1. Overall trend:
• Long-term upward trend: From the overall movement, BTC's long-term trend remains within an upward channel, currently the price is above the ALMA 60 and ALMA 120 moving averages, indicating that bulls are still in control of the market.
• Moving averages arrangement: 60-day ALMA (faster moving average) is above the 120-day ALMA (slower moving average), indicating a bullish advantage, and the moving averages show a divergence, further strengthening the upward trend.
• Trend strength: Current bullish strength is significant, with highs and lows gradually rising, and the price remains within a stable upward channel.
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2. Key support and resistance:
1. Short-term support: 103,200 USDT (current short-term upward trend support).
2. Main support: 102,000 USDT (bottom support of the long-term upward trend, breaching this level poses significant pullback risk).
3. Short-term pressure: 104,000 USDT (recent high point resistance area).
4. Main resistance: 105,500 USDT (medium to long-term strong resistance area, a breakout will confirm greater upward potential).
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3. Technical indicator analysis:
• DMI (Directional Movement Index):
• +DI (bullish strength) is above -DI (bearish strength), and the ADX continues to rise, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening.
• If the ADX exceeds 25 and continues to rise, it will indicate a further increase in trend strength.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
• Fast line (white line) and slow line (red line) continue to rise above the zero axis, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market.
• MACD histogram is gradually expanding, showing an increase in buying momentum.
• Stochastic RSI (Relative Strength Index):
• Currently in the overbought zone (80-100), indicating a risk of a pullback in the short term.
• If a death cross (blue line crosses below the red line) occurs, it will further confirm a short-term pullback signal.
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4. Volume and trading volume:
• Recent trading volume has significantly increased, especially when the price breaks through the resistance area, indicating active capital inflow.
• If trading volume remains high, it will further confirm the bullish trend.
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5. Technical patterns:
• Rising wedge pattern: Current price is within the rising wedge; this pattern is usually bullish, indicating that a breakout to the upside is expected in the short term.
• Possible false breakout: If the price fails to effectively break through 104,000 USDT, a false breakout may occur, and caution is advised.
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6. Future trend prediction:
1. Short-term bullish: If the price can break through and stabilize above 104,000 USDT, it may further challenge 105,500 USDT.
2. Short-term pullback risk: If the Stochastic RSI enters the overbought zone and a death cross occurs, the price may pull back to the 103,200 USDT support.
3. Medium to long-term stable: As long as the price remains above 102,000 USDT, the long-term upward trend will remain unchanged.
4. Breakout resistance confirmation: If successfully breaking through 105,500 USDT, it will further confirm the long-term bull market trend.
