刘多鱼

Wall Street has gained actual control over Bitcoin, and miners no longer have the ability to influence the market.
This is something I have been emphasizing over the past year, and it is also the reason why I have asserted that Bitcoin will enter a small peak before the halving. Brother Zhao’s visit to the United States means that the ETF application must be approved, although this sounds like It's like a conspiracy that has been laid out for a long time, but it is a conspiracy. When people were still talking about how they would not take over Bitcoin at a high price, Wall Street already had actual control over Bitcoin. This is the reality. They can influence the market, not only the crypto market, but they can influence the world's rich businessmen and celebrities, and even wars. In previous articles, I have emphasized many times that the market value of Bitcoin is as simple as buying a stuffed toy for them to play with. I also firmly believe that they are not targeting the three walnuts and two dates in our hands and spending several years planning to use their century-old reputation to endorse Bitcoin. They must be targeting wealthy businessmen and celebrities. Is it really impossible to apply for approval five years ago? Obviously it can be applied for approval, but at that time, miners' income could influence the market, and applying for approval before this halving means that miners have lost their ability to influence the market. You may not believe it, but the fact is that Wall Street is about to control a financial world that exists with the Internet, and it is still a year-round engine. As long as they use some tricks to let giants such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Buffett buy and store them, technology companies and wealthy people around the world will follow suit. This is the trend. Do you think this is enough? After they promote Bitcoin to the altar, they will also promote the tokenization of real assets. This is a trillion-dollar market. #内容挖坑 #BTC $BTC $BNB $SOL

Recently, I talked about real estate with a friend who owns many properties. My advice to him is to give up most of his properties, as real estate cannot outperform most assets. In any country, real estate is a livelihood issue. When I first started, I dealt with real estate, and now I think it has been 15 years; back then, the news about real estate was all about living, not speculation.

For people in the country, allocating some assets related to rare mineral metals, or even buying A-shares, is much better than holding a large amount of real estate. From an economic perspective, we will surely focus on strengthening finance for a long time, and tariff issues will not affect our overall economic direction; tariffs are relatively minor issues compared to (T) problems for the domestic economy.

The country has been talking about developing the service industry, and actually, the next statement tells everyone that we should follow the path of strengthening finance in the future. The service industry and finance are complementary, and with the arrival of artificial intelligence, many governments will shift towards an energy-based society. Allocating some rare resources will definitely yield better returns than most real estate, plus Europe and the United States will focus on large-scale infrastructure projects in the next ten years.

For the cryptocurrency space, from now on, focusing on the infrastructure advantages of public chains can support how many stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA infrastructure are all good investment directions. Based on my current limited understanding, Ethereum is far ahead among all public chains; its decentralization and modular systems like L2 and L3 surpass all other public chains. It's like the J-10C carrying the PL-15 against the Rafale; the J-10C itself is not as good as the Rafale, but its modular synergy efficiency far exceeds that of the Rafale.

Do not pay too much attention to Bitcoin being at 100,000 USD now; Bitcoin's unexpected returns will gradually weaken, and it also carries the risk of leveraged loans like MicroStrategy that have not been released or resolved.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

Based solely on stablecoin legislation and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum has been severely undervalued. Ethereum is the means of production for the virtual economy. Currently, Ethereum's market value is significantly underestimated, because the valuation paradigm in the cryptocurrency market has not yet shifted from the logic of mined coins to the logic of government bonds.

Interestingly, the Ethereum team is not a startup, but people always tend to view Ethereum from a commercial company perspective. Once Ethereum is truly valued as a decentralized sovereign asset, its value will undergo a qualitative change.

Based on market capitalization ratio, Ethereum is currently severely undervalued ~

$BTC $ETH #btc #eth

The U.S. GDP has experienced a cliff-like negative growth. In my view, the global economy has long been facing significant problems. For the past decade or so, the global economy has essentially been sustained by a combination of excessive issuance, leniency, and asset bubbles, remaining in a low-growth phase. The U.S., Europe, and Japan have all fallen into a quagmire of low growth, low inflation, and high debt— the three lows and one high— relying on financialization, debt expansion, and technological monopolies to maintain the illusion of growth. In contrast, the domestic economy can still maintain systemic expansion in areas such as infrastructure, manufacturing, digitization, and supply chains, which is indeed an extremely rare phenomenon in economic history.~

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine was still the world's third strongest, with a trinity of nuclear deterrence, 180 intercontinental missiles, over 2800 nuclear warheads, 19 White Swans, 25 Tu-95s, countless short-range tactical nuclear weapons, missiles, nuclear torpedoes, combat aircraft, armored vehicles, and tanks. It also inherited the Southern Design Bureau of the Soviet Union and Motor Sich, one of the world's strongest helicopter and aircraft engine manufacturers, a complete national-level strategic system. Yet, for the sake of dollars and promises, it gradually self-destructed in the illusion of peace, becoming a victim of geopolitical games.

How many men's dream machines are the White Swans? One American aircraft costs two to three million dollars for disassembly fees, and Ukraine has dismantled 10 of them with cutting machines and excavators. Now it seems the cost of freedom is too heavy~

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

Seeing many friends say that there is no problem with the U.S. debt, from a static perspective, the U.S. national debt can indeed hold up for now. For example, while the debt-to-GDP ratio is high, the interest rate burden has not yet overwhelmed the finances, and tax revenues can cover most of the interest expenses. There is still global demand, especially the inertia of the dollar as a reserve currency. But the problem lies in sustainability. Once interest rates remain high, or new bond yields continue to rise, the self-rolling mechanism of the U.S. national debt system will fall into accelerated deterioration. Every one percentage point increase does not merely mean an increase in interest expenses; it accelerates the overall sustainability of federal finances.

Currently, tariffs do not seem to pose a problem. In the short term, tariffs appear to increase fiscal revenue and protect domestic industries. However, in the medium to long term, they will lead to selective economic contraction. Once a contraction occurs, it will create a chain reaction. The impact of tariffs and the burden of national debt are not isolated; they have a high degree of positive feedback. Tariffs lead to economic downturn → tax revenue decreases → fiscal deficit widens → pressure on debt rolling increases.

From a higher-dimensional perspective, the U.S. economy itself remains strong and has a certain internal adjustment capacity. Theoretically, it can gradually achieve structural rebalancing over 5–10 years, such as industrial reshoring, fiscal contraction, and debt repricing. However, the problem with tariffs as a blunt policy tool is that it effectively deprives the U.S. economy of the time window for a smooth transition, accelerates local imbalances, and forces systemic adjustments to erupt prematurely, rather than naturally evolving. In other words, the U.S. could have taken ten years to slowly rebuild its foundations but has instead entered an irreversible tightening spiral due to the combination of tariffs and high-interest rate policies.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

OP and ARB are about to unlock completely, and next we should almost celebrate our great victory by pulling everyone's money to sell coins～

From a narrative perspective, Ethereum L2 is definitely a positive thing in the long run. I would bet with anyone that L2 will prove to be a very successful path. I believe that VCs and institutions no longer need to invest in infrastructure; Web3 itself is based on open-source ideas, and Ethereum and other infrastructures are not competitors.

In the past 5 years, VCs have spent countless amounts of money building chains, bridges, and wallets. Now that the infrastructure is quite complete, what is truly needed is new narratives, new applications, and new user growth stories based on existing infrastructure, rather than investing heavily in more infrastructure. Currently, 60% of the top 20 public chains are meaningless, and some public chains are completely wasting resources～

To be honest, the MeMe chain is also just a circle of funds rolling within the industry, and indeed many projects on the chain have become the preferred washing machines, making money without any fun → money laundering → offloading → changing narratives → continuing to raise funds

$ETH $OP $ARB #op #arb

The market still has many similar tokens like ONDO, Sui, and Sol. Don't be too concerned about short-term fluctuations; in the long run, platform tokens remain quite stable. I hope that everyone who follows me can take 30% of their profits to increase their holdings in platform tokens, and using 30% of platform tokens for swing trading with compound interest is also a good strategy. Taking profits of 5-7% each time is a very good approach.

Market funds will still gravitate towards tokens with revenue models and narratives. Carefully selecting some new narratives, such as BTCFi, RWA, wallets, and other tokens, there are many alliance-type ecosystems that are currently flourishing, but not many people are paying attention to them.

If you like RWA, consider allocating 10% of your funds to find low-market-value RWA projects within the Sol, ETH ecosystem, with market capitalizations around 2000. There should be many such projects currently. BTCFI is also a significant narrative, and the current market cap compression looks quite good.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

The year before last, DWF seemed to have taken on that project from YGG, and it seems they have taken this Mask as well.

Can they recreate the glory of overwhelming the air force? It’s not a big problem to try with a light position and a small amount,

$BTC $MASK $BNB #btc #mask

Heard that there are issues with contracts again? I do not recommend anyone who follows me to play high-leverage contracts. If someone tells you they can make money trading contracts consistently, they are a deity~

I have seen many cases where people took your funds to create counterfeit liquidity. This circle is very small. I know someone who launched a project at a certain place and initially reported some points on Weibo, very accurately bringing in some people to earn a little money. As their reputation grew, the group got bigger, and in the end, they were completely taken advantage of. There are so many such cases...

In addition, there are teams that specifically work on rebate accounts. The blockchain MeMe is also already a complete industrial chain. The world is full of personal connections and incidents. Some traders dealing with small caps are best not to engage with them; small caps are not as wealthy as everyone thinks. A market fluctuation of a few thousand U or a few hundred U can lead to market makers taking losses. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be anyone selling shells. Some small projects suffer daily losses of thousands to eight thousands U, which is painful, but there are also some people using counterfeit rebate accounts to encourage you to gamble frequently. Frequent gambling will surely lead to losses~

Small caps often resemble a rural mahjong table, where people fight over 10 or 20 yuan, causing injuries. Bet less and do not fall for commercial PUA. I have also seen some experts, but they rarely open positions, very rarely.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

Did you believe these pictures when I showed them to you? You wouldn't believe it, just like I said last week that the adjustment of tariffs in three weeks + Trump's attack on the Fed has nothing to do with the interest rate cut is the best fundamentals, you wouldn't believe it either. Most of them are talking at cross purposes, so I rarely communicate with people now.

Do less things that are talking at cross purposes, and sometimes communicating with some people will only affect your thinking ability. Do more and talk less, just like I am working on the protocol now, I also need time to learn.

At present, all public chains close to 80% of the market value of Ethereum are not worth buying. Decentralization is decentralization. Maybe in the future they can achieve expectations by completing decentralization in three to five years, but by then the Ethereum second-layer protocol is estimated to have extended the application layer and there is no competitiveness.

Sol is benchmarking itself, Sui is benchmarking Sol, and some MeMe are hyped. It is meaningless for institutions to hold a large number of chips to pull and smash the market~

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

The positioning of Ethereum L2 is essentially the ceiling level of the current base layer. With the advancement of stablecoin legislation and regulatory compliance, the second-layer design of the base layer will have more obvious advantages in competition.

For example, the current positioning of Cb's Base chain is Rwa, Ok's X chain is for stablecoin payments, UNI chain is for on-chain Dex, and Op is positioned as a Superchain composed of multiple chains.

I personally believe that there will be more and more structures built like this. Although everyone is trading coins, the existence of most public chains is meaningless; many chains are ghost chains that exist without purpose. Moreover, with Web3 being so open, there is no need to waste resources building an independent chain.

$ARB $OP $ETH #arb #op #eth

The logic for choosing Sui was very simple before; it basically involved all the top institutions, and the financing seemed to be over 2 billion USD. However, aside from being fast, there wasn't anything particularly impressive. Cetus is also a member of the Sui ecosystem but has a very small market cap; I remember it only had around 5 million USD in circulating market cap at that time. As for whether Sui will rise to 10 USD, that's up to fate. When this coin was recommended, some people called it nonsense and said to stop promoting it. This account will probably post some ads or similar things in the future; I've had enough of some people's big mouths. Keep pushing and focus on your own work.

Currently, it feels like Arb and OP are also about to get on track. Interestingly, a year ago, Sui was benchmarked against OP and Arb. At that time, as long as OP and Arb rose, Sui would definitely rise; many tokens had competitive attributes.

$ARB $OP $SUI #arb #op s#SUİ

Trump: I have been in touch with the Chinese side to discuss tariff issues.

Chinese side: We have not received any information.

Trump: Negotiations have made substantial progress.

Chinese side: We are completely unaware of this.

Trump: We are considering reducing tariffs by 50%.

Chinese side: We hope the US side respects the facts; currently, there are no negotiations.

Trump: Don't forget, I am the largest consumer market in the world!

Chinese side: You can print money, so can I; but can my market of 1.4 billion people compete with your 300 million?

Both sides have their core interests, but this time, that agreement written with peace might be stuck on some island in the first island chain.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

What Trump Should Do

1. Eliminate Tariffs and End Sanctions Diplomacy

No longer use tariffs to coerce the world, nor sanction to hijack trade. Implement a zero-tariff strategy, end the economic blockade against countries like China, Iran, and Russia, allow global goods to flow freely, attract manufacturing through the market, and win competition through fairness.

2. Streamline Military and Healthcare Spending

Cut military spending, withdraw from endless wars, reform healthcare, and reduce bureaucratic bloat. The U.S. should spend money on building bridges and roads, and on technological infrastructure, rather than remotely controlling the Middle East or filling the pockets of insurance giants.

3. Upgrade Trump Gold Card to Blue-Collar Work Visa, Restore the Glory of Labor

Upgrade the Trump Gold Card to a blue-collar worker green card, issue work visas to undocumented immigrants willing to work, fill vacancies in blue-collar positions, and break the bubble of elitism and white-collar dominance in the labor market.

4. Tax the Rich, Reduce Burden on the Middle Class

Break the structural issue of the top 10% holding 70% of America's wealth, impose a technology empire tax on super-rich individuals, and alleviate the tax burden on families earning a million dollars a year. Do not punish the wealthy, but require those most capable to bear more social responsibility.

These four points could make Trump historically significant, but he is going in the opposite direction, causing global financial chaos. The Americans cannot prevent domestic GDP from nominally surpassing that of the U.S.; quality productivity + 1.4 billion domestic demand + a policy of non-interference and friendship with other countries is enough for the domestic GDP to nominally surpass that of the U.S., but to catch up with social welfare and living standards would require more than double the GDP, which is basically impossible to achieve.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

How did Trump suddenly realize he has to bow to tariffs on China and to the Federal Reserve? ❓

I originally wanted to see Trump battle the Federal Reserve, with the dollar assets plummeting. Suddenly, Trump understood that the Federal Reserve is his boss. When will Trump realize that canceling all sanctions, reducing healthcare and military spending, and lowering tariffs can stimulate the return of manufacturing? Changing Trump's gold card to a blue-collar work visa is essential to improve the labor structure and expand infrastructure construction.

The close tie between finance and his words is highly unpleasant; Musk also understood that Besant is collaborating with Trump to short the U.S. 😂

A chaotic America~

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

From the perspective of the US dollar index, whether to cut interest rates or not has little significance, as the US dollar index has weakened for three consecutive months～

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

Trump is currently fully committed to shifting the tariff conflict against Powell and has already launched an attack on Powell. Knowing that Trump is a highly uncertain person, I thought before he took office that he would bring a high degree of uncertainty to the liquidity-concentrated U.S. stock market, and now it seems that Trump's actions have far exceeded his first term. To say he is playing chess, he started paying attention to the U.S. trade deficit in the 1980s; to say he is shrewd, he wants to bring the U.S. back to the industrial power of the late 18th and early 19th centuries by offsetting personal income taxes with tariffs, which is somewhat contrary to the natural order. In contrast, Wall Street institutions have warned of the long-term decline of the dollar's dominant position, particularly BlackRock's CEO believes that the dollar cannot remain the dominant reserve currency for long, regardless of whether the U.S. and China reconcile. U.S.-based capital and companies will face significant business adjustments. Trump's cabinet, including the Treasury Secretary and senior advisors, presents two different lines of thought. Bessen warned that Trump's dismissal of Powell would trigger market turmoil, with the core issue being the independence of the Federal Reserve extending the strong triangular structure of the dollar, U.S. debt, and reserve currency.

I believe that the internal contradictions within the U.S. far exceed external contradictions. Recently, Trump initiated a crackdown on Wall Street and Silicon Valley, and now he wants to reform the Federal Reserve. Currently, any financial market is political economy; Trump's influence on the market is becoming increasingly frequent. It is no longer about engaging in politics within the financial market but rather politicizing the financial market itself.

The good news is that Powell has for the first time supported accelerating the legislation and issuance of stablecoins. After stablecoin legislation, the cryptocurrency space should see more giants and institutions enter, and the application of cryptocurrencies will receive a tremendous expansion. Many coins should soon experience a revival, perhaps within two to three weeks, or maybe it will start as early as next week.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

Trump once again calls on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If Trump really intends to undermine or substantially interfere with the Federal Reserve, the dollar will rapidly depreciate, and it is very likely to become the biggest black swan in the global financial market ahead. Digital currency will usher in unprecedented prosperity, but the likelihood of such an event occurring is extremely low.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb

From a macro perspective, cryptocurrency has entered another round of extremely strong fundamentals. The narrative comes from the demand for compliant stablecoins from sovereign nations, the demand for RWA from traditional funds, and the policy uncertainty brought by Trump, which has considerably accelerated the depreciation of the dollar's credit, leading to a systemic re-evaluation of the dollar's credit.

These fundamentals create opportunities for a new crypto bull market: dollar -> stablecoin -> DeFi -> payments -> RWA -> basic financial infrastructure of sovereign nations. In fact, whether interest rates are cut or not is not crucial; the dollar index has already weakened, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is no longer the decisive variable for the strength of the dollar. 2021 was a liquidity bull market, while 2025 will be a monetary structure bull market.

Currently, the fundamentals are very similar to those before the last bull market exploded, and I even personally believe that Trump's instability and the upcoming macro narrative are more solid than during the last bull market.

$BTC $ETH $BNB #btc #eth #bnb