On May 9, 2023, the net inflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF exceeded $4 billion in a single week, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity holding over 8% of the circulating supply, becoming a major support for the price. As of May 9, the total holdings of the ETF reached 1.136 million BTC, valued at approximately $10.96 billion.

MicroStrategy continues to increase its BTC holdings through bond issuance, and companies like Japan's Metaplanet are accelerating their layouts; New Hampshire and Texas have passed bills to allocate Bitcoin reserves, reshaping valuation logic with sovereign-level demand.

Exchange BTC balances have dropped to their lowest level since 2021 (2.2 million BTC), with large whales reducing their holdings in the short term but long-term holders' (LTH) share rising, tightening market supply and supporting prices.

The weekly Bitcoin chart has formed a 'bullish flag' structure, with a theoretical target price of $150,000. If it stabilizes above $104,000, the short-term resistance level is $106,500, while the mid-term may challenge $119,000.

Technical indicators show a bullish arrangement (MA5/20/50 moving upwards), but the daily RSI is overbought (75.1), indicating a need to be cautious of short-term pullback risks.

If the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts or inflation data exceeds expectations (such as CPI over 4.5%), it could trigger a correlated decline. The 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.72, necessitating caution against traditional market volatility transmission.

- **Technical Breakthrough**: If BTC stabilizes at $104,000 and breaks the previous high of $109,200, it could initiate the second phase of the bull market; if it falls below the psychological level of $100,000, it may short-term retrace to the support levels of $93,000 to $96,000.

- **Capital Trends**: Whether ETF inflows can break $1 billion in a single day, changes in institutional holdings, and fluctuations in exchange stablecoin inventory.

- **External Variables**: Details of Trump's Middle East policy, and the impact of Ethereum's Pectra upgrade on ecological capital rotation.