风雨行军团

BTC has now reached a critical moment of battle. The recent surge was quite dangerous, but fortunately, it has dropped in the last two hours. At this position, if another wave comes and breaks the 10-day moving average, I can only accept defeat on my short position. If it drops, I will continue to hold. After cutting losses and leaving, I have no immediate intention to buy back; at this position, I really dare not enter. I'll just wait and see if I can squat into a deep pit.
Today's Hong Kong stocks are doing okay. The market opened with a gap down and at one point fell below 2 points during the session, but eventually, the market gradually rebounded, with all three major indices not dropping more than 1 point. Gold stocks surged because U.S. President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, intensifying market risk aversion, leading to a rise in international gold prices. Tongguan Gold increased by over 10%. Gold has also risen nearly 2 points now. Cryptocurrency concept stocks are strong, as Hong Kong (stablecoin regulations) has become law, promoting the development of related fields in Hong Kong, and Bitcoin prices have risen. New Fire Technology Holdings (still under Li Lin, although the Huobi exchange was transferred to Sun Yuchen, this stock is quite hot now, having once been the top-ranked exchange) rose nearly 9%, and OK Blockchain Chain surged over 35% (Xu Mingxing's OK license). LianLian Digital increased by 62.67%, and its wholly-owned subsidiary DFX Labs Company Limited obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) on December 18, 2024. Compliance of exchanges does not necessarily attract players. Therefore, today it rose nearly 80 points, driven more by price speculation.

BTC continues to decline today, recording four consecutive bearish candles. Currently, the weekly level also shows one bearish engulfing two bullish candles. Although the drop isn't deep yet, it's like a frog in warm water; the presence of such a bearish trend is very frightening. Whether it's a small bull or a big bull, or a small bear or a big bear, the previous trends are all similar. The difference is just a matter of time; small bulls and small bears last for a short time with little fluctuation, while big bulls and big bears last longer with significant movement. If this wave of small bulls fizzles out and turns into a big bear, I’ll make a small profit.

BTC is currently in a three-day downward trend; it seemed like it was going to fall well, but upon closer inspection, it is still trapped. However, the trend is starting to favor the bears, and the moving averages have effectively broken below the 10-day moving average. If this were a battle, it would be equivalent to the bears defeating the bulls' vanguard. Now, we need to see if it can effectively break below the 20-day moving average, but at this position, it might hover a bit before breaking down. In any case, my short position remains open and unchanged. I can still collect a little bit of funding fees every 8 hours, which is better than paying fees.
The A-shares showed some improvement yesterday, but today, due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, the Trump administration appealed to restore increased tariffs. Today, the A-share market opened low and continued to decline, with all three major indices closing down. The Shanghai Composite Index reported 3347.49 points, down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index reported 10040.63 points, down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index reported 1993.19 points, down 0.96%, falling below the 2000-point mark. The market's trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, with a total turnover of 1.14 trillion yuan in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets (about 46.2 billion yuan less than yesterday), indicating a decline in capital participation before the holiday. Individual stock performance was severely differentiated, with over 4000 stocks declining and only about 1100 rising, with profit-making effects concentrated in defensive sectors.

I don't quite understand why, with similar vehicle configurations, the price of new energy vehicles is significantly higher than that of gasoline vehicles. Electric vehicles are cold in winter, unlike gasoline vehicles that can generate heat, and the probability of electric vehicles catching fire in accidents is relatively high, making their safety performance inferior to that of gasoline vehicles.
Specifically, compared to the same configuration gasoline vehicles, electric cars are 15%-20% more expensive. Although electric vehicles benefit from tax incentives, when calculated, they are still expensive. Gasoline vehicles have mature technology, intense market competition, and more transparent pricing. For example, joint venture gasoline vehicles around 200,000, like the Passat Pro and LaCrosse, have balanced configurations and stable end discounts.
If an electric vehicle installs a home charging station, charging will be much cheaper. However, considering the money spent on gasoline, if calculated as saving 5,000 yuan a year, it would be enough to cover 4-5 years of gasoline expenses.

A strong BTC is entering a correction phase, and it feels like it's going to drop. If tomorrow's weekly line continues to close positively, I will continue to hold my short positions. This wave of the bull market feels like it's about done. If that's the case, this little bull holding on doesn't seem so terrifying; it's more about my own psychological fear. Looking at the losses, it's actually not that bad. I've averaged down four times, and my cost is now around $93,000. This means BTC needs to drop to $93,000 to break even. Although I misread the direction, the outcome is much better than I expected. So I will continue to hold my short positions.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the highest weekly trading volume since 2025, with a total trading amount reaching $25 billion and a net inflow of $2.75 billion, marking the second-highest single-week net inflow for such products since their launch at the beginning of 2024. BlackRock's IBIT currently holds 3.3% of the global Bitcoin supply, with net assets exceeding $71 billion, approximately three times that of the second-ranked FidelityFBTC. During the same period, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $250 million, the highest level since early February, although trading volume experienced a slight decline.

There's not much to write about tonight, just filling up some word count. Today, U.S. stocks opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.12%, the Nasdaq down 1.59%, and the S&P 500 index down 1.24%. Major tech stocks fell broadly, with Nvidia, Amazon, Intel, TSMC, AMD, and META all down over 2%. Apple fell over 3%, with a market value evaporating by more than $100 billion. Trump threatened that if iPhones are not made in the U.S., a 25% tariff will be imposed on Apple.
After breaking historical highs, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is showing a trend of fluctuating upward movement. The price saw a slight pullback after breaking through a key psychological barrier, but overall remains at a high level. The current BTC price is fluctuating around $111,000, with a daily high of $111,880 and a low pullback to $110,828, maintaining above $111,000.

BTC broke its historical high today, reaching a peak of $111,880. This is a definite reversal bull market. I foolishly thought it was a bear market consolidation, and got caught. Fortunately, I am just a retail investor, so it doesn't have much impact, and I still love to write a bit. If I were not a small player but an influential figure, this wave would have dragged my siblings into a pit. I don't mind losing money myself, but if someone follows and loses, that is really not what I want; I wouldn't feel as relaxed as I do now. This wave, I plan to hold on during the bull market, with a stop-loss set at $120,000, betting that this wave is just a small bull reversal, not a big bull market. If it’s a big bull market, holding on won’t work. This is what they call risk education; to earn more money, you have to be prepared to lose more.