The total market value of altcoins is now almost touching historical highs. Looking back at the last bull market, it was actually a similar rhythm: once the total market value broke through a new high, the next step was two to three months of a sharp rise, followed by a peak, and BTC's market share plummeted.

But this time the background is completely different. Last time it was QE + low interest rates, with plenty of money and excessive liquidity, BTC oscillated sideways at high levels, and the market still had the energy to push altcoins. Now it is QT + neutral interest rates, BTC first fell sharply, and then had a shrinking rebound, so the space available for altcoins is naturally limited.

Therefore, while most people might be calling for an overall altcoin frenzy, I tend to lean towards the logic of a structural altcoin season. There will be a wave in altcoin markets, but the magnitude and duration will not be too exaggerated.