奇飞

7.20大饼午间策略分析$BTC

周末市场延续此前的窄幅震荡格局，整体表现平稳。从日线级别来看，各项技术指标均释放出回调信号，因此日内操作策略宜以反弹后看回调为主。预计市场仍将维持小区间震荡走势。操作策略可保持高抛低吸的节奏

日线级别需重点关注上方119000及118500区间的短线压力位，下方支撑区域则看向117000-116000区间。

Ethereum has seen a full 1000 cycles; who wouldn't be confused? July is halfway through, and if you still can't find direction, don't panic.
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Litecoin bull run has started! Current price $112 (¥800) skyrocketed 10% to enter the gains leaderboard🔥 24-hour trading volume surged to 740 million, go all in with your eyes closed! $LTC

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The market never shows mercy to the weak, but always opens its doors to the brave. Rather than being trapped in a deadlock, it's better to sever one's own wrist to survive and switch to a new battlefield.

Morning Analysis on 7.20 $BTC

The overall trend remains in a震荡下行 pattern. Prices retreated to around 117,200 in the early hours. In the short term, the market lacks significant trading volume, making effective breakthroughs in the current situation unlikely.

Four-Hour Level Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: The three lines are almost parallel and diverging, indicating a relative balance of power between bulls and bears, with the market in a critical transition period for direction selection.
MACD: The fast line is gradually approaching the zero axis, showing a significant weakening of upward momentum.
Price Pattern: The price is running between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, presenting a small K-line adjustment pattern of fragmented ups and downs, suggesting a tendency for further testing of the support at the lower Bollinger Band.
Comprehensive Conclusion and Operation Strategy:

No adjustment is needed for the morning operation strategy, continue to adhere to **mainly short positions, with rebounds as supplementary** strategies, acting in accordance with the trend.

Specific Operation Suggestions:
Bitcoin (BTC):
Short Selling Range: 118,200 - 118,800
Short-Term Target: 117,500 - 116,000
Long-Term Target: Maintain the view to 108,000 unchanged
Ethereum (ETH):
Short Selling Range: 3,600 - 3,635
Target Range: 3,520 - 3,450
$ETH

XTZ is on fire! Top three in daily gain leaderboard 🔥 A surge of 22% is just the beginning, go in fully invested and wait for it to double! 🚀$XTZ

Having someone to guide you is always better than exploring on your own! This week, we will publicly share several exciting layouts!

"Investing is like planting a tree; those who pull it up every day to check the roots will ultimately only harvest a basket of soil." Market fluctuations are not the real risk; the permanent loss of principal is.

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Evening Analysis on July 19, $BTC

The midday market has limited fluctuations, with the current price around 118200, showing narrow consolidation. Both bulls and bears are temporarily in a state of equilibrium, with neither side gaining a significant advantage.

Observing the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands show a 'converging parallel' pattern—the distance between the upper, middle, and lower bands is gradually narrowing, and the trend is tending to be parallel. This pattern typically indicates that short-term market volatility will decrease, and there is a high probability that the market will enter a relatively stable consolidation phase.

Trading Strategy:
BTC: Consider placing short positions in the range of 118500-119300, targeting the area of 117500-116800.
ETH: Consider placing short positions in the range of 3580-3620, targeting the area of 3520-3480.
$ETH

July has already passed its halfway point, and the fluctuations in the market have indeed put a lot of pressure on everyone. Although the market conditions are not ideal, please believe that as long as we persist in the market and patiently wait, the moment for the market to warm up will eventually come!

Now, Qifei has launched a free margin support plan. To ensure service quality, only 8 slots are available this time. I will provide one-on-one real-time guidance throughout the process, working diligently and facing the market together with everyone with the most sincere attitude, without any tricks!

The FXS rocket has taken off! A 76% surge in 7 days, doubling in 3 months and more! The momentum is super crazy, just go for it! $FXS

7.19 Midday Thought Analysis $BTC $ETH

Investment opportunities and challenges coexist in the cryptocurrency circle, requiring wisdom, patience, and a strong mindset. Please remember that contract trading is more like a marathon than a sprint. Only by maintaining rationality and continuous learning can one achieve long-term survival and ultimately succeed in the cryptocurrency market.

**Midnight and Early Morning Market Review:**
The bearish forces in the market continued the downward trend from the evening and were strongly consolidated. Bitcoin faced pressure and fell back after reaching the 119250 level, with the bears exerting force again to break down, hitting a low of 116788 during the midnight to early morning period. Ethereum also showed weakness, briefly rising slightly before plunging significantly, reaching a low of 3476 during the same period, with a one-sided decline of over 200 points.
**Current Technical Analysis and Outlook (Four-Hour Level):**
After a strong downward probe, the market shows initial signs of a stop in decline. With the increase in volatility, the rebound space has also expanded accordingly. The price is currently operating at a relatively low level and has begun to enter a slow oscillation recovery phase, showing signs of a bottoming rebound.
Overall, the previous decline of the bears was significant, and the market structure exhibited rapid switching characteristics. Combined with pattern analysis, the current market is in a defining phase between rebound and potential reversal. Market rules indicate that there is no market that only declines without rising, nor one that only rises without declining. This round of strong correction and volume process has basically been released in the short term, and the market is likely to enter a rebound correction phase. Considering the characteristics of the Saturday node, intraday operations can revolve around the idea of rebound recovery, attempting to buy low and first observing how the bulls recover lost ground.

**Intraday Operation Suggestions:**
* **Bitcoin:** Consider gradually building long positions in the 117300-117600 range, with a short-term target focusing on the 119500 level.
* **Ethereum:** Consider gradually building long positions in the 3530-3550 range, with a short-term target looking first at the 3650 level.

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"ETC skyrocketed by 17% today! Directly climbing to the top of the 24-hour gainers list🔥 This momentum is incredible, the price has broken through $25, and trading volume has exploded! It's definitely about to take off, buy at the current price, hurry up and get on board, don't miss out🚀 #ETC Surge #Next Peak" $ETC

The Qi Fei Reversal Plan's current 4th seed player has achieved 5 consecutive victories this week.

Big Pie 119120 in, 118133 out, profit of 1000 points, total earnings of 986 oil.

Our success is not simply "blindly following the trend," but rather making wise decisions based on a thorough understanding of market dynamics and grasping the pulse of trends!

The addition of a new partner is undoubtedly the best recognition of our strength.
This indicates that our previous efforts, professionalism, and achievements have received attention and affirmation, and it also motivates us to continue working hard to create greater value.

This may be the power of trust, stemming from fans' expectations for wealth growth.

7.19 Morning Analysis

The price surged to 121,000 before entering a downward consolidation channel, continuing to decline during the European session, and the U.S. session has tested the key support level around 117,200. Technical patterns indicate:
1. The Bollinger Bands show an expanding downward trend, with prices operating along the lower band
2. Five consecutive bearish candles form a stair-step downward structure
3. MACD histogram continues to expand, with no signs of a bottom divergence

**Key Observation Points:**
If the 117,000 support zone is effectively broken, it may open up the space below 115,000-116,500

**Today's Trading Suggestions (High Risk Warning):**
- If BTC rebounds to the 118,000-118,500 area, consider gradually building short positions, with the first target at 116,500 and the second target at 115,000
- If ETH rebounds to the 3,570-3,600 resistance zone, consider positioning short, with a target range of 3,480-3,400 $BTC $ETH

"1000U Rolling Position Operation Guide: Reject Blindness, Strictly Execute This Plan!"

I often see people asking: "How exactly should rolling positions be operated?" "Is there a detailed operational process?"

Today, I will share this methodology in full:

True rolling positions are not gambling everything at once, nor are they in pursuit of short-term profits,
but rather gradually accumulating through "rhythm control + position management + strict execution."

Taking 1000U as the principal, the specific operational steps are:

1. Initial Position Management
Control the initial investment within 500U (not exceeding 50% of total funds)
It is recommended to use only 200-300U for trial trades in the first few transactions.
Core principle:
The primary goal in the small capital stage is to ensure account safety,
keeping the maximum drawdown within 20%.
Account safety is the premise of profitability.

2. Trading Opportunity Selection Criteria
Only participate in trading opportunities that meet the following conditions:
• There are clear technical support/resistance levels
• Aligns with the trend direction of the larger cycle
• Stop-loss is controllable, potential risk-reward ratio ≥ 2:1
Initial goal:
Ensure that every trade can exit safely.

3. Risk Control Mechanism
• Set stop-loss orders in advance, and strictly prohibit temporary withdrawals or changes
• Single trade loss should not exceed 5-7% of the total account
(For a 1000U account, the single trade stop-loss is 50-70U)
Remember:
Steady operation is the key to achieving targets of 5000U and 10000U.

4. Profit Management Strategy
Set different targets based on market levels:
• Short-term fluctuations: 30-50 points
• Trend market: 80-150 points
• Medium-term opportunities: pursue a risk-reward ratio of over 3:1.

5. Capital Upgrade Plan
When the account grows to 3000U:
• Increase the single trade amount to 800-1000U
• Control single trade risk at 3-5%
• Stage drawdown should not exceed 15%
Capital management principle:
Small capital seeks survival, medium capital seeks development, large capital seeks stability.

6. Profit Lock-in Strategy
Whenever the account doubles, immediately withdraw part of the profit.
For example, when 1000U grows to 3000U:
It is recommended to withdraw 500U as a safety net.
Maintain a good trading mindset.
Continuous stability is the key to long-term profitability.

Practical suggestion:
Strictly execute this plan for 30 trading days,
Let actual account performance validate the effectiveness of the strategy.
Remember: Consistent execution outweighs any theoretical analysis.

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