crypto肖晓

This round of economic changes has come more suddenly than ever before.

Some attribute it to cyclical issues, while others believe it is a result of structural transformation.

But the real impact is often not reflected in news reports; it is found in the daily lives of individuals.

Wages stagnate, consumption gradually shrinks, opportunities become fewer, and anxiety continues to escalate.

If you cannot understand the direction of the economy, many decisions will deviate from the correct path.

However, if you can understand the economy, even with just a superficial understanding, you can avoid many detours.

The economy is never just a topic limited to the financial circle; it deeply permeates every consumption, every expenditure, and every decision.

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Whenever I hesitated to take profits due to greed, I would first ask myself three questions:

Which projects can this coin be compared to? How are their trends? Is there still room for this coin's market cap to rise?

What is the current market sentiment? Is the liquidity good?

If the price starts to decline, how much could the profits retract? Can I accept such a significant retraction?

The term "diamond hands" often merely masks human greed.

To achieve stable profits, one must rely on accurate market cap estimates, close attention to market liquidity and sentiment changes, and strict adherence to trading discipline.

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No one can accurately predict the market trends; true trading lies in making a solid judgment based on one's own fundamental analysis and formulating a trading plan that has high execution capability and strong fault tolerance.

In a trading plan, the proportion of subjective judgment should be minimized, while the practicality of plan execution (such as position management, take profit and stop loss, etc.) should be given more weight.

The size of the position should match the trading level: when engaging in higher-level trading, the position can be increased appropriately; when trading at a lower level, the position should be more cautious.

For beginners or those who have not yet achieved substantial returns in the market, it is advisable to choose higher-level trades, as they are more certain, while lower-level trades come with higher uncertainty.

Trading is a process of continuous refinement, and one should frequently review and backtest each operation. Try to avoid making the same mistakes repeatedly and practice more. When you can identify and avoid mistakes you have made before, it indicates that you have overcome human weaknesses through practice and are continuously improving.

Short-term speculation and minor skirmishes are ultimately fleeting; only solid trading is a lasting and robust path.

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No one can accurately predict market trends; true trading lies in making executable and fault-tolerant trading plans based on one's rough judgment.

In the trading plan, try to minimize the impact of subjective judgment and increase the weight of the plan's execution (such as position management, take profit and stop loss, etc.).

Position size should match the trading level: when trading at a larger level, the position can be appropriately larger; when trading at a smaller level, the position should remain cautious.

For beginners or those who have not yet made significant money in the market, it is recommended to trade at a larger level, as larger trades have higher certainty, while smaller trades have lower certainty.

Trading is an ongoing process of refinement, repeatedly reviewing and backtesting each operation. Try to avoid repeating mistakes and improve the precision of operations; when you can identify and avoid past mistakes, you have overcome human weaknesses through practice, which also means progress.

Short-term speculation and quick profits are ultimately fleeting; only steady trading is the path to longevity.

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The memories of the dead suddenly attack. Professional rewriting to prevent plagiarism ChatGPT says:
The chain game was filled with legends of getting rich during the last bull market, which was impressive. However, that bull market has completely ended, and the market's enthusiasm has waned. 😂

Seeing everyone talk about 'MapleStory', those once vivid memories flooded back to my mind.

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At 8:30 PM tonight, the United States will release retail sales data and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Additionally, Powell will deliver the opening remarks for the second Federal Reserve Thomas Laubach research conference.

If you feel confused due to market fluctuations, or are uncertain how to deal with being trapped in a position, or even feel misled during operations, feel free to communicate and discuss at any time!

Key focus for the day: $NXPC, $CVC, $AMP

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No chasing the rise, nor rushing to short; I've been waiting for the breakout of the major trend. Yesterday, with just one move from Hippo, it directly triggered a pullback in the meme.

Meme things rise quickly and fall quickly as well. The first wave of the general rise has ended, and now we are entering the second wave. It's time to choose the targets and start testing the techniques.

Some might still have a second wave opportunity, while others have already retraced to the starting point, and some might have even drawn a door 'A'.

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Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained consolidation, showing a healthy trend. After a steady stabilization, it is expected to continue moving upwards. Recent attention still needs to be paid to fundamental information, and it is anticipated to continue consolidating in the short term to build momentum for future increases. From a larger cycle perspective, a weekly golden cross has preliminarily formed, and a new round of market activity is expected to start.

Ethereum is consolidating in sync with Bitcoin, with slight adjustments, which is in line with expectations. It is expected to maintain consolidation during the day, and if it stabilizes, it may continue to rise. Altcoins are also consolidating in line with mainstream coins, and market sentiment remains relatively sluggish. However, if mainstream coins stabilize, it may be suitable to consider moderate follow-up.

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Does the subsequent market have sustainability?

Although the current increase is remarkable, from a long-term perspective, the rebound of the Bitcoin ecosystem appears more as an expected correction rather than a confirmation of a trend reversal. The ecosystem still faces a series of structural issues that may constrain its continued performance.

First, from the overall development progress, whether it is BRC-20 or Runes, the advancement of related projects remains relatively slow. The originally highly anticipated 'Bitcoin-native DeFi' has yet to establish a complete vertical system, lacking the necessary infrastructure support, making it difficult for the ecosystem to form genuine synergies internally. Additionally, the enthusiasm of developers is gradually waning. The update frequency of multiple core projects on GitHub has significantly decreased, and the overall activity level of the technical community is noticeably lower than that of Ethereum, Solana, and other chains. The shift in capital and user focus, along with the cooling of the developer ecosystem, further weakens mid-term market expectations.

In summary, this round of rebound resembles a 'correction of misjudgment' under extremely low valuations and weak expectations. After a year of emotional exhaustion and valuation decline, funds have once again turned their attention to these deeply fallen assets at a moment of style switching, releasing short-term rebound elasticity.

However, for the Bitcoin ecosystem to truly emerge with an independent market, merely relying on price increases is not enough. The recovery of the ecosystem requires more solid product delivery, more convincing user growth data, and a renewed community cohesion towards the future. If the rebound is ignited by emotions, then the sustainability of the trend must be built on confidence and substantive progress.

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The cryptocurrency market has seen severe volatility, with the popular meme coin Moodeng experiencing a flash crash of over 20% in a single day, causing ripples throughout the market. Earlier leading coins such as Neiro and Pnut have also significantly retraced, displaying typical characteristics of a bull market shakeout.

Although this sharp decline has intensified market panic, historical cycles and capital flows suggest that this fluctuation may be a phase adjustment within an upward trend.

Experienced traders point out that the current market trend aligns with the pattern of mainstream assets undergoing deep corrections to wash out floating capital during rising cycles. Despite the short-term price volatility, the fundamentals and capital enthusiasm have not fundamentally changed, indicating that the main upward wave of the market is not over yet.

For long-term investors, maintaining strategic determination is particularly crucial; adhering to positions amid market fluctuations is essential to seize the potential for greater gains in the future.
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In this round of market trends, leading projects in multiple fields have emerged. In the AI field, Virtual AIXBT stands out.

It is an AI proxy token issued on the Virtuals Protocol platform on the Base network, akin to an on-chain detective, capable of aggregating data from over 400 KOLs, functioning like a cryptocurrency hotspot aggregator, offering unique advantages in market analysis. By tagging @aixbt on Twitter and entering a token, users can quickly access various information about that token. Its market capitalization has grown rapidly, surpassing GOAT on December 30, 2024, breaking through $480 million, with a 7-day increase of over 68.8%.

In the MEME field, projects like Moodeng, Neiro, and Pnut have shown impressive performance. Taking Pnut as an example, this meme coin is issued on the Solana chain, and its image is inspired by a squirrel named “Peanut” adopted by engineer Mark seven years ago. The interactive videos shared by Mark on Instagram have garnered Peanut hundreds of thousands of fans.

Pnut not only has a strong narrative but also boasts significant advantages in listings. It carries a political series of traffic that is subtle enough, combining the influencer attributes of an ordinary zoo meme coin with the political concepts endorsed by Musk and Trump, positioning itself at the intersection of traffic and political narrative, demonstrating powerful explosive potential in the market.

In the ETH ecosystem, ETHFI plays an important role.

ETHFI is the native governance token of the EtherFi protocol, used for decentralized liquid staking of Ethereum. Users can stake ETH to obtain liquidity tokens eETH, enhancing capital liquidity. Its operational mechanism is efficient; after users stake ETH to get eETH, eETH can circulate freely in the DeFi ecosystem and achieve automated re-staking of staking rewards through EigenLayer.

ETHFI holders can participate in key decision-making votes for the protocol, with some tokens allocated to the treasury to support development and maintenance, and holders can also receive a portion of the fees generated by the protocol.

In the GameFi sector, there hasn’t been a clear leading project yet. However, Xia Ge has predicted a highly promising dark horse project, which is a new token with a three-letter name.

Everyone might as well brainstorm and guess what this mysterious token that could lead a new round of trends in the GameFi sector might be.

Renowned analyst in the cryptocurrency field EGRAG CRYPTO shared insights on platform X, clearly stating that $109,000 is a crucial watershed for Bitcoin's price trend.

His analysis suggests that if BTC can achieve a daily closing price above this level, it will serve as an important signal confirming the initiation of a new upward cycle, indicating that bullish forces dominate the market dynamics, creating favorable conditions for breaking historical highs.

Additionally, the current leverage ratio in the derivatives market is within a reasonable range, further supporting a sustainable upward trend.

From a risk perspective, if Bitcoin cannot maintain above this key level, market sentiment may undergo a structural shift.

The analyst recommends that investors pay close attention to changes in Bitcoin's market dominance: if BTC's dominance significantly declines amidst a collective strength in altcoins, it could likely signal a shift in market style, indicating the formation of a temporary peak, and may trigger a deep correction across the entire market.

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The cryptocurrency market is entering an active cycle for altcoins, with Ethereum successfully breaking through the key level of $2700 early in the morning.

Despite the short-term correction risk on the technical side, once it stabilizes effectively, it is expected to usher in a new upward trend.

As an important indicator of market sentiment, Ethereum's strong performance may become a catalyst for the collective rebound of altcoins.

Based on the current market landscape, we recommend paying attention to two types of emerging projects with potential:
STO Protocol: As a decentralized liquidity solution, this project currently has a market value of $29 million and has completed $22 million in financing.

From a technical perspective, a stabilization signal has formed at the daily level, and combined with its yet-to-be-fully-released value potential, it is suitable as a mid to long-term stealth target.

KERNEL Ecosystem: The project is simultaneously laid out in both the Ethereum and BNB Chain ecosystems, supporting cross-chain staking functions. Currently, it has a market value of $31 million, with a financing scale of $10 million. Recently, it broke through a key resistance level on the daily chart, and early allocation may capture the value discovery window.

In the crucial phase of the altcoin market's launch, through precise layouts of high-potential projects, there is hope for effective asset appreciation.

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Affected by the latest CPI data with a mild positive impact, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a consolidation pattern in the range of 101,000-105,000.

Currently, the 101,000 USD level forms a short-term effective support, with a key support level further probing downward to around 99,700 USD. Overall market sentiment remains optimistic, but there is a lack of substantial positive factors to drive BTC to break upwards.

Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) is showing a fluctuating upward trend, successfully breaking through the resistance level of 182 USD in the early morning today, currently fluctuating in the range of 180-185 USD, with the 188-190 USD area constituting an important resistance level.

From on-chain data, SOL's turnover rate on Tuesday remained basically flat compared to the previous day, maintaining in the range of 123-160, showing obvious signs of short-term chips exiting, while changes in medium to long-term holding chips are relatively small.

As the price rises, short-term profit-taking continues to realize gains, with chips concentrated in the range of 174-182 USD, where the 174 USD position has accumulated over 33 million tokens.

However, since the chips in this range are mostly from short-term entries, the effectiveness of this support still needs to be verified by the market.

From a correlation perspective, SOL's price trend is highly correlated with the overall market, but during market fluctuations, if there are narrative-driven speculations such as ecological benefits, the possibility of it breaking into an independent market cannot be ruled out.

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Moodeng's technical form is emerging, and short-term breakout opportunities are worth paying attention to. From a technical analysis perspective, Moodeng has formed a flag consolidation pattern on the one-hour K-line chart.

This classic technical pattern often signals a continuation of the trend, but it remains to be seen whether it will form a 'bull flag' to facilitate an upward movement or become a continuation pattern in a downward trend. Further observation of the subsequent price breakout direction is necessary.

For short-term traders, the hourly movement of Moodeng is worth focusing on. If the price effectively breaks above the upper resistance level of the flag, it will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend, and at that time, one may consider following the trend; conversely, if it breaks downward, caution should be taken regarding the risk of trend reversal.

Investors are advised to closely monitor market changes, combine indicators such as trading volume for comprehensive judgment, and seize potential short-term trading opportunities.

#CPI数据来袭 #加密圆桌会议要点 #Strategy增持比特币

Survival Guide for the Rotating Crypto Market: Balancing Patience and Strategy in the Face of Market Volatility. Investors who have not yet entered the market or are holding positions that are stagnating need not feel anxious.

The current market displays typical sector rotation characteristics, and new opportunities for recovery are still worth looking forward to.

From the perspective of market operation logic, Bitcoin, as the industry benchmark, has not broken through its historical high. Most altcoin market makers remain cautious, with only a few popular coins leading the rise, while the fundamentals of most projects have yet to kick in.

Investors should be wary of the vicious cycle of "buying high and selling low": blindly chasing assets with excessively high short-term gains can easily trap one in the psychological pitfalls of "rising after selling and falling after chasing high," leading to a disrupted trading rhythm.

It is recommended to only adjust positions when new assets have a significant risk-reward advantage.

At this critical stage, scientific position management is the core to winning.

By diversifying allocations and setting reasonable stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, one can resist market volatility risks while seizing rotation opportunities.

Maintaining rationality and patience is essential to achieving steady profit growth during the bull market cycle.

#加密圆桌会议要点 #Strategy增持比特币 #贸易战缓和

Survival Guide During the Rotation Period of the Crypto Market: Balance Patience and Strategy to Face Market Volatility, Investors Who Have Not Yet Entered or Are Experiencing Stagnation in Their Holdings Need Not Worry.

The current market exhibits typical characteristics of sector rotation, and new opportunities for upward adjustment are still worth looking forward to.

From the perspective of market operation logic, Bitcoin serves as the industry barometer; until its price breaks through the historical high, most altcoin market makers will remain cautious, with only a few hot cryptocurrencies leading the way, while the fundamentals of most projects have yet to take off.

Investors need to be wary of the vicious cycle of "chasing highs and selling lows": blindly chasing targets with excessive short-term gains can easily trap one in the psychological trap of "rising after selling and falling after chasing high," leading to chaotic trading rhythm.

It is advisable to only adjust positions when new targets exhibit a significant risk-reward ratio advantage.

At this critical stage, scientific position management is the key to victory.

By diversifying allocations and setting reasonable stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, one can resist market volatility risks while seizing rotation opportunities.

Maintain rationality and patience to achieve stable growth in returns during the bull market cycle.

#加密圆桌会议要点 #Strategy增持比特币 #贸易战缓和

2024 Crypto Investment Strategy Shift: The Primary Market Becomes the Core Battleground

In the current market environment, investors with limited capital need to reassess their investment strategies for mainstream coins in the secondary market.

Reviewing historical trends, the initial phase of the bull market from October 2023 to February 2024 has already completed a broad-based rally, and the golden window for collective appreciation of crypto assets has passed.

Even if the second half of the year brings the end of the bull market, market differentiation will be more pronounced — if Bitcoin starts a major rally, the performance of different sectors and coins will show significant discrepancies. Choosing the wrong targets may lead to "structural losses in an index bull market," while strong coins achieve 5-10 times growth, weak tokens may fall into the predicament of declining without rising, causing investors to still be trapped after the bull market ends, forced to endure 2-3 years of holding pressure or stop-loss exits.

In contrast, the core opportunities in the crypto market in 2024 have shifted to the on-chain primary market. This area, while accompanied by higher risks, offers more substantial potential returns.

Investors need to capture trends with keen market insights and decisively position themselves at critical moments.

However, risk control remains a prerequisite — accurately grasping the timing of entry and reasonably allocating positions will become key factors for success in the primary market game.

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Cryptocurrency Market Hotspot Rotation: Missing the Surge of $dupe and superfriend When the market's focus shifted to $believe, sparking widespread discussion, the explosive rise of $dupe and superfriend quietly unfolded.

Previously, due to the continuous decline in the prices of $dupe and superfriend, and weak K-line patterns, I removed them from the observation list. During this time, the market paid little attention until the sudden surge in their market capitalizations—platform tokens skyrocketed from $2.4 million to $100 million, $dupe's market cap jumped from $2.4 million to $40 million, and superfriend soared from less than $1 million to $30 million.

In the face of this unexpected surge, although there is a sense of regret for missing out, market data shows that most investors remain in a wait-and-see state. The rapid shift in hotspots once again confirms the characteristics of the cryptocurrency market: when a certain coin becomes the focus of public attention, its rapid rise phase is often nearing its end, and very few participants can accurately grasp the market conditions.

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Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: Intensifying Sector Rotation and Hotspot Tracking

I. Overall Market Trend The price pullback of Bitcoin (BTC) has led to a broad decline in altcoins, and the market has entered a stage of weak sector recovery. On the macro level, the US-China trade negotiations have made some progress, combined with a rise in US stocks and pressure on gold prices, leading to a significant cooling of investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Goldman Sachs' latest analysis indicates that the timing for the first interest rate cut in 2024 may be delayed from July to December, further affecting market capital flow.

II. Hotspot Sector Analysis Risks of Recovery in Edge Ecosystems: The Telegram Open Network (TON), Binance Smart Chain (BSC), and Polkadot ecosystems have shown a lagging recovery trend, and caution is needed regarding the risk of a pullback at the end of sector rotation. Rise of platform tokens and application-based projects: AI concept launch platform Launchcoin (incubated by Alliance DAO) and e-commerce attribute token Dupe lead the way, while meme projects on the Solana chain accelerate their transformation towards practicality, highlighting a trend of value realization.

Meme Hotspot Tracking: The Ikun Meme coin themed around Cai Xukun within the Bonk ecosystem has attracted attention from large holder Bonkguy, leading to intensified short-term volatility.

Airdrop Expectations Driving: The BN Alpha platform will launch a point consumption mechanism on May 13 and plans to airdrop tokens such as RDAC and NXPC, prompting early market positioning.