Bitcoin trend reversal has risen like this, various altcoins are preparing to reverse as well, don't short it!
IQ努力不爆仓
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Bearish
The trend of $ENA has always been in a daily downward trend channel, and the current price has reached the upper resistance level, being suppressed by the Bollinger Bands. Open short at 0.345, with a very good risk-reward ratio! Stop loss at 0.36.
The current market is fluctuating around 88k, accumulating long and short positions. Currently, the long-short ratio is severely imbalanced, with too many people shorting!
Many may think that the recent decline in the US stock market will lead Bitcoin to drop as well, but the current market state shows that Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and gradually exhibiting characteristics of a safe-haven asset, possibly due to funds fleeing from US bonds and stocks into the crypto space.
Now that the price is at this level, there is a significant amount of liquidity around 89-90k, and there is no doubt that it will come to absorb this liquidity! The current question to determine is whether it will stay above or just briefly break through and then pull back after consuming the liquidity!
Key price level: 88900
This price is the bottom support level of the upper range 89k-11k. If it breaks through with volume and stays above 88900, and continues to fluctuate upward after a few retests, market sentiment will be ignited, and everyone will start to chase long positions!
Currently, there are several entry points for increasing positions: 1. 83900 2. 86500
The third point will be 88900. This price level today will likely be reached by burning short positions and rapidly pushing upwards. Close attention is needed to monitor whether the price can effectively support 88900 after a retest, without quickly falling back down! 1. If it retests upward, positions can be increased. 2. If the price quickly falls after consuming the short fuel, it indicates a large number of long positions exiting, which may trigger a correction, aiming for a target of 76-78k.
Personally, I hope to hit the stop losses at this level and undergo a major correction, as this will provide a second opportunity to enter at a lower position. Currently, the trend is to stop the decline and initiate a rebound, but the current market is not a clear upward trend, but rather a rebound. It needs a major correction to create a higher point before continuing to rise to form a consensus on an upward trend!
Strategy: If it fakes a breakout at 88900, close long positions and chase shorts, targeting 76-78k, with a stop-loss set at 95k, the risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
If it breaks through 88900 and establishes a stable position, increase long positions, set the stop-loss at 86500, with the first take-profit target at 95000 and the second take-profit target will depend on the price reaction after it goes up.
In terms of the larger trend, Bitcoin has broken away from the three-month descending trend line suppression and is currently in a consolidation phase, which is the macro environment trend.
Today, Bitcoin inexplicably broke through the 83-86k range with volume, Along with breaking away from the descending trend line suppression, it is currently very optimistic for a rebound, not a reversal, but a rebound.
Regarding a reversal, as per the daily chart, the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom has not yet formed; the double bottom structure on the daily chart is not obvious. Looking back at last year's trend, if the operator is in control, there will be a clear signal painted at the bottom indicating a double bottom or head and shoulders bottom. Currently, it is leaning towards a head and shoulders bottom.
However, trading is not based on guessing; it relies on imagination!
1. Assuming a head and shoulders bottom pattern is drawn, currently lacking a right shoulder, how to depict it? First, pull high to eat liquidity and then crash => Predicting a spike around 75-78k, looking at the liquidity area at a high of around 88-90k, it is estimated that it can spike to 90k. If it reaches around 90k in this pressure area and breaks through with volume to stabilize at 90k! Then congratulations, you can look at 95k, this maximum handover area, trapped area, if it goes above 95k again, new highs can be expected.
2. Recently, if it repeatedly tests 83900 without breaking down, and directly pulls up with volume to break away from the 83-86k range, currently in consolidation, if it does not form a right shoulder and directly starts the movement, then I hope to see a retest at around 86443, about 86500. After a retest, if it continues to push up, there is a chance of directly starting the movement; otherwise, today's surge must be viewed as very dangerous, the goal is to eat liquidity estimated to reach 88-90k. The final surge to eat liquidity is because the shorts stop-loss, and the explosive movement easily leads to consecutive spikes. This surge to eat liquidity also aims to clear out the upper chips, benefiting the pull-up after a correction.
Opening Strategy:
For those currently holding long positions, it is recommended to take profit near 88-90k, as this is the most dangerous moment when the price is around this area. Observe whether it stabilizes at 90k or if the price quickly drops (the operator's long positions are being closed). This time will be very short, estimated at 30-60 minutes, just a few candlesticks, you will find it difficult to react and judge in real time. If you observe a rapid drop in price with volume, it is recommended to take profit directly and open a short position.
For those without positions, wait for the price to come to 88-90, observe the price reaction here. If it stabilizes, retest 90k to confirm stabilization and go long; if the hourly chart spikes around 90k, go short with a target of 75-78k.
Such a low-level scam, and there are still people falling for it. Is the money from the 'chives' just blown in by the wind? A few million just disappeared like that.
Three months ago, news of various giant whales buying in was everywhere, and as a result, the market kept plunging. Now that the bottom has emerged, all kinds of panic news are flying around, and it is estimated that a big rebound in the market is about to happen.
奔跑财经-FinaceRun
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Will Strategy Be Forced to Sell BTC? Michael Saylor Responds Urgently!
As a steadfast holder of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy, has boldly bet on Bitcoin for many years, leading the company's main strategic direction with this approach.
However, the recent 8-K filing submitted by Strategy to the SEC has triggered a wave of panic in the market.
The disclosure in the filing reveals that Strategy holds a reserve of 528,000 Bitcoins (average purchase price of $67,458), but its core enterprise software business has not generated positive operating cash flow.
In addition, the company carries $8.22 billion in debt and faces an annual contractual interest burden of $35.1 million.
Although the company has taken on a massive annual dividend of $146.2 million and issued over $1.6 billion in preferred stock, these debts and dividends are also an invisible mountain.
The document also mentions that if the price of Bitcoin drops significantly, the company's financing may become difficult, and they may even incur losses and sell some BTC to meet debt obligations.
This risk not only concerns MicroStrategy itself; a large-scale sell-off would break the market expectation of 'institutions only buying and not selling,' potentially triggering a downward spiral in both stock and cryptocurrency prices, and even testing the feasibility of Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset.
In the face of the crisis, company founder Michael Saylor responded on the X platform with just the word 'HODL' (Hold On for Dear Life), demonstrating his consistent tough stance. This biggest believer in Bitcoin has repeatedly stated that 'he will not sell even a single Satoshi of Bitcoin,' indicating that Saylor remains confident in Bitcoin.
Conclusion:
Strategy is at a critical point of 'stress testing' for corporate Bitcoin holdings, facing the choice of steadfastly adhering to beliefs and continuing to 'HODL,' or compromising with financial realities. This decision not only concerns the company's own fate but may also reshape the institutionalization process of the entire cryptocurrency market.
If Strategy can successfully navigate this crisis, it may establish a benchmark model for publicly traded companies holding BTC; however, if forced to sell, it could shake confidence in the institutionalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.
Do you think that based on Strategy's current holding cost, the company can cope with financial risks? Between financial pressure and belief, what do you think Michael Saylor will ultimately choose?
Openly and brazenly underreporting, the United States directly uses anti-dumping to seal you off
分析师舒琴
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Bullish
I'm confused, how should China handle this now? 😭 Great power competition, with the Eastern power taking the lead to confront directly. Trump raised tariffs today and immediately retaliated tomorrow, seemingly waiting for the US stock market and the job market to collapse, hoping Trump will back down. Unexpectedly, Trump is so 'flexible', directly pulling the rug out from under everyone, temporarily exempting the whole world from tariffs, leaving only China with them. I estimate that even the Chinese and retail investors from various countries are quite confused. Can one act like this? Messing around?
However, let's not underestimate China's wisdom. Previously, a product worth 10 yuan had a tariff of 2 yuan. Now, when exporting, they might declare the price of this product at 3 yuan (while it's still actually 10), so with a 100% tariff, they would only add 3 yuan in tariffs. This method could be a way to evade taxes, and some local governments might just turn a blind eye.
Currently, I'm focused on whether China will continue to retaliate proportionately today. However, I think since Trump has acted this way, China will likely find a way to start negotiations, as this tax rate is unsustainable. Ultimately, it will certainly be reduced through some negotiations. Shuqin hopes this storm can end soon.
I also bought this coin, the market makers are working hard to save it, but the overall trend is downward and the market makers are powerless.
GokU_-
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Bullish
#ENA A long time ago, I had already posted several times about Ena. To be honest, I think #ENA has relatively low attention, but this coin indeed has the ability to keep rising. I bought it at a low price today and look forward to it breaking 1 in the next three months. Buying altcoins is not as good as buying stablecoins!🔥
The following information is about AI's analysis of the trend of #ENA E.
Under the historical level of policy, no technical analysis or technical indicators are useful; it's just an endless decline. As long as the Federal Reserve does not immediately implement significant rate cuts and expand its balance sheet, it is impossible to reverse the trend.
I just took a look at the recent drop, which may be related to two factors. The first factor is that the European Union is about to approve retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including whiskey, semiconductors, and toilet paper, in direct response to Trump's increased tariffs on EU steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The timing of the drop coincides with the main trading hours in the U.S. and Europe, which should have little correlation with Asia. Additionally, considering that Bitcoin also experienced a spike after China's countermeasures last Friday, this may not be ruled out as a reason.
Secondly, it has also been reported that there is an increasing divergence between the two parties in the U.S. regarding Trump's foreign policy, which may affect the upcoming support in Congress. What the U.S. currently needs is more stability, especially since the entire risk market has seen a significant decline since Trump took office, and there are many dissatisfied voices coming from Wall Street.
Lastly, we can see that although the price of $BTC has dropped, the trading volume has not increased significantly. This suggests that the main driving forces are the panic and risk-averse sentiments of some investors, rather than the exit of major institutions.
PS: Is it possible that a certain big shot in Hong Kong was knocked out or BTC was settled? (Just a joke)
This tweet is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
Thinking deeply is terrifying!! If this time there wasn't this market maker staunchly providing a large amount of liquidity around 80000-83000! Bitcoin would have long dropped to the price of 60000!! Because the US stock market has already fallen from 5650 to 5100!!! What do you think will happen if the market maker removes the support liquidity supply area at 80000!! Do you think it will crash?? $BTC
If you don't hold the market, step down. Upgrading the system keeps getting postponed. What is going on? It's not like we just asked him to upgrade yesterday and expect results tomorrow. This has been established for six months already. The delays are ridiculous. If you can't produce the results, just say so. Don't rush to get something out that ends up having vulnerabilities and gets attacked by hackers, causing the market to crash.
Crypto飞哥
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In this bull market, the performance of ETH has indeed been quite disappointing, not living up to expectations. I often criticize ETH, but at the end of the day, I've never blamed Vitalik.
In my eyes, he has always been the cleanest one. Compared to those founders who are shrewd to the core, he seems more like a big boy who accidentally stumbled into this game. At the Ethereum conference a few days ago, he wore a hippo shirt and a Milady mask on stage—just this kind of person, still quietly supporting the community he once believed in, in his own way.
I can be disappointed in ETH, but I won't project my emotions onto Vitalik. I've never criticized him, not even once.
What truly makes me sigh is those voices that once elevated him to a pedestal and then quickly pushed him down. He was never a god and never pretended to be one. He has never claimed to be a savior, nor promised anyone riches. He is merely a genius young man, smart and technically skilled, but he doesn't understand the complexities of human nature, nor does he need to pay for others' fantasies. He is just a coding genius, not good at expressing himself, not understanding the market, and certainly not grasping how complicated human emotions can be.
But it is precisely this kind of person who is burdened with too much hope and also carries too much disappointment.
I don't know where Ethereum will go, nor do I know how long he can hold on, but I know—Vitalik should not be the one to be blamed.
Why is BTC at $81,000 so resilient?! The tough tariff policy exceeded everyone's expectations, the VIX skyrocketed, and the S&P and Nasdaq plummeted... According to past trends, BTC should have long entered the $70,000s, or even the $60,000s would not be unreasonable. But the fact is, BTC has repeatedly found effective support at $81,000! Many friends are confused by this, believing that it makes no sense to find such strong support here. Since it seems unreasonable on a macro level, is there a possibility of finding some basis on a micro level? (Figure 1) Figure 1 is a chip structure chart distinguished by long-term and short-term holders; the left side mostly consists of long-term holders (LTH), while the right side consists of short-term holders (STH); and in the middle of these two regions is a sensitive and important overlapping area — $81,000.
But Ethereum hasn't been constantly issuing more, so where does the inflation come from? The current amount is just what it is.
加密交易书
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【Exclusive Reveal! The Truth Behind Ethereum's Plunge Exposed! ETH Actually Falls into the 'Inflation Trap', It's Not Unjustified!】
Once the 'number one star' in the crypto world, Ethereum is now retreating step by step! The price of ETH not only fell below $1800 but has plummeted over 60% from its peak price of $4000! What exactly happened?
Tragic! Ethereum is trapped in a 'death spiral'
According to CryptoQuant analysis, Ethereum is being dragged into the abyss by three major killers:
Dramatic drop in network activity
The number of active addresses has significantly decreased, and on-chain transaction fees have hit a historical low.
Destruction mechanism failure
Since the 'Merge' transitioned to PoS, ETH, which should have been deflationary, has now returned to an inflationary track!
Dencun upgrade has 'backfired'
Although transactions have become cheaper, it has also led to reduced gas consumption, causing ETH destruction to decline significantly, further diluting its value.
Why is ETH struggling to escape the fate of decline?
The inflation rate remains high, the number of coins issued is increasing, but no one is using them.
On-chain activity is declining, with significant reductions in ecosystems like DeFi and NFTs.
The drawbacks of the upgrade are becoming apparent, as the cheap transaction costs are undermining the core value of ETH.
As analyst EgyHash stated: 'Without sufficient usage, the destruction mechanism is simply out of the question.'
Is there hope?
For ETH to recover, there is only one key: to make the network 'heat up' again!
Only with an increase in active addresses and rising gas prices can destruction keep pace with minting, giving ETH a chance to return to a deflationary track.
Current data overview:
Current price: $1790
Daily drop: 4%
Monthly drop: 16%
Drop from peak: over 60%
Recent US trade tariff policies have also added external pressure to ETH prices.
Summary: The myth is shattered, and reality is awakening!
Don't be superstitious about Ethereum's 'long bull myth' anymore!
Without users and without heat, even the strongest technology is just a castle in the air.
Stunned! ETH's plunge back before liberation is not a coincidence, but a step-by-step walk into its own inflation trap!