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要在事件合约交易中实现稳定盈利，需满足以下条件： ### 1. 最低胜率要求 当胜率 \( p > \frac{5}{9} \approx 55.56\% \) 时，期望收益为正。计算如下： \[ \text{期望收益} = f \cdot (1.8p - 1) > 0 \implies p > \frac{1}{1.8} \approx 55.56\%. \] ### 2. 最佳仓位比例（凯利公式） 根据凯利公式，最佳仓位比例 \( f \) 为： \[ f = \frac{1.8p - 1}{0.8}. \] 此公式确保在长期交易中最大化资金增长率，避免破产风险。 ### 示例计算 - **当胜率 \( p = 60\% \)**： \[ f = \frac{1.8 \times 0.6 - 1}{0.8} = 10\%. \] - **当胜率 \( p = 70\% \)**： \[ f = \frac{1.8 \times 0.7 - 1}{0.8} = 32.5\%. \] ### 结论 - **进入条件**：胜率需超过 **55.56%**。 - **仓位策略**：每次投入仓位比例为 \(\frac{1.8p - 1}{0.8}\)，根据实际胜率动态调整。 通过严格遵循此策略，可确保在长期交易中稳定盈利，同时有效管理风险。
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$BNB 卖飞了
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$BTC 比特币跌的太慢了，可能要四五周才到关键位置
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注册了能用吗
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#比特币国家战略储备 比特币83000
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