To achieve stable profits in event contract trading, the following conditions must be met:
### 1. Minimum Winning Rate Requirement When the winning rate \( p > \frac{5}{9} \approx 55.56\% \), the expected profit is positive. The calculation is as follows: \[ \text{Expected Profit} = f \cdot (1.8p - 1) > 0 \implies p > \frac{1}{1.8} \approx 55.56\%. \]
### 2. Optimal Position Ratio (Kelly Formula) According to the Kelly formula, the optimal position ratio \( f \) is: \[ f = \frac{1.8p - 1}{0.8}. \] This formula ensures the maximization of capital growth rate in long-term trading, avoiding bankruptcy risk.
### Example Calculation - **When the winning rate \( p = 60\% \)**: \[ f = \frac{1.8 \times 0.6 - 1}{0.8} = 10\%. \] - **When the winning rate \( p = 70\% \)**: \[ f = \frac{1.8 \times 0.7 - 1}{0.8} = 32.5\%. \]
### Conclusion - **Entry Condition**: The winning rate must exceed **55.56%**. - **Position Strategy**: The position ratio for each investment is \(\frac{1.8p - 1}{0.8}\), dynamically adjusted based on the actual winning rate.
By strictly following this strategy, stable profits can be ensured in long-term trading while effectively managing risks.
$BTC bnb is stronger than Bitcoin, the weekly MACD for Bitcoin has also diverged at the top, and the monthly chart is strong. This month may rise first and then fall.
Bitcoin daily MACD top divergence, upward momentum weakened, daily Ichimoku theory divergence combined with double top pattern, upward structure broken, short selling volume increased, long buying volume decreased, avoid going long, likely to fall further.
How can the borrowing profit of bnb be forty percent? It would lead to bankruptcy if borrowed. Bitcoin and ETH are only a little over one percent, U is also twelve percent, and Trump coin is twenty percent.