芮米

#美国加密立法

Overall, the current cryptocurrency legislative process in the United States is considered "bullish" for the market:
1. Regulatory Clarity: The SEC is developing clear regulatory rules for crypto assets, which helps to legitimize the crypto market and attract more institutional investors.
2. Stablecoin Legislation (STABLE Act and GENIUS Act): Stablecoins will receive a federal-level regulatory framework, which will enhance the security and transparency of stablecoins and further promote their adoption.
3. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BITCOIN Act of 2025): The United States plans to designate Bitcoin as a national reserve asset, which will enhance Bitcoin's legitimacy and value.
4. Support from the White House: President Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, demonstrating the U.S. government's emphasis on digital assets.

Although there are still political controversies and regulatory pressures, the overall direction of these policies is bullish.

$BTC
Trend Observation:
1. Long-term Trend:
• On the monthly chart, Bitcoin maintains a strong upward trend and continues to stay above the moving average (EMA).
• The MACD indicator shows a bullish arrangement, with volume steadily increasing, indicating that the bulls are still in control.
2. Mid-term Trend:
• The weekly and daily charts show that upward momentum is gradually strengthening, but there is some risk of a pullback.
• The ADX in the DMI indicator remains on the rise, indicating that trend strength has not faded.
• The Stochastic RSI is hovering in the high zone, showing signs of overbought conditions, and short-term pullback risks should be noted.
3. Short-term Trend:
• On the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, prices are approaching the upper pressure zone ($110,000), facing some oscillation pressure.
• The MACD shows signs of a high divergence, suggesting a potential pullback correction in the short term.

#美国加征关税
The recent increase in tariffs by the United States has had various impacts on the cryptocurrency market. Here is a detailed analysis:

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📉 Short-term Impact: Market Volatility and Rise in Risk Aversion
1. Price Volatility: In April 2025, after the Trump administration announced tariffs on countries such as China, market risk aversion increased, leading to a temporary decline in Bitcoin prices. For example, on April 3rd, Bitcoin prices dropped by 5.4%, and Ethereum experienced a similar decline.
2. Adjustment of Risk Assets: Following the announcement of the tariff news, investors shifted from high-risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) to safe-haven assets (such as the US dollar and US Treasury bonds), putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market in the short term.

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🔧 Mid-term Impact: Rising Mining Costs and Supply Chain Challenges
1. Increased Mining Equipment Costs: Most cryptocurrency mining machines come from China. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports has raised the prices of mining machines, increasing operational costs for miners, which may lead some miners to exit the market, affecting Bitcoin network hashrate and security.
2. Supply Chain Disruption: Tariff policies may lead to disruptions in the global supply chain, impacting the supply of cryptocurrency-related hardware and further increasing market uncertainty.

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🪙 Long-term Impact: Enhanced Appeal of Cryptocurrencies as Safe-Haven Assets
1. Hedging Against Inflation and Currency Depreciation: Tariffs may trigger inflationary pressures, weakening the purchasing power of fiat currencies and increasing the appeal of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.
2. De-dollarization Trend: Some countries may seek to reduce their reliance on the US dollar in response to US trade policies, opting to use stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) for cross-border transactions, promoting the international use of cryptocurrencies.

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📊 Investor Recommendations
• In the short term: Due to increased market volatility, investors are advised to operate cautiously, avoid excessive leverage, and pay attention to changes in market sentiment.
• In the medium to long term: Considering the hedging characteristics of cryptocurrencies under inflation and monetary policy uncertainty, holding mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin for the long term may be an effective asset allocation strategy.

#CPI数据来袭
The Jin10 data has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the United States for April 2025 on May 13, 2025, as follows: 
• CPI Year-on-Year (Not Seasonally Adjusted): 2.4%, unchanged from the previous value, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.5%.
• Core CPI Year-on-Year (Not Seasonally Adjusted): 2.8%, consistent with the previous value, in line with market expectations.
• CPI Month-on-Month (Seasonally Adjusted): 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.
• Core CPI Month-on-Month (Seasonally Adjusted): 0.2%, consistent with expectations.

Interpretation:
1. Inflation pressure eases:
• Both the year-on-year and month-on-month CPI are lower than market expectations, indicating a relief in inflation pressure.
• This suggests that the Federal Reserve faces reduced pressure for further interest rate hikes in the short term, and may even strengthen the market's expectations for rate cuts.
2. Market impact:
• Positive for risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies and stocks): A cooling inflation usually indicates a shift towards looser monetary policy, lowering the cost of capital, which benefits the price increase of risk assets.
• Negative for the U.S. dollar index: Increased expectations for rate cuts weaken the dollar, leading to a rise in the prices of dollar-denominated assets.

Overall judgment:
• Overall, this CPI data is favorable for the cryptocurrency and stock markets, particularly Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) may have upward momentum in the short term.
• Market reactions can be monitored, especially for long entry opportunities in cryptocurrencies, but close attention should still be paid to further policy statements from Federal Reserve officials.

$BTC
📉 Daily Trend Overview
• Daily Low: $100,700, mainly influenced by investors taking profits ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.
• Daily High: $104,635, after which the price retreated and stabilized above $103,000.  

📊 Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
• Technical Analysis: BTC has short-term support at $100,790 after breaking through $100,000, with resistance at $105,720.
• Market Sentiment: Institutional investors continue to accumulate BTC, such as MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 13,390 BTC, worth approximately $1.34 billion.  

🧭 Future Outlook
• Macroeconomic Factors: The U.S. April CPI year-over-year growth rate is 2.3%, lower than expected, which may ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, providing support for BTC prices.
• Potential Target Price: If it breaks through $105,720, the next target could be $109,000, potentially challenging historical highs.

Overall, despite short-term volatility in BTC prices, the long-term trend remains bullish. Investors are advised to pay attention to upcoming economic data and policy trends to adjust their investment strategies.

#加密圆桌会议要点
✅ Positive Impact (Bullish):
• Policy Clarification: The SEC's shift to 'establish clear rules' instead of 'enforcement actions' eliminates market uncertainty, attracting more institutional funds.
• Traditional Finance Entry: Traditional financial giants (such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Nasdaq) plan to tokenize traditional assets, with blockchain applications expected to expand.
• Tokenization Trend: Tokenized finance is being integrated into the formal financial system, and the application of smart contracts will enhance market efficiency.

⚠️ Potential Risks (Slightly Bearish):
• Increased Regulatory Requirements: Although the policy is clear, DeFi and stablecoin projects must comply with new regulatory standards, raising compliance costs.
• Market Volatility Risk: Some high-risk projects may face regulatory pressure in the short term, and investors should be cautious.

Summary:

The recent SEC crypto roundtable is overall bullish for the market, eliminating regulatory uncertainty and paving the way for institutional funds to enter. In the short term, it may lead to a rebound in mainstream crypto assets (such as BTC, ETH), but attention should be paid to regulatory pressure on high-risk projects (such as unregistered DeFi platforms).

5/12 Afternoon ETHUSDT Long Position Short-term Entry Suggestion:
Entry is time-limited, strict stop-loss is crucial.

1. Trend and Price Performance:
• ETH is in an upward trend, with the price breaking through $2540, reaching a high of $2624, and consolidating near the high.
• The main support level is between $2540 and $2560. If this range is effectively supported, the upward trend is expected to continue.

2. Indicator Analysis:
• DMI (Directional Movement Index): DI+ (green line) is significantly above DI- (red line), indicating bullish momentum dominance and strong buying pressure in the market.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The fast line (blue) is above the zero line and far from the slow line (orange), indicating strong upward momentum but showing slight signs of reduction, cautioning against pullback risks.
• Stochastic RSI: High-level stagnation, in the overbought zone, may face short-term correction pressure.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume): Volume has increased, rising with the price, indicating an influx of bullish capital.

3. Key Resistance and Support:
• Resistance Levels: $2624 (short-term high), $2650 (psychological resistance).
• Support Levels: $2540 (strong support), $2500 (psychological support).

ETHUSDT Entry Position Suggestion:
1. Long Entry:
• Entry Range: $2540 - $2560
• Stop-Loss Level: Below $2520 (to avoid being shaken out by short-term fluctuations)
• First Target Price: $2620 (short-term resistance)
• Second Target Price: $2650 (strong resistance area)

2. If the price breaks through $2624:
• Long on pullback after the breakout: Between $2624 - $2630
• Stop-Loss Level: Below $2600
• Target Price: $2680 - $2700

3. If the price falls below $2540:
• Wait and see or look for lower support: Consider going long again in the $2500 support area.

Risk Control:
• Keep position control within 10-15% of total capital.
• If the price falls below $2520, consider short-term stop-loss and wait.

Impact of US-China Trade War Easing on BTC:

Overall Impact: Bullish for BTC
• BTC price reached $104,394 on May 12, 2025, showing a strong upward trend.
• The easing of the US-China trade war has boosted global investment confidence, leading to an influx of capital into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• Market risk appetite has increased, with investors choosing to allocate funds to high-yield assets like BTC as demand for safe-haven assets declines.

Bullish Factors:
1. Increased Risk Appetite: The easing of the trade war has enhanced global market confidence, leading investors to increase their allocation to risk assets (including BTC).
2. Institutional Capital Inflow: With market stability, institutional investors are more willing to invest in the cryptocurrency market.
3. Weakened Dollar Pressure: Despite a stronger dollar, demand for risk assets remains, providing support for BTC.
4. ETF Capital Inflow: Increased demand for BTC ETFs brings in new funds.

Risks to Watch:
• If the trade war heats up again, market confidence will be affected, and BTC may once again become a safe-haven asset, but volatility will increase.
• If the dollar continues to strengthen, BTC may face downward pressure in the short term.

Summary:

Currently, the easing of the US-China trade war is bullish for BTC, especially with the inflow of risk capital into risk assets.

📈 Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:
• $103,818: 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), providing strong support.
• $103,080: Lower edge of the previous consolidation range, a drop below this level may trigger a deeper correction.

Key Resistance Levels:
• $106,750: Short-term technical resistance level, needs to break through to continue the upward trend.
• $107,300: Psychological barrier, breaking through may challenge historical highs.

$BTC

Woke up and wondered where my position went, turns out it was closed for profit🤣

On 5/12, the easing of the trade war usually has the following effects on the cryptocurrency market:

1. Increased risk appetite:
• The easing of the trade war helps stabilize the global economy, increasing investors' risk appetite, and capital may flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
2. Reduced demand for safe-haven assets:
• When market risks decrease, investors' demand for safe-haven assets (such as gold and stablecoins) declines, which may affect the role of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as safe-haven assets.
3. Improved fiat currency stability:
• The easing of the trade war will stabilize the exchange rates of major fiat currencies, reducing the risk of fiat currency depreciation, which may suppress the demand for cryptocurrencies as a hedge against fiat depreciation.
4. Fluctuations in trading volume:
• In the context of increased risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market, there may be a short-term increase in trading volume, but if market confidence strengthens and the attractiveness of traditional assets increases, cryptocurrency trading volume may also decrease.
5. Impact of regulatory policies:
• The easing of the trade war may promote cooperation among countries, including the coordination of cryptocurrency regulation, which may bring new rules or relaxed policies.

#贸易战缓和

Evening ETHUSDT Long Position Short-Term Entry Suggestion on 5/11:

Currently, ETHUSDT is fluctuating in the range of 2520-2525, with strong short-term support.

The midday AI strategy from Rui Mi has been stopped out and has pulled back down; although there was a small loss, it is recommended to enter with a light position in uncertain market conditions.

Suggestions:
• Long position entry area: 2500-2510 USDT (waiting for pullback to confirm support)
• Stop-loss setting: 2475 USDT (to control risk)
• First target: 2540 USDT (short-term profit)
• Second target: 2580 USDT (swing target)

If the price quickly retraces to 2500-2510 and rebounds, confirming that support is effective, entry can be considered.

Volume recovery confirms support:
1. Significant increase in volume:
• After the price touches the support area (such as 2500-2510), a large volume occurs, indicating that the bulls are actively entering.
2. K-line combination:
• A long lower shadow or hammer candlestick appears, indicating strong buying power below.
• Consecutive green K-lines or rebounds show that bullish strength is gradually increasing.
3. Technical indicator confirmation:
• RSI rebounds from the oversold area and breaks above the 30 or 40 level.
• MACD indicator shows bottom divergence, with the fast line crossing above the slow line (golden cross).

Operational strategy:
• If the support area is confirmed to be effective, consider entering a long position.
• Set the stop-loss below the support area, such as 2480.
• First target: 2550-2580.
• After entering, pay attention to the continuous increase in volume to confirm upward momentum.

Reasonable Risk-Reward Ratio Suggestion:

In cryptocurrency trading, especially with high leverage (like the 125x you often use), the risk-reward ratio should be designed carefully:
1. Standard risk-reward ratio: 1:2 or 1:3
• Risk: Each trade should bear a maximum of 1 unit of risk (e.g., a loss of 1 USDT per trade).
• Reward: Each trade should aim to earn at least 2-3 times the risk (e.g., earning 2-3 USDT).
2. Actual application in ETH trading:
• Entry: 2500 USDT
• Stop-loss: 2480 USDT (risk of 20 points)
• First take-profit target: 2540 USDT (reward of 40 points, 1:2)
• Second take-profit target: 2580 USDT (reward of 80 points, 1:4)
3. Dynamically adjusting take-profit:
• When the price reaches the first target of 2540, move the stop-loss up to the entry price of 2500 to break even.
• If the price continues to rise, gradually increase the take-profit to ensure profits are locked in.

$ETH
#WhenWillAltcoinSeasonArrive

Is it altcoin season?
Key indicators and market trends that support this view:

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🔍 Key Market Indicators
1. Bitcoin Market Dominance (BTC Dominance) decreases
• Bitcoin market dominance has dropped from 65% to 63.89%, indicating funds are shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins.
2. ETH/BTC ratio rebounds
• The ETH/BTC ratio has rebounded from 0.01867 to 0.0246, indicating that Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin is improving.
3. Altcoin Season Index rises
• The Altcoin Season Index has risen from 23 to 36, approaching the threshold for entering altcoin season (above 75).

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📈 Market Dynamics
• Ethereum (ETH): Price increased by 13%, outperforming Bitcoin.
• Other major altcoins: Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) also saw increases of over 6%.

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✅ Conclusion

Combining the above indicators and market dynamics shows that altcoin season is forming. Investors may consider focusing on outperforming altcoins such as ETH, SOL, ADA, and closely monitor market changes to adjust investment strategies.

#ETH突破2500
5/11 Afternoon ETHUSDT Long Position Entry Suggestion:

Patiently wait for the entry position, do not chase high losses; entering after a pullback to support levels is safer. With a small amount of capital, gradually give yourself an extra salary! Do not hold onto losing positions; if the direction is wrong, cut losses.

Whether to adjust the target or move the stop-loss out depends on personal preference. Of course, moving the stop-loss to lock in profits is important. Really, do not say in hindsight that you wish you had sold earlier or that you knew the pattern; there is no regret medicine in investing.

Currently, ETH is fluctuating between $2550 and $2600. The MACD and DMI indicate a bullish momentum in the short term, but the RSI shows an overbought area, which may lead to a brief pullback.

Suggestions:
1. Support range: $2500-$2520 (short-term support); if it breaks below, pay attention to $2450.
2. Resistance range: $2600-$2650.
3. Pullback target: In the short term, it may pull back to $2520-$2500; observe if it can hold that range.
4. Operational strategy:
• If the price pulls back to the $2500-$2520 range and shows a rebound signal (such as a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing), consider entering a long position.
• If it cannot hold $2500, observe the support effect at $2450.
• If the price breaks $2600 and holds effectively, consider increasing the long position in the direction of the trend.

If ETH pulls back to $2,500 and provides good support, consider the following entry strategy:

Entry strategy:
• Entry point: $2,500 to $2,510 range (enter after confirming support).
• Stop-loss setting: $2,480 (to avoid false breakdown risks).
• First target price: $2,580 (short-term rebound target).
• Second target price: $2,620 (strong resistance level).
• Progressive stop-loss strategy:
• After the price reaches $2,580, adjust the stop-loss to $2,520 to lock in profits.
• After the price reaches $2,620, adjust the stop-loss to $2,580 to protect more profit.

#Strategy Trading

Morning ETHUSDT Long Position Short-term Entry Suggestion on 5/11:

Currently, ETH is facing significant pressure around $2,600, and a short-term pullback may test the following support zones:
1. $2,550 - $2,560: Previous short-term support, possibly initial support.
2. $2,520 - $2,530: This is another support zone in the short-term fluctuations.
3. $2,470 - $2,480: If it breaks below the upper support, it may test this stronger support.

Please closely observe the price performance in these zones, particularly for reversal patterns (such as long lower wicks, pin bar rebounds, or bottoming tails), and adjust your take profit.

ETH Opening Position Suggestions:
• Entry Zone: $2,340 - $2,350
• If the price pulls back and shows a reversal pattern (such as hammer, bullish engulfing, morning star), consider entering.
• Break-even Stop Loss: Below $2,320
• Ensure risk is manageable to avoid being swept out by short-term fluctuations.
• First Take Profit Target: $2,400 - $2,420
• When the price reaches this zone, consider taking partial profits.
• Second Take Profit Target: $2,450 - $2,480
• If momentum continues, you can hold on for larger profits in this zone.
• Entry Signal:
• A reversal candle appears (such as hammer, bullish engulfing, morning star).
• Volume increases, indicating stronger buying momentum.
• Stochastic RSI or MACD shows a bullish crossover.
• Risk Management:
• When the price reaches the first target ($2,400 - $2,420), you can move the stop loss up to the entry price (break-even stop loss).
• Consider setting a trailing stop (e.g., exit on a 2%-3% pullback from the high).

5/11 Late Night ETHUSDT Long Position Short-term Entry Suggestion:

Light position small profit, AI strategy suggestion

Investing involves both gains and losses, stop loss when necessary, do not hold positions

Currently, ETH has risen to $2,455, and there are signs of some pullback at high levels:

Technical Analysis:
1. 5-Minute Chart:
• Stochastic RSI is in the overbought area, and the indicator shows slight downward signs, indicating a possible small pullback in the short term.
• Although the MACD indicator is in the positive area, the momentum bars are gradually shortening, indicating that upward momentum is weakening.
2. 15-Minute Chart:
• The price has entered the overbought area, and Stochastic RSI has started to turn downward, which may be a signal for short-term adjustment.
• The DMI indicator shows that the bulls are still strong, but there are signs of increasing bearish strength.
3. 30-Minute and 1-Hour Charts:
• Still in an upward trend, but Stochastic RSI is gradually entering the overbought area, and caution is needed for pullback risk.
• Main resistance level is in the range of 2,470 - 2,490.

Suggestion:
• For short-term holders:
• Consider gradually reducing positions in the range of 2,455 - 2,470 and moving the take profit to around 2,440 to lock in profits.
• Stop loss is suggested to be set below 2,420 to avoid expanding losses on pullbacks.
• For short-term new entrants:
• If the price pulls back to the range of 2,430 - 2,440 without clear reversal signals, consider entering with a small position.
• Strict stop loss set at 2,410, and watch if Stochastic RSI enters the oversold area and shows reversal.
• For medium to long-term traders:
• If the price stabilizes above 2,450 and MACD remains bullish on the 30-minute or 1-hour chart, consider continuing to hold long positions.

5/10 Late Night ETHUSDT Long Position Short-term Entry Suggestion:

Entry Strategy:
• Entry Point: 2290 - 2300 USD (when the price finds support in this range)
• Stop Loss Point: 2270 USD (to avoid false drops, risk control)
• First Take Profit Target: 2340 USD (short-term target, can move stop loss after profit)
• Second Take Profit Target: 2380 USD (medium-term target, gradually advancing profit)

Move Stop Loss Strategy:
• When the price reaches 2340 USD, move stop loss up to entry price 2300 USD to lock in no loss.
• When the price approaches 2380 USD, adjust take profit to 2350 USD to secure profits.

Risk Control:
• If the price falls below 2270, strictly stop loss and exit to avoid deep losses.

Technical Pattern Analysis
On the 1-hour chart, ETH/USDT is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, which usually indicates that a price breakout is imminent. If the price breaks upward, it may trigger a new round of rising momentum; conversely, if it breaks downward, caution for correction risk is needed.

Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Support Level: Short-term support is around 2,250 USD, an area that has provided price support multiple times.
• Resistance Level: Upper resistance is around 2,300 USD; if the price breaks through this area, it may further challenge 2,350 USD.