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President Donald Trump is not cutting any China tariffs unless Beijing gives something up. That’s what the White House told reporters on Friday, just hours after the president threw out the idea of reducing the brutal 145% tariff rate to 80%.

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “That was a number the president threw out there, and we’ll see what happens this weekend.” She made it clear nothing’s changing unless the Chinese side comes to the table with real concessions.

This is happening as top officials from both countries are heading to Geneva for talks this Saturday and Sunday. These will be the first face-to-face meetings since Trump pushed US tariffs on Chinese imports up to 145%, and China hit back with a 125% rate on American goods.

That back-and-forth has slammed the brakes on trade between the two biggest economies on earth, and now there’s a real fear that this mess could drag everyone into a wider economic crash.

Talks begin with both sides digging in

Even though both governments are walking into the room, no one expects some big breakthrough. It took weeks just to agree to meet, and right now, the goal seems to be figuring out where to even begin. The vibe isn’t friendly. It’s tactical. No one wants to look like they gave in first.

“Neither side wants to appear to be backing down,” said Stephen Olson, who used to be a trade negotiator for the US and now works as a senior visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “The talks are taking place now because both countries have judged that they can move forward without appearing to have caved into the other side.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters on Wednesday that the meeting is only happening because Washington requested it. The Commerce Ministry backed that up, saying the talks are a response to pressure from American companies and buyers.

But Trump isn’t having any of that. At the White House this week, he pushed back hard. “They said we initiated? Well, I think they ought to go back and study their files,” he said. In his view, it’s China that wants a deal because, according to him, “their economy is collapsing.”

Still, the damage from the tariffs is obvious on both sides. Chinese factories have slowed down. Official data shows manufacturing output fell to its lowest level since December 2023, and Caixin’s latest survey says services are at a seven-month low. The BBC reported that Chinese exporters are stuck with stockpiles sitting in warehouses while they scramble to find buyers outside the US.

American industries and voters feel the pain

Trump says the tariffs will make America stronger in the long run, but he’s also admitted they’re going to hurt. He told his cabinet that US kids “may have two dolls instead of 30 dolls,” and those two might cost a few bucks more.

A toy company owner in Los Angeles told the BBC that their business is staring down the “total implosion of the supply chain.” And it’s not just toys. Across multiple industries, companies that rely on parts or goods from China are reporting shortages, rising costs, and delayed deliveries.

Over in Beijing, officials waited until the long May Day holiday ended before agreeing to sit down. Bert Hofman, a professor at the National University of Singapore, said, “I think [China] realises that a deal is better than no deal.” He added, “So they’ve taken a pragmatic view and said, ‘OK, well, we need to get these talks going.’”

Meanwhile, the US economy just shrank for the first time in three years. That’s not something the Trump administration can spin away easily. His approval numbers have slipped, with more than 60% of Americans saying he’s putting too much focus on tariffs. The fear of inflation and another recession is growing, and the White House knows it. Sadly, it doesn’t care very much.

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