睡刀樂

#btc #比特

4/21 Bitcoin Market Analysis

The current market is fluctuating around 88k, accumulating long and short positions. Currently, the long-short ratio is severely imbalanced, with too many people shorting!

Many may think that the recent decline in the US stock market will lead Bitcoin to drop as well, but the current market state shows that Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and gradually exhibiting characteristics of a safe-haven asset, possibly due to funds fleeing from US bonds and stocks into the crypto space.

Now that the price is at this level, there is a significant amount of liquidity around 89-90k, and there is no doubt that it will come to absorb this liquidity! The current question to determine is whether it will stay above or just briefly break through and then pull back after consuming the liquidity!

Key price level: 88900

This price is the bottom support level of the upper range 89k-11k. If it breaks through with volume and stays above 88900, and continues to fluctuate upward after a few retests, market sentiment will be ignited, and everyone will start to chase long positions!

Currently, there are several entry points for increasing positions:
1. 83900
2. 86500

The third point will be 88900. This price level today will likely be reached by burning short positions and rapidly pushing upwards. Close attention is needed to monitor whether the price can effectively support 88900 after a retest, without quickly falling back down!
1. If it retests upward, positions can be increased.
2. If the price quickly falls after consuming the short fuel, it indicates a large number of long positions exiting, which may trigger a correction, aiming for a target of 76-78k.

Personally, I hope to hit the stop losses at this level and undergo a major correction, as this will provide a second opportunity to enter at a lower position. Currently, the trend is to stop the decline and initiate a rebound, but the current market is not a clear upward trend, but rather a rebound. It needs a major correction to create a higher point before continuing to rise to form a consensus on an upward trend!

Strategy:
If it fakes a breakout at 88900, close long positions and chase shorts, targeting 76-78k, with a stop-loss set at 95k, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.

If it breaks through 88900 and establishes a stable position, increase long positions, set the stop-loss at 86500, with the first take-profit target at 95000 and the second take-profit target will depend on the price reaction after it goes up.

#BTC走势分析

Simple Guess Analysis

In terms of the larger trend, Bitcoin has broken away from the three-month descending trend line suppression and is currently in a consolidation phase, which is the macro environment trend.

Today, Bitcoin inexplicably broke through the 83-86k range with volume,
Along with breaking away from the descending trend line suppression, it is currently very optimistic for a rebound, not a reversal, but a rebound.

Regarding a reversal, as per the daily chart, the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom has not yet formed; the double bottom structure on the daily chart is not obvious. Looking back at last year's trend, if the operator is in control, there will be a clear signal painted at the bottom indicating a double bottom or head and shoulders bottom. Currently, it is leaning towards a head and shoulders bottom.

However, trading is not based on guessing; it relies on imagination!

1. Assuming a head and shoulders bottom pattern is drawn, currently lacking a right shoulder, how to depict it? First, pull high to eat liquidity and then crash => Predicting a spike around 75-78k, looking at the liquidity area at a high of around 88-90k, it is estimated that it can spike to 90k. If it reaches around 90k in this pressure area and breaks through with volume to stabilize at 90k! Then congratulations, you can look at 95k, this maximum handover area, trapped area, if it goes above 95k again, new highs can be expected.

2. Recently, if it repeatedly tests 83900 without breaking down, and directly pulls up with volume to break away from the 83-86k range, currently in consolidation, if it does not form a right shoulder and directly starts the movement, then I hope to see a retest at around 86443, about 86500. After a retest, if it continues to push up, there is a chance of directly starting the movement; otherwise, today's surge must be viewed as very dangerous, the goal is to eat liquidity estimated to reach 88-90k. The final surge to eat liquidity is because the shorts stop-loss, and the explosive movement easily leads to consecutive spikes. This surge to eat liquidity also aims to clear out the upper chips, benefiting the pull-up after a correction.

Opening Strategy:

For those currently holding long positions, it is recommended to take profit near 88-90k, as this is the most dangerous moment when the price is around this area. Observe whether it stabilizes at 90k or if the price quickly drops (the operator's long positions are being closed). This time will be very short, estimated at 30-60 minutes, just a few candlesticks, you will find it difficult to react and judge in real time. If you observe a rapid drop in price with volume, it is recommended to take profit directly and open a short position.

For those without positions, wait for the price to come to 88-90, observe the price reaction here. If it stabilizes, retest 90k to confirm stabilization and go long; if the hourly chart spikes around 90k, go short with a target of 75-78k.

#ETH

#trump #特朗普上任前风向分析

Trump's crypto wallet is crazily buying ETH
At the time of this post, it is still continuously buying ETH

Will there be a wave of good news?
$ETH