哒哒的马蹄

Prime Minister of Pakistan states readiness for battle

#印巴战争

Source: RT (Russia Today)

On May 7 local time, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated in a speech at the National Assembly of Pakistan that the Pakistani armed forces 'are fully prepared and ready to confront enemy aircraft and shoot them down into the sea.'
Sharif reiterated that 'Pakistan is not involved in the (Pahalgam) terror attack' and expressed Pakistan's willingness to cooperate fully with the international committee to 'investigate this attack in a transparent and credible manner,' but 'until yesterday, the Indian side has not accepted our proposal.'
Sharif also stated that on Tuesday (6th), India launched airstrikes on six cities in Pakistan, and in response, Pakistan shot down five Indian aircraft, including three 'Rafale' jets.

The ally system is based on the fact that the big brother is very rich.

Bringing in allies is like raising younger brothers; it requires money. The Soviet Union was exhausted this way. The US has a debt of 36 trillion, and what it lacks is money. Trump's tariffs were a way to collect money from the whole world, whether allies or enemies, to address urgent needs. Now, with the need to finance younger brothers, where is the money coming from? Biden himself has profited significantly from the Russia-Ukraine war, harvesting Europe, but further harvesting could lead to big problems. Not harvesting means having no money—what to do?
The ally system is based on the fact that the big brother is very rich and must provide substantial benefits to the younger brothers. After World War II, the US was very wealthy and gathered a large group of allies, but now there is no money, and the situation has changed. If you want to hire thugs, not only must they pay for their own upkeep, but they also have to be robbed by the big brother. Who would be willing to be such a thug?

#美国

This is an era of technological explosion. Understanding agents and the agentic world is timely. Although knowledge is profound, it contains treasures of wealth.
#FHE构建可信安全基础

If Trump reduces tariffs to 50-65%, will China follow suit?

On April 23, The Wall Street Journal exclusively reported, citing informed sources, that Trump is considering a significant reduction of the 145% tariff on China, with a senior White House official stating that it could be lowered to around 50% to 65%. Trump is also considering a 'tiered taxation' scheme, imposing a 35% tariff on goods that the U.S. does not consider a national security threat, while goods related to so-called 'American strategic interests' would face at least a 100% tariff.

The U.S. proposed lowering to 50-65% as a condition to engage China in talks. China has three strategies:
1. To directly tell the U.S., 'You offer what you can, I will match it exactly; no further discussions.'
2. Not lowering to 20% means no talks; postal tariffs and port fees for Chinese-made ships must also be eliminated. China has already retaliated for the 'fentanyl tariff' and will not pursue that further.
3. Not lowering to the Biden era means no talks; after the 'fentanyl tariff' is canceled, China will also lift retaliatory measures that have been in place since January, including the rare earth export ban.

#特朗普

Argentine President Milei's Visit to China is Truly "Full of Twists and Turns"

The itinerary for Argentine President Milei's visit to China is still undecided. To put it simply, President Milei's plan for a visit to China has indeed been "full of twists and turns": Initially, at the end of last year, President Milei himself stated that he would visit China in January this year to participate in the China-CELAC Forum held in China. However, in reality, we did not have any plans to hold this forum in January; it is expected to occur in the spring.

Soon after, the news released by Argentine media and embassies changed to indicate that President Milei planned to visit China in April. But as April approached, the situation changed again, and Milei's visit was postponed to May....

Now it seems that May is also in doubt: Argentine newspaper "La Hornaja" revealed that the visit in May might be by the Foreign Minister instead of President Milei, and it is still uncertain whether the Foreign Minister can actually make the trip; another media outlet, "Mendoza Online," quoted informed sources saying, "The visit to China is definitely going to happen, but the timing is still uncertain, possibly at the end of the year"...
Milei's plan for visiting China keeps changing and being delayed. On one hand, this may be related to scheduling issues, and on the other hand, it may indeed be due to significant recent pressure from the United States. Recently, Blinken visited Argentina and criticized China, demanding Argentina stop its currency swap agreement with China.

This agreement is crucial for Argentina's economic stability, and Argentina certainly did not agree, but according to "La Hornaja," "in private conversations with reporters, the Argentine government acknowledged that the pressure from the United States is immense—although this is not the first time, as the U.S. has repeatedly blocked Chinese investments in military, logistics, and communications equipment in Argentina—this time the impact is particularly significant." The report suggested that the U.S. "hopes Milei will join its plan to isolate China in Latin America."
However, Argentina's problem lies in its strong dependence on both China and the United States: on one hand, Argentina's most important export product, soybeans, has a very high reliance on the Chinese market, and the currency swap agreement between the two countries is also crucial for Argentina's economic stability; on the other hand, Argentina also hopes to gain support from the United States to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, not to mention the U.S.'s geopolitical and military influence in Latin America.

$ETH Short-term Trend: Resistance Suppression and Bottom Signals Coexisting
1. Technical Pressure
The current price of ETH is around $1,559, failing to break through the 20-day moving average resistance level of $1,755, and the lower Bollinger Band support is at $1,436. If it breaks below, it may test $1,350137.
The RSI indicator (36.61) is close to the oversold area, indicating that a bottom may be forming in the short term, but it needs to stay above $1,500 to confirm a rebound signal16.
2. Divergence in Capital Flow
BlackRock's ETHA Trust recently recorded an inflow of $6.4 million, but the overall capital outflow from spot ETH ETFs was $38.79 million, especially with Fidelity withdrawing $36 million, showing institutional confidence in ETH is insufficient in the short term13.
Net liquidity data from exchanges shows that selling pressure has eased, with an increase in net outflow of ETH from exchanges, which may suggest that a market bottom is forming68.
3. Macroeconomic Disturbances
The escalation of U.S. tariff policies (such as Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs) and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts intertwine, triggering market risk-averse sentiment, and ETH as a risk asset may face further pressure47.

#特朗普施压鲍威尔
1. Recently, Trump has harshly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, accusing him of "playing politics" and wanting to fire him early, but he doesn't have that power. Powell's term runs until May 2026, and typically, a successor will be determined in the second half of 2025. It is said that Trump wants to replace Powell with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, but Warsh has stated that Powell should complete his term. Powell firmly responded to the question "If Trump asks you to resign, would you?" with "NO," and also mentioned the risks of a tariff war damaging the economy and inflation. It is very clear that the two do not get along.
2. One can indeed feel that Powell is noticeably more aligned with the Democrats, using independence as an excuse, and has not been kind to Trump. Before Biden's campaign, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice, strongly supporting the U.S. stock market. Now that the election is over, the U.S. stock market has dropped considerably, and there is also significant pressure on U.S. bonds, yet interest rates are not being cut; just recently they stated there will be no rate cuts in May. The internal struggle in the U.S. is quite complex, and many people want to see Trump make a fool of himself, which is true.
3. The current situation in the U.S. of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, while it cannot be said to have collapsed, does show signs of distress. In the first chart, after the significant drop in the U.S. stock market, the pattern looks very ugly, not resembling a "technical adjustment," but rather indicating a fundamental change, and further declines are entirely possible. The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 100, which has been a support level for many years, strongly suggesting it is weakening. Although Trump claims he wants a weaker dollar to enhance manufacturing competitiveness, the manufacturing sector has not yet recovered. If the dollar weakens rapidly, it is not a good thing. This indicates that capital is fleeing the dollar, exchanging it for euros and yen, moving away from U.S. capital markets, rather than investing in U.S. manufacturing or buying American goods. U.S. bonds are also attracting a lot of attention now. Since 2020, a major issue has been the continuously rising interest rates on U.S. bonds, which are not coming down. The interest on U.S. debt has surpassed a trillion, and Trump will need to issue new debt to pay the interest, which is a significant burden.