逆青年

$ETH From the daily level, the current technical signals and market structure of ETH show a brewing potential for 'violent pullback after extreme overbought', which may even trigger a 'black swan waterfall'. The core logic is dissected as follows:

1. Extreme overbought signal: Indicators collectively warn

1. RSI severely overbought (84.90)

- Daily RSI1 breaks above 80, and all three lines (RSI1/2/3) are above 70 in the overbought range. Historically, this situation occurs with over 90% probability of at least a 20% pullback (refer to the top of the bull market in 2021 and the pullback after ETH broke above 4000 in 2024).

$CFX Conflux (CFX) In-depth Analysis Report: Ecological Summit Ignites Market, Triple Resonance of Technology, Scenarios, and Capital$CFX

1. Real-time Market Data: Funds are flooding in, breakout patterns established

Current Core Data (July 29, 2025, 16:38):

- Price: $0.25879 (24-hour increase of 38.15%), reaching a new high since December 2024
- Trading Volume: 28.32 billion CFX traded in the last 24 hours (approximately 650 million USDT), an increase of 2955% from the previous day
- Technical Indicators: EMA7 (0.26145) crosses above EMA25 (0.26099) forming a golden cross, MACD red column continues to expand, RSI (14) reaches 68.5 (not overbought), strong upward momentum

$VINE The current price of VINE (Vine Coin) has broken 0.17 USD (0.17115 USD), rising further from the previous high of 0.16959 USD, reflecting an increase in market speculation. Based on the latest on-chain data and technical signals, the analysis can be approached from the following dimensions:

I. Core Variables Driven by Price

1. Continuous Intervention of Whale Funds
On-chain data shows that on July 29, a whale address withdrew approximately 5 million USD worth of VINE tokens from Bybit and placed orders in batches on Solana's on-chain DEX (like Jupiter), pushing the price up from 0.165 USD to 0.171 USD. At the same time, the address increased its holdings of 15 million VINE on LBank, accounting for 1.2% of the total supply, indicating short-term manipulation intentions.

$VINE After VINE (Vine Coin) price broke through $0.16, there was extreme volatility, peaking at $0.16959 before retreating to $0.16351, forming a typical 'wicked spike' pattern. By combining the latest market dynamics and on-chain data, we can analyze it from the following dimensions:

1. Core drivers of price volatility

1. On-chain liquidity manipulation and whale games
On July 28, a whale address injected about $2 million in liquidity through Solana's DEX (such as Jupiter) in batches, quickly pushing the VINE/USDT trading pair price up to $0.16959. This action may have been intended to test upper resistance levels or attract follow-up buying. However, the address quickly withdrew about $1.8 million worth of VINE tokens from LBank and sold them, causing the price to drop below $0.163 within 15 minutes. On-chain data shows that the concentration of holdings among the top ten addresses increased slightly from 45% to 46%, with some whales increasing their positions when the price peaked, possibly preparing for a subsequent pump.

$CFX Combining the deep binding of Conflux (CFX) with China's 'Belt and Road' policy and its strategic layout in cross-border financial scenarios, the core reason for CFX's 14% price drop today can be attributed to the systematic encirclement of Chinese digital finance by the U.S. and the West. The following analysis will unfold from three dimensions: policy games, technological competition, and market reactions, with a special emphasis on the deep analysis of the abnormal trading behavior of 'abnormal mode dumping'.

1. Policy Game: The Precision Strike of the U.S. and the West on 'Belt and Road' Blockchain Infrastructure

1. Direct Impact of Regulatory Overreach

$CFX Related information has been verified. Conflux has indeed participated in several pilot projects in China, as detailed below:

- The Belt and Road Initiative's super-large-scale blockchain infrastructure platform project: initiated by the Chinese government, led by the Shanghai Tree Graph Blockchain Research Institute (Conflux), with participation from multiple entities including the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. The project aims to develop a blockchain infrastructure platform that supports multi-country deployment and multi-entity collaborative regulation, and to carry out cross-border cooperation demonstration applications in the fields of economic trade and culture.
- Green Energy Battery Swap Asset RWA Project: Conflux Network, in conjunction with Ant Group, has jointly participated in and promoted the implementation of China's first green energy battery swap asset RWA project. The project is supported by Conflux's underlying blockchain technology, IoT technology provided by Ant Group, and will issue and custody financial products through licensed compliance institutions in Hong Kong.

$PUMP The current PUMP price of $0.00407 has dropped 40% from its historical high ($0.0067) and has fallen below the previously analyzed short-term support level of $0.0051, reflecting market concerns about its overvaluation and deteriorating fundamentals are being realized. Combining the latest market dynamics and on-chain data, the logic of speculation at this price level presents a complex situation of intertwined long and short positions:

1. Core Drivers of the Current Price

1. Liquidity exhaustion and panic selling
On-chain data shows that the top ten holders have a concentration of 68%, and exchanges like Kraken and Bybit have recently frequently transferred out PUMP. For example, on July 15, DWF Labs transferred 2.5 billion PUMP (worth $17.42 million) to exchanges, increasing market selling pressure. At the same time, the daily trading volume on the Pump.fun platform has plummeted from $5.44 million in January to $700,000, with declining user activity directly leading to a sharp drop in protocol revenue, weakening the buyback mechanism's support for the token price.