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Recently, Bitcoin ($BTC ) has encountered significant resistance in the range of $103,000 to $104,000, which is viewed as a long-term supply zone, and some investors have chosen to take profits here. On a technical level, if the price can hold above the $100,000 support level (near the 20-day moving average), it may continue to target the range of $107,000 to $110,000; conversely, if it falls below $100,000, it may pull back to the support levels of $95,000 or $86,000.

#美国加征关税 Trump's policy mix may strengthen US stocks and the dollar in the short term, but will increase global volatility in the long term. The movements of cryptocurrencies will depend on the interplay of the following factors:
- **Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand**: If inflation persists and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin may benefit; conversely, market risk aversion will suppress risk assets.
- **Policy Implementation Pace**: The speed of tax reform progress and the scope of tariff implementation are key variables. If tax cuts occur faster than expected (e.g., implemented mid-2025), it may alleviate concerns about an economic recession and support risk assets.
- **Geopolitics and Supply Chain Adjustments**: Whether companies can mitigate the impact of tariffs by shifting supply chains will determine if inflationary pressures are controllable.

**Investor Response Strategy**: Diversify allocations to balance risk, focus on inflation-resistant assets (gold, Bitcoin) and sectors benefiting from de-globalization (domestic manufacturing, DeFi), while closely monitoring Federal Reserve policy and trade war developments.

Today, Bitcoin is fluctuating around **$102,162** (a slight drop of about 1.97% compared to yesterday), with an intraday fluctuation range of **$100,688-$105,720**, showing a short-term high-level correction trend. After China and the U.S. suspended some tariffs, traditional stock markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) surged significantly, causing funds to flow back from cryptocurrencies to the stock market, resulting in a phenomenon of 'divergence between stocks and cryptocurrencies.' The short-term diversion of funds led Bitcoin to fall from a high of **$105,720** to **$100,700**, but the agreement may weaken the dollar's settlement position in the long term, benefiting Bitcoin's positioning as a 'cross-border value transfer protocol.' Today's Bitcoin trend shows characteristics of 'high-level fluctuation + correction,' affected by short-term fund diversion and technical pressure, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. Investors need to pay close attention to **CPI data results**, **the effectiveness of the $100,000 support**, and **institutional fund movements**, and flexibly adjust their positions to balance risks and returns.

Chairman Paul Atkins of SEC compares the migration of securities from traditional 'off-chain' to blockchain 'on-chain' to the transformation of the music industry from vinyl records to digital audio, believing that tokenization will reshape the ways securities are issued, traded, and held, enhancing liquidity, transparency, and the potential for innovation. For example, smart contracts can automatically execute dividend distributions, and low liquidity assets (such as real estate) can attract more investors through token fragmentation. Blockchain technology could give rise to new market behaviors not covered by traditional rules, such as the combined trading of securities with other assets ('pair trading'), or supporting 'super apps' that integrate securities, non-securities, and financial services into a one-stop platform.

If the CPI is higher than expected, the central bank may accelerate interest rate hikes (similar to the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes in 2022); if the data is weak, it may shift to easing (as Japan has maintained negative interest rates for a long time). For example, in June 2023, the core CPI in the United States fell to 4.8%, and the market immediately adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Sustained high inflation (like the Eurozone's CPI exceeding 10% in 2022) reflects an imbalance between supply and demand, while deflation (like China's CPI approaching zero in the second quarter of 2023) suggests insufficient demand.

The price of Bitcoin fluctuates around $102,000, with a daily low of $100,688, followed by a rebound to the $102,700 range, but overall shows a downward trend. The latest quote is $101,903, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.17%. In the previous week, Bitcoin had broken through $105,000 but failed to hold, indicating selling pressure in the market. Current attention needs to be on the $100,800-$101,500 range; if it falls below this, it may trigger more liquidations of leveraged long positions, further probing the psychological level of $100,000. Today's Bitcoin movement is mainly characterized by oscillation and adjustment, primarily influenced by CPI data, technical pressure, and market sentiment. Although there are short-term risks of a pullback, the long-term bull market logic (such as policy shifts and institutional processes) remains fundamentally intact. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics after data releases, adjust strategies flexibly, and balance risk and return.

#贸易战缓和 In the first quarter of 2025, China's exports to the United States fell by 3.2%, while categories such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics grew against the trend by 45%. Through the RCEP mechanism, $34 billion worth of orders have been shifted to Southeast Asia, reducing dependence on a single market. The internationalization of the renminbi (with oil settlements covering over 10 countries) and the cross-border pilot of the digital renminbi weaken the dominance of the US dollar and enhance bargaining power. This trade easing is a phased compromise between China and the US under multiple pressures, injecting certainty into the global economy, though deep-seated contradictions (technology competition, supply chain restructuring) remain unresolved. The upcoming 90-day buffer period is both a negotiation window and a critical period for strategic games, and investors need to closely monitor policy trends to balance risks and opportunities.

On May 7, 2023, Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade, introducing key improvements such as a higher staking cap and account abstraction (EIP-7702 standard), enhancing network efficiency and user experience. This upgrade is viewed by the market as a long-term positive, driving the ETH price to surge by 20% within 24 hours, becoming the core technical driver of the recent rally. Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH, referred to as 'whales', have continued to accumulate since late April, reaching the highest level of holdings since March 2025. Data from Glassnode shows that the net position of such addresses has turned positive, indicating increased confidence from large funds in the market outlook. Since May 8, the Ethereum futures market has seen large-scale short covering, with a liquidation amount reaching $437.94 million, far exceeding the long liquidation amount ($211.29 million). The rapid price increase has forced shorts to cover, creating a 'short squeeze' that further pushed the ETH price to the $2,600 mark. A bullish crossover has appeared on the daily chart, while the 4-hour chart shows continued strengthening momentum. After breaking through the $2,550 level (61.8% retracement), the target is set towards $2,700, and even above $3,000. The ongoing upgrades to the Ethereum network in 2025, coupled with an increase in staking rates leading to supply tightening, and the potential approval of a spot ETF (currently expected in the market with a probability of 77%) could drive prices to new highs.

#ETH突破2500 Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra upgrade on May 7, introducing key improvements such as a higher staking cap and account abstraction (EIP-7702 standard), enhancing network efficiency and user experience. This upgrade is seen by the market as a long-term positive, driving the ETH price to surge by 20% within 24 hours, becoming the core technical driver of the recent upward trend. Addresses holding over 10,000 ETH, referred to as 'whales,' have been continuously increasing their holdings since late April, reaching the highest level since March 2025. Data from Glassnode shows that the net position of such addresses has turned positive, indicating increased confidence from large funds in the future market. Since May 8, a large-scale short covering has occurred in the Ethereum futures market, with a liquidation amount of $437.94 million, far exceeding the long liquidation amount ($211.29 million). The rapid price increase forced shorts to cover, creating a 'short squeeze' that further pushed the ETH price to the $2,600 mark. A bullish crossover appeared on the daily chart, and the 4-hour chart shows continued strengthening momentum. After breaking through $2,550 (61.8% retracement level), the target is set for $2,700, or even above $3,000. The ongoing upgrades to the Ethereum network in 2025, the increase in staking rates leading to supply tightening, and the potential approval of a spot ETF (current market expectation probability 77%) may drive the price to new highs.

$XRP XRP fell over 5% in the first week of May 2025, dropping to a two-week low of $2.07 on May 10, with trading volume concurrently shrinking by 42% to $12.6 billion.
The technical indicators show that XRP's RSI (Relative Strength Index) is 46.56, below the neutral level of 50, indicating a bearish trend; the Bollinger Bands indicate that the current price ($2.13) is close to the lower band ($2.05), and a break below could lead to further declines.
Ripple obtained a license from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) on May 1, which pushed XRP up by 8.3% on the same day, with trading volume surging by 47%, but subsequent overall market corrections narrowed the gains. The number of active addresses on the XRP ledger dropped to 21,000 (down 80% from the December peak), and the decrease in network activity is directly linked to reduced demand.
The market's risk-averse sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting led to capital flowing out of high-risk assets, putting pressure on XRP along with other altcoins. The new tariff policies from the Trump administration intensified market volatility, causing the total cryptocurrency market cap to shrink by 8% in a single day, with XRP being dragged down by macro risks in the short term.
If it breaks the critical support level of $2, it could trigger panic selling, and the price might drop to $1. If it breaks above $2.29 (Bollinger Bands upper band) or the resistance level of $3, it could initiate a mid-term upward trend. If market sentiment improves and technical indicators confirm the start of the 5th wave, positions can be built in batches; however, one must be cautious of changes in macro policies and regulatory uncertainties.$XRP

Since November 2024, Ethereum's price has experienced a significant rise for the first time, with a daily increase of 12% on May 9, breaking through $2,688 and driving the ETH/BTC trading pair up by 2.1%. Its dominance rebounded from the monthly support level of 14.8% to 15.2%, and technical indicators (such as RSI recovery and MACD bullish crossover) show strong upward momentum. The Pectra upgrade of Ethereum has improved network efficiency, combined with institutional capital inflow (with a daily net inflow of $45 million into Ethereum-related funds), further solidifying its position as a bellwether for altcoin trends. The implementation of the US-UK trade agreement and Trump's optimistic remarks on Sino-US negotiations have eased market tensions, leading to a single-day surge of $221 billion in total cryptocurrency market capitalization, reaching a two-month high. A rebound in risk appetite has prompted capital to flow into highly volatile altcoins. Although interest rate cut expectations have been postponed to twice in 2025, market speculation about the Fed's future easing policies still provides potential upward momentum for crypto assets, especially as altcoins may benefit from expectations of improved liquidity. The RSI indicator for ETH has entered the overbought zone (72), and some altcoins like VIRTUAL are facing profit-taking pressure after surging 45%, necessitating caution against pullback risks. If the results of Sino-US trade negotiations result in a deadlock, it may suppress the current upward trend. Additionally, delays in the approval of altcoin ETFs and regulatory ambiguities in DeFi remain long-term constraints. It is necessary to filter projects with solid fundamentals (such as AI combined with blockchain and high-performance Layer-1 chains) and avoid chasing concept tokens excessively. Historical data shows that altcoin seasons typically start after Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase; if BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital rotation may accelerate. In summary, recent altcoin trends show significant signs of recovery, but the market is still in a tug-of-war phase between bulls and bears, requiring strategy adjustments based on technicals, macro policies, and on-chain data dynamics.

#BNB走势
On May 5th, the asset management company VanEck officially submitted an application for a BNB spot ETF, triggering a strong market response. Within two hours of the announcement, the price of BNB rose by 7.2% from $580.45 to $622.18, and the 24-hour trading volume surged by 43% to $1.87 billion, indicating an increase in expectations for institutional funds entering the market. If approved, BNB will gain broader institutional liquidity support and become a mainstream asset allocation target.
At the beginning of May, BNB fluctuated within the range of $580-595, forming a “consolidation convergence” pattern, which typically signals significant volatility. The 4-hour MACD showed a bullish cross, and the daily RSI was at 58, indicating that upward momentum has not yet been exhausted.
On May 6th, BNB broke through the 50-day moving average ($590.30) and stabilized above the psychological level of $600, with a short-term target pointing to a resistance level of $640, and if broken, could challenge the historical high of $793.86. Over the past week, large transactions exceeding $100,000 have increased by 22%, and the exchange's BNB balance has dropped to the lowest level since 2021 (2.2 million), with supply tightening supporting the price.
BNB achieves deflation through a quarterly burn mechanism, with total supply reduced by nearly 30% from the initial amount (current circulating supply of 142 million), resulting in an annual deflation rate of 4.77%. Its scarcity surpasses that of Bitcoin, making it the only asset among the top ten cryptocurrencies with an active deflationary mechanism.
Short-term (mid to late May): If it holds above $640 and breaks through the previous high of $793.86, a new round of upward cycle may begin; if it pulls back below $600, attention should be paid to the support range of $580-595, and after stabilizing, it still has rebound momentum.
$Long-term: Institutional adoption (if ETF is approved), deflationary mechanisms, and ecosystem expansion (DeFi, AI projects) constitute the core driving forces, with Standard Chartered's target of $2,775 implying a potential increase of about 360%.

$BNB

BTTC has arrived again, although not much, every little bit counts $BTC

Wanlian welink BTC

On May 7, $ETH Ethereum completed the Pectra upgrade, introducing improvements to wallet functionality, increased staking limits, and other optimizations. Although the market response was tepid at the beginning of the upgrade (with ETH price around $1,810 on May 8), it suddenly surged by 20% within the next 24 hours, peaking at $2,230, with open contracts increasing by 21%, leading to a massive liquidation of short positions. Some analysts view this rebound as a turning point, potentially linked to the technical confidence brought by the upgrade and favorable macro policies (such as the US-UK trade agreement).

ETH tested the support level of $1,750-$1,770 in early May, then broke through the resistance zone of $1,880-$1,900, targeting $2,100-$2,300.
The RSI (58) and MACD golden cross on the 4-hour chart show bullish momentum, but the daily RSI (75.1) is near the overbought zone, which raises caution for short-term pullback risks.
May has traditionally been a strong month for ETH, with an average return rate of 27.36%. Despite ETH dropping 56% in the first four months of 2025, historical patterns still provide optimistic expectations for the market.

The Ethereum trend in May 2025 showed a 'first suppression then rise' characteristic, with a technical rebound after the Pectra upgrade and macro policy support pushing prices through key resistance. Although short-term overbought signals and leverage risks should be monitored, on-chain data, whale accumulation, and historical seasonal patterns still support a bullish logic in the medium to long term. Investors may look for opportunities to position themselves in the $1,900-$2,000 range during pullbacks, while closely tracking ETF fund flows and ecological development dynamics. If ETH stabilizes above $2,300, it may challenge the $2,950 target by the end of the second quarter (based on a historical average return rate of 62.2%).

On May 9, 2023, the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded $4 billion in a single week, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity holding over 8% of the circulating supply, becoming a major support for the price. As of May 9, the total holdings of the ETF reached 1.136 million BTC, valued at approximately $10.96 billion.

MicroStrategy continues to increase its BTC holdings through bond issuance, and companies like Japan's Metaplanet are accelerating their layouts; New Hampshire and Texas have passed bills to allocate Bitcoin reserves, reshaping valuation logic with sovereign-level demand.

Exchange BTC balances have dropped to their lowest level since 2021 (2.2 million BTC), with large whales reducing their holdings in the short term but long-term holders' (LTH) share rising, tightening market supply and supporting prices.

The weekly Bitcoin chart has formed a 'bullish flag' structure, with a theoretical target price of $150,000. If it stabilizes above $104,000, the short-term resistance level is $106,500, while the mid-term may challenge $119,000.
Technical indicators show a bullish arrangement (MA5/20/50 moving upwards), but the daily RSI is overbought (75.1), indicating a need to be cautious of short-term pullback risks.
If the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts or inflation data exceeds expectations (such as CPI over 4.5%), it could trigger a correlated decline. The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.72, necessitating caution against traditional market volatility transmission.

- **Technical Breakthrough**: If BTC stabilizes at $104,000 and breaks the previous high of $109,200, it could initiate the second phase of the bull market; if it falls below the psychological level of $100,000, it may short-term retrace to the support levels of $93,000 to $96,000.
- **Capital Trends**: Whether ETF inflows can break $1 billion in a single day, changes in institutional holdings, and fluctuations in exchange stablecoin inventory.
- **External Variables**: Details of Trump's Middle East policy, and the impact of Ethereum's Pectra upgrade on ecological capital rotation.

The recent strong rebound in the crypto market has restored confidence among investors! Bitcoin was the first to break through key resistance levels, driving mainstream coins and altcoins to rise broadly, with market liquidity clearly improving. This rebound may be closely related to the rising expectations of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes and improvements in macro liquidity. The technical weekly level bullish divergence signals also indicate a potential medium-term trend reversal.

Although some indicators show that the RSI has entered the overbought zone, there may be short-term pullback pressure, but the market sentiment index has jumped from 'extreme fear' to 'greed', and the surge in derivatives open interest indicates that the bulls have regained control. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to gradually allocate core assets, avoid high-leverage chasing, and pay attention to the movements of large on-chain holders and marginal changes in regulatory policies. Historical data shows that the year-end liquidity easing period often accompanies phase explosions in the crypto market. Will this rebound evolve into a bull market? Time will tell, but at least, the warmth in this winter is enough to uplift spirits!

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