#特朗普施压鲍威尔

1. Recently, Trump has harshly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, accusing him of "playing politics" and wanting to fire him early, but he doesn't have that power. Powell's term runs until May 2026, and typically, a successor will be determined in the second half of 2025. It is said that Trump wants to replace Powell with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, but Warsh has stated that Powell should complete his term. Powell firmly responded to the question "If Trump asks you to resign, would you?" with "NO," and also mentioned the risks of a tariff war damaging the economy and inflation. It is very clear that the two do not get along.

2. One can indeed feel that Powell is noticeably more aligned with the Democrats, using independence as an excuse, and has not been kind to Trump. Before Biden's campaign, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice, strongly supporting the U.S. stock market. Now that the election is over, the U.S. stock market has dropped considerably, and there is also significant pressure on U.S. bonds, yet interest rates are not being cut; just recently they stated there will be no rate cuts in May. The internal struggle in the U.S. is quite complex, and many people want to see Trump make a fool of himself, which is true.

3. The current situation in the U.S. of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, while it cannot be said to have collapsed, does show signs of distress. In the first chart, after the significant drop in the U.S. stock market, the pattern looks very ugly, not resembling a "technical adjustment," but rather indicating a fundamental change, and further declines are entirely possible. The U.S. dollar index has fallen below 100, which has been a support level for many years, strongly suggesting it is weakening. Although Trump claims he wants a weaker dollar to enhance manufacturing competitiveness, the manufacturing sector has not yet recovered. If the dollar weakens rapidly, it is not a good thing. This indicates that capital is fleeing the dollar, exchanging it for euros and yen, moving away from U.S. capital markets, rather than investing in U.S. manufacturing or buying American goods. U.S. bonds are also attracting a lot of attention now. Since 2020, a major issue has been the continuously rising interest rates on U.S. bonds, which are not coming down. The interest on U.S. debt has surpassed a trillion, and Trump will need to issue new debt to pay the interest, which is a significant burden.