I don't quite understand why, with similar vehicle configurations, the price of new energy vehicles is significantly higher than that of gasoline vehicles. Electric vehicles are cold in winter, unlike gasoline vehicles that can generate heat, and the probability of electric vehicles catching fire in accidents is relatively high, making their safety performance inferior to that of gasoline vehicles.
Specifically, compared to the same configuration gasoline vehicles, electric cars are 15%-20% more expensive. Although electric vehicles benefit from tax incentives, when calculated, they are still expensive. Gasoline vehicles have mature technology, intense market competition, and more transparent pricing. For example, joint venture gasoline vehicles around 200,000, like the Passat Pro and LaCrosse, have balanced configurations and stable end discounts.
If an electric vehicle installs a home charging station, charging will be much cheaper. However, considering the money spent on gasoline, if calculated as saving 5,000 yuan a year, it would be enough to cover 4-5 years of gasoline expenses.
Overall, gasoline vehicles have lower maintenance costs. Electric vehicles lack engines and transmissions, only requiring checks on the three electric systems, with average annual costs around 600 yuan and a total cost of 3,000 yuan over five years. However, it is important to note battery life; the warranty period is generally 8 years/160,000 kilometers, and after five years, capacity may decline to 80%, with replacement costs reaching 30,000 to 60,000 yuan. Gasoline vehicles incur annual costs of about 1,200-1,600 yuan for oil changes and filters, totaling 6,000-8,000 yuan over five years. The probability of major repairs after five years is low, with costs around 10,000 yuan.
Overall, insurance for electric vehicles is 20%-50% more expensive than for gasoline vehicles. For example, the annual premium for a 200,000 model is about 7,000 yuan (for gasoline vehicles, it's about 4,500 yuan), mainly due to high battery maintenance costs.
The five-year value retention rate for gasoline vehicles is about 65% (for a 200,000 model, the residual value is 130,000), and it can still be sold for 50,000 after ten years. The five-year residual value for electric vehicles is only 35%-45% (for an 180,000 model, the residual value is 63,000-81,000), and after ten years, it may be worth less than 3,000 yuan.
In 2023, global electric vehicle sales (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) totaled approximately 14.2 million units. Among these, pure electric vehicle sales were about 10 million units, and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were about 4.2 million units.
In 2023, global sales of new gasoline vehicles totaled approximately 63.35 million units, with fuel vehicle sales accounting for about 78.6%.
In 2024, global total vehicle sales are expected to be about 90.6 million units, with new energy vehicle sales at 16.03 million units, meaning fuel vehicle sales are approximately 74.57 million units.
In the domestic market in 2023, cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 7.75 million units, with pure electric vehicle sales at approximately 5.365 million units and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales at approximately 1.518 million units.
In 2023, gasoline vehicle sales reached 13.95 million units.
In 2024, sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 12.888 million units, accounting for 70.7% of global sales.
In 2024, the sales of fuel vehicles in China are expected to be about 13 million units, accounting for 52% of total sales.
From the data above, it is clear that the global market is still primarily dominated by gasoline vehicles. Electric vehicles are only selling well domestically, which should be attributed to tax subsidies and local fiscal support. The government may want to cultivate the electric vehicle sector through this method and crush the gasoline vehicle market.
Currently, it seems that the domestic electric vehicle sector is rising, while gasoline vehicles are being pushed down, with a roughly equal share of around 50%. However, this also leads to significant competition within the domestic electric vehicle industry, where leading electric vehicle companies are trying to crush their competitors through price wars. In this war without gunpowder, apart from the leading companies making profits, their profit margins are also declining, leaving the rest with losses.
In 2024, BYD, which has consecutively topped the global new energy vehicle market in sales, achieved cumulative global sales of 4.2721 million new energy vehicles and realized operating income of 777.102 billion yuan, with a net profit of 40.254 billion yuan.
As the world's largest car manufacturer in terms of sales in 2024, Toyota has an annual sales volume of 10.8 million vehicles, maintaining its position as the global sales champion for five consecutive years. Among them, high-end models like Lexus perform strongly, but their penetration rate in the new energy vehicle sector is relatively low. The operating income in 2024 is 2.2 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 258.6 billion yuan, indicating strong profitability.
It seems that China's electric vehicle industry has a long way to go to sweep the globe. The domestic electric vehicle industry needs further competition. Xiaomi is also a major player in the smartphone sector; let's see how this time the major player in the electric vehicle industry fares. Among them, Tesla is also a major player, as Musk posted on social media platform X that he is back to working 'seven days a week, 24 hours a day,' or sleeping in meeting rooms, server rooms, and factory rooms. Tesla's stock price surged nearly 7%, with a market value increase of $75.9 billion overnight (approximately 546.1 billion yuan).
Trump praised the positive progress in U.S.-EU trade negotiations and has decided to postpone imposing high tariffs on the EU. Following this news, the U.S. stock market closed last night with the Dow Jones up 740 points (an increase of 1.78%), the Nasdaq up 2.47%, and the S&P 500 index up 2.05%.
Trump can announce tax increases the day after opening a short position on the U.S. stock market, then go long, and then announce tax cuts. Playing back and forth like this could lead to great wealth.