#BTC走势分析

Simple Guess Analysis

In terms of the larger trend, Bitcoin has broken away from the three-month descending trend line suppression and is currently in a consolidation phase, which is the macro environment trend.

Today, Bitcoin inexplicably broke through the 83-86k range with volume,

Along with breaking away from the descending trend line suppression, it is currently very optimistic for a rebound, not a reversal, but a rebound.

Regarding a reversal, as per the daily chart, the right shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom has not yet formed; the double bottom structure on the daily chart is not obvious. Looking back at last year's trend, if the operator is in control, there will be a clear signal painted at the bottom indicating a double bottom or head and shoulders bottom. Currently, it is leaning towards a head and shoulders bottom.

However, trading is not based on guessing; it relies on imagination!

1. Assuming a head and shoulders bottom pattern is drawn, currently lacking a right shoulder, how to depict it? First, pull high to eat liquidity and then crash => Predicting a spike around 75-78k, looking at the liquidity area at a high of around 88-90k, it is estimated that it can spike to 90k. If it reaches around 90k in this pressure area and breaks through with volume to stabilize at 90k! Then congratulations, you can look at 95k, this maximum handover area, trapped area, if it goes above 95k again, new highs can be expected.

2. Recently, if it repeatedly tests 83900 without breaking down, and directly pulls up with volume to break away from the 83-86k range, currently in consolidation, if it does not form a right shoulder and directly starts the movement, then I hope to see a retest at around 86443, about 86500. After a retest, if it continues to push up, there is a chance of directly starting the movement; otherwise, today's surge must be viewed as very dangerous, the goal is to eat liquidity estimated to reach 88-90k. The final surge to eat liquidity is because the shorts stop-loss, and the explosive movement easily leads to consecutive spikes. This surge to eat liquidity also aims to clear out the upper chips, benefiting the pull-up after a correction.

Opening Strategy:

For those currently holding long positions, it is recommended to take profit near 88-90k, as this is the most dangerous moment when the price is around this area. Observe whether it stabilizes at 90k or if the price quickly drops (the operator's long positions are being closed). This time will be very short, estimated at 30-60 minutes, just a few candlesticks, you will find it difficult to react and judge in real time. If you observe a rapid drop in price with volume, it is recommended to take profit directly and open a short position.

For those without positions, wait for the price to come to 88-90, observe the price reaction here. If it stabilizes, retest 90k to confirm stabilization and go long; if the hourly chart spikes around 90k, go short with a target of 75-78k.