Cryptocurrency Market Regulation and Market Analysis (June 13, 2025)

I. Regulatory Dynamics and Market Impact

SEC Delays ETF Decision

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Bitwise Dogecoin, Grayscale Hedera, and VanEck Avalanche ETFs. In the short term, this may suppress sentiment for related tokens, but in the medium to long term, the ETF approval process remains an important signal for the compliance of the cryptocurrency market. If approved later, it could attract traditional capital inflows, creating structural benefits.

II. Technical Analysis and Operational Strategy

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Short-term pressure release, medium-term focus on macro catalysts:

The daily chart shows continuous volume decline, breaking through the key support level of 103,000, with a short-term test of the 95,000 area. If a support platform can be established here, combined with expectations of ETF capital inflows and a shift towards monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, it may still challenge previous highs. In operation, focus on the support at 102,000-103,000 during the day, with resistance at 105,000-106,000; if it falls below $95,000 in the medium term, caution is advised for trend deterioration.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Clear support at the bottom of the range, focus on volume changes:

After a failed attempt to rise to 2,800, the daily chart has retreated and is currently testing the support at the bottom of the range at 2,480. If it stabilizes with reduced volume, it can be viewed as a buying opportunity, targeting the breakout situation at 2,700; if it breaks down with increased volume, caution is needed for trend reversal risks. In operation, focus on the support at 2,480-2,450 during the day, with resistance at 2,560-2,580; if it stabilizes above 2,700 with increased volume in the medium term, the target could rise to $3,050.

3. Altcoins

Systematic correction, caution for liquidity risks:

Heightened geopolitical risks have led to risk aversion in funding, resulting in significant declines in altcoins. In the short term, caution is needed for the chain reaction triggered by Bitcoin falling below 103,000 and Ethereum falling below 2,480. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and wait for market panic to stabilize before selectively investing in quality projects (such as leading L1/L2s). In the medium term, monitor market capital absorption capacity when U.S. Treasuries mature; if Ethereum stabilizes, some quality altcoins may present explosive opportunities.