哈吉米

From the perspective of historical statistical probability, the probability of this month being bearish should be slightly lower than the probability of next month being bearish. However, even if this month ends up being bullish, the start of this month is at 109, so it can be considered that as long as it breaks above 110,000, it can be bullish. Currently, there are only about 4,000 points left, and there are still 20 days ahead; a gradual rise is possible. I mentioned before that I see this March line as a bearish signal, but remember this is the March line, and it does not mean every month is bearish. This March line spans from October to the end of December. If October ends with a small bearish candle, then if November ends with a small bullish candle and December with a bearish candle, overall the price remains unchanged, but your position would be lost. Therefore, if you are trading, 108 is a resistance level and short-term speculation can be considered. This point is not a problem, and it is quite a clear dividing line. However, just take a small gain of about 2,000 points; the next 20 days are destined for back-and-forth fluctuations, and then in the last few days, there will likely be a rise. This is highly probable because the market trend this month has already appeared at the beginning of the month. Those familiar with trading know that once there is a fluctuation of a few thousand points, the subsequent ten days largely depend on stability or slow movement. From a time perspective, it is also approximately $BTC .

Strongly recommend to short the entire position at 108, don't ask why, because this point is really critical, at least from the perspective of the monthly level, looking at $BTC 108 and 114

Frozen (fraud money), I called, and the reason given to the police was the income flow of the Delta operation, it didn't work, I called, when your WeChat receives this notification, if it can be unblocked, it will be unblocked after 48 hours. If it is not unblocked after half an hour now, then this money may be returned to the victims.
Don’t think that small amounts can’t receive black money, this is just 1000, just 1000! It's made me silent.
Lastly, I want to say again, don’t leave WeChat, don’t leave WeChat, don’t leave WeChat, WeChat cannot verify real names, must ensure transactions, do not hang WeChat payment codes, otherwise people will directly send money to your WeChat (which cannot verify real names), and by then, even if you return it, this money will still be circulating in your account $BTC .

Of course, if you let me give you a single point, I suggest shorting 1/3 at 103, then shorting 1/3 at 107, and finally keeping at 110000. This is a suggestion for a full position, as it's only one times, so you can't report 200000. When the bear comes, you can still break even 🤪

Brothers, I have a feeling that the bear is coming. This month, 98000 is about the bottom. At most, it might linger until 94000. After that, it's likely to mainly oscillate downwards until the news is released in December. Actually, whether interest rates will be cut in December is no longer important; the market may care more about whether next year will be a rate hike year or a rate cut year, and how many times? Having expectations is always good.
Please rest assured, this month is a bearish line; short on the highs, no problem. As for next month, if it’s bearish, we might see a large drop starting with eight, which would also signify a formal turn to bear. If next month closes strong, whether it’s bearish or bullish, we still need to look at next month’s news regarding the outlook for next year. As I said,
Nothing will keep rising forever, and nothing will keep falling forever, just like interest rate cuts; it’s impossible to keep cutting indefinitely. Once it reaches a certain level, increases will be necessary. So what do you think?
Anyway, I feel that after a year, I should be able to break even! I will definitely win!!!!!!! $BTC

Because from the historical patterns of the US stock market, I can see that the US stock market will still show a bullish trend next month, at least it needs to complete seven consecutive bullish days before considering the possibility of a pullback. Given the high correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market, I believe that next month will still be bullish. As for the current situation, since it is close to the end of the month, it is also quite normal for the US stock market to experience a decline as it wraps up 🤪

Let's take a small guess at the subsequent market trends, probably within a time frame of three months for market fluctuations. It feels like there shouldn't be major issues, and trading can be based on this timeline and pattern.
Firstly, from 9.24 to 9.28, this week should serve as a mid-way transfer station, with a slight consolidation. The trend is still downward, so it’s best to short between 113 and 114 this week. However, one thing is certain: (September will not drop below 107000).
Then from October to mid-October, there will be an accelerated downward trend, until the weekly lower bound of 103 is touched. After that, from mid-October to the end of October, or in early November, there will be a rebound. I can see that October will show a bullish trend, so it won't go below 107. One can even imagine reaching 120000. Time-wise, there is still some room for that. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline until it hits a level lower than the weekly correction, which might be a bi-weekly correction or a monthly correction. Who knows, right? After all, two months is still quite sufficient. $BTC

Let me see if that batch of people from 24 years ago is still around? Family? $BTC

It's been a long time since I posted, let's evaluate the current situation. The current situation is that altcoin leaders are starting to take off one after another, which can be seen from Solana and BNB, reflecting the characteristics of the end of a bull market. The market share of Bitcoin has already dropped to 56 (normally it should be above 60), a decrease of 5% in funds; this portion of funds has mostly flowed to altcoins, which has led to a frenzy among altcoins. However, funds are ultimately limited, and the big players still hold the top coins, so most small altcoins have not changed at all. Meanwhile, the market share of USD funds is continuously increasing, highlighting that some funds have chosen to cash out.
This is purely from a technical perspective.
From a news perspective, the recent news regarding institutions holding Bitcoin has also begun to decrease gradually. Most news is about preparing to buy or planning to buy, but there are no current purchases.
Looking at the market, the monthly candlestick chart has reached 45000. Four months ago, I mentioned that after reaching 40,000, I would sell all my holdings and start shorting.
My current thought remains the same, but the specific steps might need to change. Currently, I plan to sell all my holdings around 920, and then start shorting comprehensively around 925. This short position will last for 6 months, with a target of 65,000.
Although historically bear markets have seen a 70% drop, that was based on the early instability of Bitcoin. Now, with major institutions and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, a 50% drop is the limit: $BTC

This article does not discuss the market, but talks about the psychological transition of cryptocurrency enthusiasts coming into the crypto world. I have noticed that many cryptocurrency enthusiasts, after spending more time in the crypto world, have lost the passion they once had. I still remember when I first entered the crypto space; even a small loss would lead to various reviews, analyses of market trends, historical data, long-term cycles, psychological transitions, and convincing myself not to engage in short-term trading but to focus on long-term trends. However, I find that as time goes on, cryptocurrency enthusiasts tend to rely more on the market analysis of certain bloggers or KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders). In other words, suppose some KOLs say that Bitcoin's weekly corrections generally occur every five to six months; considering the last weekly correction was only four months ago, at this point, cryptocurrency enthusiasts might think it's still early and that a weekly correction won't happen. They may believe this correction is just a simple three-day line adjustment or a daily line adjustment, without checking whether what these KOLs say is true. But have you really checked? Have you truly verified? History has reference, and the future has randomness, but compared to that unpredictable randomness, that historical reference may hold more value. Furthermore, Bitcoin's weekly corrections have a recorded history of four months, and now it just happens to be four months. Oh, no, perhaps that shouldn't be called a weekly correction; it should be referred to as a monthly correction. $BTC Finally, I hope all cryptocurrency enthusiasts can have their own thoughts, return to the mindset they had when they first entered the crypto space, and go back to their own reflections.

No, no, it's too wrong, just based on the current situation, why do I feel that all the historical data is telling me to turn bearish, and there might not be one last big trend in the market $BTC

Playing with spot can be fine, but only play with what you have faith in. What does it mean to have faith? Look at the exchange rate of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, which has been declining for three years. Suppose it were you; if you could hold onto Ethereum for three years, then that is faith. Without faith, just play honestly with Bitcoin. Apart from Bitcoin, all other coins are knockoffs.

In the face of this market trend, the main players like to exploit time differences, so the best approach is to hold on, not to be elated by gains or disheartened by losses. Currently, the spot price is fully held at 118, and the contract is set at 116. However, since it is already at a high position, the contract can only go up to twice the value. In the last two months of the market, if you can eat, eat; if you can't, then forget it. After all, let's take a step back and say, even if it goes up another 30,000 points, that's only a 30% profit for the spot price, while for the contract, three times this position is a bit too high. $BTC

Recently, the main players have been fond of timing the market, but if you think seriously about it, the short-term trend doesn't really matter. In the past year, Bitcoin has at least given you two opportunities to double your investment.
The first time from 58,000 to 100,000
The second time from 74,000 to 120,000
There's no need for family members to worry; currently, altcoins are rising, and if you're itching to play with altcoins, it's not that Bitcoin isn't pulling up, it's just that the capital isn't there, the timing isn't right, and the sentiment isn't there. Be patient.
After all, to earn 1 million from 50,000, you only need to multiply it by five.
In the past year alone, just in spot trading, there were opportunities to double your investment, not to mention what if you could profit from both sides? $BTC
Here's a way to curb your impulse: every time you feel the urge to play with altcoins or want to open a short-term position, just play a shooting game, shoot a few dozen rounds for yourself, get dizzy, and naturally you'll control it. The only way to restrain your gambling addiction is to confront it with an even stronger desire. $BTC

Remember, no matter what, as long as you are alive, anything is possible, no matter how outrageous it seems! In the long river of time, anything is possible.

Suffering and hardship cannot take away the ambition to soar high; as long as I don't die, there will inevitably be a day when I can rise above. What difference does it make to have half a year? Dog dealer, you can't do it either. Even with half a year, you still haven't been able to defeat me. You can't do it! $BNB
Come on, let's continue. I have time to play with you. As long as you don't defeat me, you can forget about ever winning against me in this lifetime.

Remember that every pullback in a bull market is an opportunity. Remember, every 4-hour pullback or 6-hour pullback is an opportunity, and such opportunities are rare! Be sure to seize them $BTC

Don't be overly anxious, because I am here for everything! $BTC

As soon as I think of certain air forces in the square, I can't help but look forward to the prophecy at 4:18 tomorrow morning. When did this all start? Those of us who are shorting the market, are we really relying on some ethereal prophecies to strengthen our beliefs? Are we starting to abandon technical analysis and news, and instead betting on metaphysics? If the bears cannot solidify their beliefs like the bulls, then a person without faith is destined to be like a brainless zombie, unable to see hope!
Have a little confidence in yourself, okay? Have a little confidence in your judgment, okay?
After all, the first step in trading is to strengthen oneself! Isn't believing in oneself also a form of faith? $BTC