Lilliam Swingen n3h7

Retail behavior over the past week has seen Bitcoin oscillating around $100,000, with a surge in retail trading volume. Swissblock data shows significant selling pressure in the $94,000-$95,000 range, but bullish sentiment has increased after breaking through the $92,000 mark on a weekly basis. Institutional dynamics indicate that the US Bitcoin spot ETF size has exceeded $50 billion, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity continuing to increase their holdings. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if the SAB-121 regulation is abolished, banks could hold digital assets directly, potentially leading to an explosive growth in institutional capital inflows.

  从今天整体走势来看，大饼行情多方稍微占优，截至发盘，大饼处106000点下方，大饼下午突破30min的区间高点，当下唯一思考的就是该突破是否有效，如果是诱多的行为，那么追进去就非常危险。当下大饼处于4h的下降通道重，大方向还是空头趋势为止，要想反转，有效突破4h的233均线才是必要条件，不然任何的反弹都是当作诱多行为。个人观点：行情大波动即将到来，切勿随意追涨杀跌，耐心等待明确信号进场。$BTC

Analysis yesterday indicated that Bitcoin and Ethereum are constrained by the 233 moving average on the 4-hour chart. As long as this level cannot be effectively broken, the current market should be viewed with a bearish perspective. This afternoon, Bitcoin suddenly showed unusual movement, attempting to break above this moving average, and Ethereum followed suit, but Bitcoin's strength was more pronounced than Ethereum's. This unusual movement is quite promising, as it suggests that the market is close to choosing a direction and it is difficult to remain in a range at this level for an extended period. If tonight this moving average cannot be broken, it basically indicates that the rebound this afternoon was a trap for bulls or a fluctuation caused by the liquidation of high leverage. Regardless of the reason, a significant market movement is imminent, and for short-term traders, it is essential to set appropriate stop-losses to avoid being caught in a one-sided market.

Last night, the US stock market was closed, and the cryptocurrency market seemed to simultaneously enter a 'holiday mode', with trading volume plummeting and the market almost coming to a standstill. The current Bitcoin has clearly become a shadow of the US stock market—low volatility, high stance, a typical mainstream asset vibe. However, at the same time, the old altcoins in the CEX are suffering more and more, with prices returning to square one and liquidity nearly depleted. If in the past it was 'everyone fighting for the territory and sharing the spoils', now it feels more like 'the big brother is promoting and awarding titles, while the brothers are scattered across the world'.

Since mid-June, military conflicts between Israel and Iran have fully escalated, no longer just a shadow war, but substantive transnational strikes. Starting with the Israel Defense Forces' 'Rising Lion Operation', the targets have expanded to multiple core cities and infrastructure within Iran, including downtown Tehran, Isfahan's nuclear research facilities, and southern ports. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory missile attacks, severely damaging energy facilities such as Israel's Haifa Bazan refinery. More importantly, the flames of war have affected civilian television stations, hospitals, and urban energy networks. $USDC

From the pricing of CME federal funds rate futures, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June has reached 99%, and the probability of not lowering the interest rate in July has also exceeded 85%. Although the market still maintains expectations for a rate cut in September, if oil prices and tariffs continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, the possibility that the Federal Reserve chooses to continue delaying and waiting for more data to validate should not be overlooked.

In the past week, the main narrative of the market has been almost completely dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the ongoing deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, which has become the core factor influencing the price fluctuations of risk assets. Whether it is the U.S. tariff policy, which should have had trending topics, or the recently released retail and import price data, both have gradually been marginalized in the context of escalating conflicts. Investors' attention has clearly shifted from macro fundamentals to the pricing logic of war risks. Especially at a time when both tariffs and inflation are exerting pressure, the surge in oil prices brought about by geopolitical conflicts has further compressed the policy space of the Federal Reserve.

Yesterday morning, Bitcoin experienced a wave of oversold rebound at the hourly level, but soon after, market sentiment turned sharply negative, starting a continuous decline for 13 hours in the afternoon. After the US stock market opened, short sellers intensified their efforts, causing the price to quickly drop to a low of 103371 (Binance spot price), only recovering slightly in the early morning hours, currently reporting around 104500. The daily chart shows a candlestick with a significant upper and lower shadow and a relatively long body, with trading volume increasing by one-third compared to the previous day, indicating intensified bullish and bearish struggles. Although the price attempted to break through the daily MA30 moving average resistance, it ultimately pulled back after a high, gaining brief support after retesting the EMA52 moving average. $USDC

The market share of Bitcoin has risen to 64.1%. According to historical patterns, once it breaks through 64%, it often indicates that the market is about to enter altcoin season — the final frenzy of a bull market. Time waits for no one, and if the cyclical patterns still hold, then October of this year will be the endpoint of this bull market. The remaining months of July, August, September, and October will become the last window for altcoins to rally and offload. Market makers need sufficient time and space to complete their distribution, and now, there is not much time left for the market.

The US Senate passed a stablecoin regulation bill, but the market reacted tepidly. Cryptocurrency concept stocks fell broadly, with TRX-related stock SRM plummeting 15.9%. On-chain fast-track projects are booming: $rasmr has a market value of tens of millions of dollars, and $PAWSE has a market value of 70 million dollars.

At 2 AM tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market is closely watching for signals of interest rate cuts. If the dot plot indicates only one rate cut this year (instead of the expected two), or if Powell's statements lean hawkish, the dollar may strengthen. Currently, the market bets on the first rate cut happening in September. The situation in the Middle East is tense, but the market is reacting calmly to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, as the U.S. increases its military presence in the Middle East. The next 48 hours are crucial. Analysts believe that the market has become 'immune' to geopolitical risks and is not in a state of excessive panic.

The Bitcoin spot ETF, with a trading volume now accounting for 25% of global BTC spot trading, has significantly risen from 10% in October 2024. This proportion was close to 30% two weeks ago, indicating strong demand from both institutions and retail investors for regulated Bitcoin exposure. The Bitcoin spot ETF is considered one of the most successful ETF products in financial history, as it avoids technical barriers such as crypto wallet custody and private key management, attracting a substantial influx of capital. Investors particularly value the familiar compliance environment provided by ETFs, simplified tax handling, and reduced counterparty risk. Industry analysis indicates that traditional financial infrastructure on Wall Street is quickly capturing market share, while the dominance of crypto-native exchanges is gradually diminishing.

As of June 16, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a narrow fluctuation pattern. According to data from Coin World, the current price of BTC/USDT is $105,367.20, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of $104,494.53 - $106,128.57, and trading volume has shrunk compared to previous days. The technical aspect shows multiple intertwined signals $BTC

#越南加密政策 opens the trading software, watching the fluctuating numbers, many people secretly harbor a dream of getting rich quickly. In trading markets like cryptocurrency and stocks, everyone starts out wanting to make money, hoping to make a quick profit, and even fantasizing about achieving financial freedom through a single trade. However, seasoned trading experts who have been through the ups and downs of the market for years pursue a seemingly counterintuitive state of 'detachment'. This does not mean they do not want to make money, but rather they have seen through it all; emotions like greed, fear, and impatience are like tripwires. Only by freeing themselves from these emotions and calmly following the market's laws can they establish a foothold in this uncertain market.

The Dow Jones index fell nearly 900 points as capital defensively shifted to bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping nearly 3%, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling about 3%, reflecting a global market reducing risk.

Gold [XAU] also responded, rising nearly 4% to $3,432 amid a surge in safe-haven demand. Technically, gold is currently just within reach, only 2% away from returning to its historical high.

$BTC

The drop of 7% in Bitcoin (#特朗普比特币金库 ) indicates that macro pressures are rising, and the market is readjusting. With an increase in safe-haven capital flows, gold prices are still only 2% away from their historical highs. Macro fears and uncertainties (FUD) have returned to the discussion, but to be honest, they never really disappeared. Conversely, Bitcoin [BTC] has once again become the target of criticism. After three days of deep deleveraging, the discussion of 'Is $100,000 at risk?' has become active again. However, BTC did not continue to drop for long. It made a strong rebound of 3% and tested the $105,000 level again, and this trend does not seem to be fleeting.

Bitcoin remains above $105K, geopolitical tensions drive up volatility, but the market's adaptability has largely absorbed the panic sell-off following the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. Bitcoin shows a certain resilience as tensions in Iran drive a rapid rebound. History indicates that BTC often recovers quickly after geopolitical conflicts $ADA

54,877,476,655 Bitcoin has gradually stabilized and rebounded after experiencing geopolitical shocks the previous day. It rebounded from a significant pullback low of $102,746 on June 13 to around $105,352. The market has solidified its footing at the key support level of $105,000, geopolitical risk sentiment has slightly eased, and the technical aspect shows a mild rebound pattern after a consolidation phase.

Ukraine announced the legalization of Bitcoin on the eve of the conflict, and quickly opened official cryptocurrency donation channels after the outbreak of hostilities, receiving millions of dollars in donations from around the world within just two days. Civil organizations in both Russia and Ukraine have also raised funds through Bitcoin and stablecoins to support the front lines or humanitarian aid. This conflict has been referred to by outsiders as the "first crypto war" because borderless, censorship-resistant cryptocurrencies have become a lifeline for the flow of funds. $ETH

In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, and global financial markets were thrown into turmoil. The price of Bitcoin plummeted from $39,000 to $35,000, with a 10% drop in 24 hours and a further decline of 20.4% within a week. Panic spread across the market, and cryptocurrencies seemed no exception. However, Bitcoin demonstrated unexpected resilience during the crisis. $BTC