The interest rate cut in September is basically a 90% probability. The difference is whether it will be a cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Currently, Goldman Sachs is already hinting at the option of a 50 basis point cut. The actions of the Federal Reserve this year are actually a bit similar to last year; in July, when it should have cut rates, they held firm and did not cut, resulting in consecutive disappointing employment data, leading to a significant cut of 50 basis points in September.
The same is true this year; when it should have cut rates in July, Powell did not cut, and it is estimated that a âsupplementaryâ rate cut will happen in September. Of course, looking back now, the reason Powell held off on cutting rates in July was to protect Wall Street and Jewish capital, allowing them to smoothly withdraw from the U.S. stock market. If there had been a rate cut in July, they would not have completed their withdrawal. Now it is basically about done, so a decisive rate cut in September is possible.