链圈说币

News:

1. The White House report releases a nuclear-level signal!
The just-exposed preview of the White House digital asset report directly confirms: a major shift in U.S. policy! The Trump team is secretly pushing a legislative framework for the 'Cryptocurrency Golden Era', which includes 'Bitcoin Spot ETF 2.0', 'Nationalization of Stablecoins', and 'DeFi Tax Exemption Plan'!
This is at least 6 months ahead of market expectations, Wall Street insiders have already started madly reallocating!

2. Trump-themed coins are collectively going wild!
TRUMP surged 40% in an hour, POLITICO's trading volume broke 100 million, bets on Trump winning have skyrocketed!

3700 is like a magical barrier; if broken, the sky is the limit; if dropped below, hidden currents surge—ETH is writing a new market script.
News:

Technical Analysis:
The 1-hour candlestick shows a typical oscillation pattern:
Key Resistance Level: 3708
Important Support Level: 3665.
MACD Indicator: DIF and DEA are glued together, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Trading Volume: Currently 280,000 ETH, below the 5-day average of 350,000.

Core Observation:
Institutional Movements: BlackRock has added 150,000 ETH to its holdings.
On-chain Data: A certain whale address transferred 80,000 ETH to the exchange.
Options Market: The open interest for options with a strike price of 3700 surged, indicating a contest for key levels.

"The longer the sideways movement, the more intense the change - no celebration if it doesn't break 119,800, no panic if it doesn't fall below 115,700!"
News:

Current market: Fibonacci range oscillation
BTC 1-hour level is stuck in the Fibonacci zone of 115,700-119,812, key points:
Ceiling 119,812: 100% Fibonacci level, a breakout is needed to start a new trend
Floor price 115,700: 0% Fibonacci level, breaking below may accelerate downward movement
Watershed 117,756: 50% position, dividing line of long and short strength

Technical perspective:
MACD golden cross but with decreasing volume: DIF crosses above DEA, but the red bars shorten, indicating insufficient upward momentum

Blockchain analysis
Almost everyone is making money and wants to cash out:
According to reports, over 90% of people currently holding XRP are making a profit! Especially when the price surged to $3.6 recently, the proportion of profit-making individuals reached over 93%.
My view is: this is actually quite a dangerous signal. Think about it, if almost everyone holding the coins is making money, then certainly there will be a large number of people thinking 'take the profit and run', hastily selling to secure their profits.
Historical experience also tells us that when over 90% of people are in profit, it often indicates that the price is nearing its peak, making it prone to decline. Now that so many people want to sell, the price is naturally being driven down.

The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 AM tonight!

Currently, the market generally expects this meeting will not result in a rate cut, with the real rate cut window occurring in September. Tonight, we need to focus on two major signals:

1. Powell's press conference at 2:30 AM. If he signals "possible early rate cuts," the market will start preheating in advance.

2. Funds are quietly positioning themselves in the low range of August, betting on a turning point in September's market.

My positioning direction is very clear: ETH, UNI, ENA, SOL, JUP, HUMA. Remember—don't wait until the results are announced to follow the trend; position yourself in advance. A profit space of 3-10 times is beckoning you.

"ETH breaks through the $3800 mark today! But those chasing highs at this moment need to be cautious; the main force is laying out a precise 'fluctuation wash'!"
This morning, the analysis team discovered through a multi-dimensional data model that a dense pressure zone has formed around $3820. The internal quantitative system shows that this price point has gathered a large amount of historical trapped positions and main force orders.

Short-term breakout needs to meet two conditions:
First, the daily trading volume must increase to more than 1.5 times that of the previous day.
Second, a valid breakout of the upper Bollinger Band is needed.

Why is $3820 so critical?
Dense position area: Historical K-lines show that the two rounds of adjustments on March 14 and April 8 formed a phase top near $3820, where a large amount of trapped positions have settled.

A major earthquake in the crypto space! Bitcoin has just broken below the key psychological price level of 118,000 USDT, currently quoted at 117,968.27 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 0.38%.

This volatility seems mild but hides secrets—why did BTC suddenly 'lose' key levels against the backdrop of institutional funds pouring in and the ongoing ETF craze? This article deeply dissects three core factors, revealing the truth behind this crash!
1. Technical front: Bears counterattack, 118,000 becomes the 'line of demarcation' between bulls and bears.
BTC briefly touched a historical high of $123,000 on July 29 before quickly encountering short attacks.
On-chain data shows that over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours, but bulls have not formed a sustained counterattack.

Ethereum is stuck at 3800 dollars, with a 3.6 billion dollar time bomb buried within a 200 dollar range:
1. Breaking above 4000: 2 billion short positions will be forcibly liquidated, pushing prices higher with buying pressure.
2. Breaking below 3630: 1.6 billion long positions will be liquidated, triggering a panic sell-off.
The market is as fragile as paper; breaking in either direction will trigger a chain reaction, leading to a runaway market.

The big players hold the knife and choose their targets:
1. Short army explosion: Breaking above 4000, using short covering as profit fuel. I think: It's too costly, with high risk of being trapped at high levels.
2. Killing the bulls: Breaking through 3630, picking up cheap chips from panic selling. However: It could shatter confidence or encounter a strong bottom-fishing rebound.