volume skyrocketed to 284 million USD!

PLUME achieved a significant increase of +23.69%—rising from an entry price of 0.0972 to a peak of 0.1209, completely surpassing all expected targets.

Currently, PLUME has completed a clear H&S pattern and is now testing the key resistance level around 0.118 to 0.159 USD. If it breaks above and closes over 0.159 USD, it could trigger upward momentum towards 0.21 to 0.26 USD. This area is crucial as it will confirm whether the bullish trend can continue.

Shorting must definitely target weak coins—those that have fallen harder than the market and rebound weaker than the market are your true shorting targets.

Never be tempted to see a certain coin that remains still or even rises while the market is crashing, and think, "Awesome! This coin must correct soon, I'll short it!"

Stop! This thought can lead to huge losses; I’ve lost real money stepping on landmines before! There may be reasons for it not falling: strong investors protecting it, good news supporting it, or perhaps it's just loyal supporters holding the line. Just because you think it should drop doesn’t mean the market agrees! The so-called corrective drop is completely speculative; you think it should fall, but it might not fall at all! In fact, if the market rebounds slightly, it might just surprise you with a sudden surge! When the market rebounds, resilient coins might actually surge the most, and if you short them, you could get liquidated in an instant—I've experienced this firsthand!

So, when shorting, you need to follow the trend and pick on the weak. Look for those that are already down and struggling to get back up; they are more likely to continue sliding downwards.

Resilient coins are likely to rise. Don’t stubbornly short them; their refusal to fall often means they are strong!

To summarize: the strong remain strong, and the weak will become weaker.

LINK may need to turn around

First, the daily RSI has shown a bearish divergence, indicating overbought conditions;

Moreover, the significant volume doji from yesterday clearly encountered strong resistance, signaling a potential reversal. If it breaks below yesterday's low, the reversal will almost be confirmed.

Don't forget, the overall market is currently in a pullback, and it's difficult for LINK to rise against the trend.

So, in summary, LINK is likely to reverse, and there is a high probability of a significant pullback ahead.

From a risk-reward perspective, it is also a good shorting option.

First, let's hand in this short quiz on the recent ETH market:

✅ Predicted the low point around 4260, actually hit 4225, with an error of 35 dollars.

✅ Predicted a drop of about 7%, actually accumulated a drop of 7.65%.

✅ Predicted a rebound oscillation after the drop, and it is currently moving in this rhythm.

Overall, the drop was approximately 0.65% more than I expected. I believe the main reason is that during this drop, large holders' long positions were triggered for stop-loss/liquidation, coupled with the decline of Bitcoin, which directly pushed the market down a little further.

What can inspire everyone is:

You can change the current K-line to a 15-minute level and notice that the amplitude of each K-line during the oscillation is significantly larger than before, with greater volatility and more active trading volume. Think about it, why would the market makers want to create such a market? What intentions might be behind it?

Why do the elderly always say not to eat fish tails?

Because the little profit you can make from fish tails is far outweighed by the potential losses from not getting out. The fish tail might only rise by 10%, but it is very likely to be followed by a 50% crash.

The so-called fish tail market these days mostly relies on a rebound or widespread imitation. Last year's example is very typical: starting from December 9th, the imitation market oscillated upward for about a week, but then it continued to decline, going lower and lower; by the 20th, many coins had almost halved in value. A month later, when Trump issued his coin, the small cycle seemed to have come to an end.

I sincerely hope that history does not repeat itself this time.

Whenever Link surges in weekly charts, it always triggers a wave of super altcoin trends, and it is always 1-2 weeks ahead of the market, the true leader of altcoins! This time Link rose 50% in two weeks, and the situation is similar:

1. In mid-October 2023, after Link's surge, numerous tenfold coins emerged in the BRC20 ecosystem and Solana ecosystem, lasting nearly 2 months;

2. In early February 2024, after Link's surge, a plethora of tenfold coins appeared in the CEX+DEX meme ecosystem and AI sector, lasting about 1 month;

3. In early November 2024, after Link's surge, payment-related XRP and XLM surged tenfold, and the phenomenon of AI agents began to explode, with hundredfold coins appearing consecutively, lasting about 1 month;

4. In early August 2025, Link surged again, MYX increased 20x+ in just a few days; in my opinion, this is just an appetizer, the spring for some valuable coins and small altcoins is coming.

Recently, I've noticed major players on-chain are reallocating to Link. On one hand, ETH does not offer high cost-effectiveness, but they still want to compound returns, and naturally, Link, which can accommodate large funds and has versatile narratives, is the first choice. What about smaller investors? To compound returns, they have to play with small altcoins and valuable coins. A rotation of funds is currently unfolding, and we might see results within a week.

Note: The green line represents total3, indicating the overall market value of altcoins.

Let's break down the short-term tactics of the ETH operators in detail, and why the level is set around 4260. Just mentioning this once.

After ETH broke below 4500, it has hit a new recent low, which basically confirms that it is still following the 'three-wave downward' pattern, and it's becoming increasingly obvious. How to understand:

/ First wave down: drops about 7%, then rebounds 5%

/ Second wave down: still drops 7%, then rebounds 5%

/ Third wave?

According to common tactics, it usually goes through three waves. The third wave would drop around 7%, with the level around 4260. After that, it either rebounds immediately or consolidates after rebounding.

I mentioned this logic yesterday; you can look back at it. At that time, I thought that if I were to operate, there would definitely be another drop of around 7% to wash out the floating positions again and confirm that the market is clean.

Is it possible to make a wrong judgment? Of course, it is possible. I am just making a guess based on experience and understanding of the operators' habits. For reference only, mentioning this just once.

A few days ago, OKB skyrocketed from $46 to $144 in just one day. At that time, I suggested at least swapping half of the position to BNB.

Of course, you can also keep some position to wait for $200 and sell in batches.

The core logic is: I believe the upside potential of OKB is not as good as that of BNB!

There are several reasons behind this:

First, before this wave of explosive growth, OKB had been consolidating at low levels. Most of those who held it at low prices are seasoned players who can endure the loneliness and believe that OKB is undervalued.

Now, most of those entering at high prices are speculators.

In the short term, OKB's volatility is too intense, and many people want to enter and exit quickly, which increases the volatility (making it unstable). As a result, there are fewer stable chips that can be held, and more impatient speculative trades.

In contrast, BNB's volatility is not as dramatic, so its trend is more stable, and it is easier for people to hold on when it breaks new highs instead of frequently trading short-term.

On the OKB side, there are too many short-term traders, leading to an unstable upward rhythm. It is highly likely that it will first fill the gap between $48 and $144, experiencing wide fluctuations.

Therefore, the fluctuations and back-and-forth movements of OKB will definitely be much more than that of BNB.

However, this does not mean that there are no opportunities for OKB in the future; it still has the potential to continue rising, and it may even outperform BTC and XRP.

For example, in the later stages of a bull market, when market sentiment is extremely greedy, it could reach $200 or even higher; that is not impossible.

It's just that my judgment is: BNB has greater potential in the future.

Previously, when OKB was in the $40s, I mentioned its great potential, and many people didn't believe it. Now that OKB has risen to over $120, I actually feel that its risk-reward ratio is not as advantageous as it was before, and its subsequent gains are still less than that of BNB.

The BNB price reaching $1000 is almost a certainty.

It is no longer just a "platform token" or simply a gas fee for public chains. Now even the big shots on Wall Street are seriously considering buying in.

CEA purchased $160 million worth of BNB, and a bunch of institutions subscribed to a $500 million BNB treasury fund.

Why is it so popular? On one hand, BSC carries the value of the entire crypto market:

Almost all on-chain projects and new CEX projects

yzi labs investment & MVB

Main site token listing & holders drop

BSC new project listings & meme projects

On the other hand, it also supports small cross-border transfers, with costs as low as $0.01-$0.03, making it particularly suitable for Southeast Asia and Latin America.

So the current BNB:

Users are entering the market with their "golden shovels"

Developers are actively participating in construction

Institutions are making strategic layouts

The next stop is likely to be the core area of Wall Street.

Looking back 2-3 years ago, BNB was still a token with a long-term negative fee rate, progressing step by step through the growing pains.

It’s truly remarkable; the ups and downs of the crypto market, the sifting of the sands, and the turbulent sea reveal the true heroes.

Talking about the OKX grid experiment I did a few days ago:

A total of 200 grids were run for 4 days and 5 hours, with each grid being 0.005 BTC.

The interval was set to short between 85,000-140,000. Since it was an experimental nature, the opening position was rather random, approximately around 118, and it has now been closed.

I used 10x leverage, occupying a margin of less than 20,000 USDT, with a total position of 120,000 USDT.

Summary of experiences:

Each arbitrage trade can earn about 1 USDT, which currently seems to cover the transaction fees.

The earnings are mainly divided into two parts: one is arbitrage, and the other is holding the correct directional position. However, for the second part of the earnings, if you are a short-term trader, manually opening positions might be more cost-effective. Because when you open the correct direction, the grid will gradually close the position, which is not as flexible as operating it yourself.

Conclusion: This grid strategy is more suitable for those who are patient, not good at short-term trading, but want to steadily earn a profit in a volatile market. Friends like me, who are impatient and prefer short-term operations, are not very suitable for this.

Don't compare cryptocurrencies!

If you like a project, just look at it for what it is, don't always think about how it stacks up against others.

Those that compare themselves to Bitcoin are mostly gone; those that compare themselves to Ethereum are also slowly fading away. And don't even get started on those on-chain.

Referencing Dogecoin—what about SHIB, WIF, PUNT, GOAT, FARTCOIN…? Trends come one after another, but what’s the result?

Don't even talk about surpassing; just getting close to the market cap is a challenge.

Looking forward in the entire market, anything that relies on “comparison” ultimately doesn’t go far.

Isn’t the current $SPARK that’s comparing itself to $GOAT just the same old play?

To put it simply, anything that’s compared will have its expectations compressed, and the final performance won’t be too good.

So remember: it is what it is, don’t insist on calling it the “next so-and-so.” Don’t set your expectations too high,

because true surprises often come quietly.