Stock market heavy positive news!!!! Digital asset concept is booming🔥🔥🔥!!! Trump Media's Bitcoin "Treasury Trading" is in effect, reflecting the trend of companies incorporating crypto assets into their reserves. This may temporarily stimulate cryptocurrency-related US stocks, with companies involved in Bitcoin business attracting attention. For A-shares, the digital asset and blockchain sectors may have sentiment transmission, and some concept stocks may experience fluctuations. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and there is uncertainty in regulation. Most related speculation in A-shares is driven by short-term sentiment and is difficult to sustain. Investors should be cautious and focus on digital economy chain stocks with actual business implementation and performance support, while being wary of the risks of purely conceptual speculation.
This round of market is indeed different from before. After breaking through 100,000 dollars in December last year, it has experienced fluctuations and consolidation for almost 6 months, and today it is still hovering around 105,000. I hope that the ideal June will shine brightly, followed by a correction, and a new high at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter seems to be a bit off.
Indeed, every Bitcoin bull market seems to be the same, yet different.
This round of breaking through 100,000 dollars is too early; This round of market consolidation has lasted too long; This round has seen little breakthrough for mainstream and altcoins; This round of bull market is seemingly not so thrilling, exclusive to Bitcoin; The market trigger point has yet to appear; This round of retail market is also quite sluggish, with a crowd daily shouting 'empty, empty, empty' in the square, and there isn't much exciting substance, except for some institutions occasionally buying news;
But these 'differences' are really not the focus. The focus is that Bitcoin is being accepted by more and more institutions and even countries. Even if this process is not surging, it is too mild.
To be honest, I still hold great expectations for the second half of the year. Perhaps the main characters in the market will shift from retail to institutions and countries, the methods and cycles will adjust a bit, but the outcome will remain unchanged. You must believe that nothing can stop the penetration of Bitcoin, because this is an irreversible thing. It's not that Bitcoin needs XXX, but rather, XXX needs Bitcoin.
Finally, let’s encourage each other: In the world of Bitcoin, if you can't understand it in the short term, extend the time to adapt, and the results will naturally become clear.
What's going on?! The U.S. job market has suddenly collapsed. The latest unemployment figures have reached the highest level since the pandemic. Has the great recession quietly arrived? First of all, U.S. employment data has begun to plummet sharply. According to the latest data this week, the number of unemployment claims in the U.S. has exceeded expectations and risen to 248,000, the highest since the pandemic in 2021. What's more concerning is that it has been rising for four consecutive weeks, forming an upward trend. This is no joke.
And the culprit, as everyone probably knows, is the subsequent impact of Trump's tariffs, which is starting to reflect on the economic level. In the coming months, unemployment and inflation will only continue to rise, while the Federal Reserve is unable to cut interest rates and can only maintain ultra-high rates to suppress the economy. This is really not a good sign, and many retail investors are unaware of this data. Moreover, considering that Bitcoin has already risen 60% from 70,000, there is huge potential for a pullback. A drop from 110,000 to 100,000 is just a minor correction, and we are still far from the bottom. Such a sharp short-term drop will likely lead to some small rebounds, which is actually an opportunity to escape and set up short positions.
Morning Thoughts on June 13 Last night, Bitcoin initially rebounded to around 108300 before declining all the way down, reaching a low of around 105600. From a technical structure analysis on the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening up, and Bitcoin has broken below the lower Bollinger Band. The MACD momentum is increasing, indicating that there is still room for further decline. From the one-hour chart, Bitcoin has returned to above the lower Bollinger Band, and the momentum is decreasing, so a rebound can be expected in the morning.
Trading Suggestions Long Bitcoin around 106500 to 106800, with a target of 105500 to 104800. Long Ethereum around 2670 to 2700, with a target of 2620 to 2580.
On Thursday, the Bitcoin market showed a fluctuating downward trend during the day, with the price dropping from a high of 109,164 in the morning to a low of 106,539 in the evening, after which it stopped and then experienced a slight rebound, rising to a high of 107,769. The Ethereum market also continued to decline throughout the day until it rebounded after reaching a low of 2,714 in the evening, with the price peaking at 2,775 before stopping.
Based on the current market situation, the four-hour level indicates that after a round of adjustment, the market is currently in a stopping position, with the lower Bollinger Band providing strong support, and the bears have not broken through the lower band. The KDJ and RSI indicators show upward turning actions with the expectation of a golden cross. From the one-hour level, the market alternates between large bearish and bullish candles, with prices warming above the lower Bollinger Band, the KDJ indicator forms a golden cross at this level, and the MACD histogram also rises above the zero axis. Therefore, for our midnight operations, we can proceed with a low long strategy.
Buy Bitcoin near 107,000 with a target around 109,000.
Buy Ethereum near 2,720 with a target around 2,780.
Did you know? Nearly 1 billion people worldwide hold cryptocurrency assets, among which 170,000 have a net worth of over one million dollars, and 325 have become billionaires. Their wealth is reshaping the world order, yet some still discuss: "Is cryptocurrency a Ponzi scheme?" All of this perfectly confirms that saying: "People can never earn beyond their understanding."
Ethereum 2878 Nuke Site! Major Players Cleaned Out Overnight, Tonight's Life and Death Line Determines Bull or Bear! Last night, ETH staged an epic mass escape! The price plummeted from $2878, crashing $136 in 24 hours, with 380 million liquidation orders flooding the network—this is not a correction, but a blatant massacre by major players! A single transfer of 50,000 ETH appeared on the chain, coinciding with the precise sell-off at the 2878 high, suspected to be institutions like Grayscale cashing out under the guise of ETF approval delays.Contract Slaughterhouse: The funding rate for perpetual contracts at $2878 soared to 0.15%, with exchange borrowing high leverage long positions leading to reverse liquidations, and 120 million short positions quickly strangling retail investors.Technical Death Cross: Three failed assaults on $2870 formed a “triple top,” with daily MACD divergence triggering a death cross simultaneously; this pattern has appeared three times before the May 2024 crash, each time with a drop exceeding 30%. SEC's delay of BlackRock's proposal has led to a funding drought for institutions, with buy-side commission ratio crashing from +0.5% to negative values, and BlackRock's IBIT fund seeing net outflows hitting a three-month high in a single day.Leverage Liquidation Dominoes: A break below the $2766 support triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, with thousands of sell orders flooding the market every second, breaching the psychological barrier at $2800. The liquidation intensity map shows $780 million in liquidation orders lurking below $2750. If this week closes below $2700, the weekly chart will form a “Evening Star”—this pattern appeared during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, after which ETH crashed by 42%. The only reversal condition is for the daily chart to stabilize above $2850 with volume increasing by 300%, but currently, the number of active addresses on-chain has plummeted by 47% year-on-year, and ecological funds continue to flow out to competitors like SOL, leaving a miracle probability of less than 5%. When the $2800 support is breached like paper, and all three assaults on $2870 are mere bait, do you still believe in the nonsense of a “bull turnaround”? Remember: the sharpest scythe in a bull market is always hidden at the moment of the strongest consensus!
The bill has passed, a watershed moment for the crypto world! The 'wild growth' of stablecoins is over, and the wave of compliance officially hits the shore! Giants tremble, small players exit: This bill sets the rules for stablecoins! Giants like USDT and USDC (market capitalization over $10 billion) will have to obediently accept strict regulations from the US federal government (OCC/Federal Reserve) and be monitored daily. Small players? The compliance costs are too high, and those who can't afford it will likely have to pack up and leave. 'Good students' like USDC will be smiling, while USDT needs to make a choice: either fully comply or say goodbye to the US market which holds 65% of the global share. It feels like a major reshuffle in the industry is coming; it's a bit cruel but also a necessary path. Transparent wallets, peace of mind for investors: No more reckless behavior! Issuers must 100% back their stablecoins with real cash (cash, ultra-short-term US Treasury bonds); the previous practice of using risky assets as collateral is no longer acceptable! They also need to disclose their accounts monthly, allowing everyone to see where the money is. It feels like the risk of a crash is smaller, and holding USDT/USDC feels more secure at night. Meta and Google, don’t think about playing? DeFi under great pressure: The bill directly dampens the spirits of tech giants like Facebook and Google—thinking of issuing stablecoins on their own? No way! This is to protect traditional banks. Even worse for DeFi, it may now have to help verify user identities and prevent money laundering; not changing smart contracts could lead to lawsuits! It feels like the giants are being restricted, but the free days of DeFi are also in jeopardy; it feels a bit suffocating. Dollar hegemony, digital expansion: The Americans are clever! They are mandating that stablecoins must be pegged to dollar assets (buy US Treasury bonds!). This move extends dollar hegemony into the digital world, countering the digital yuan and the like. Tether now holds more US Treasury bonds than Germany! It feels like a national-level game; we small players are just watching, but the dollar's position is even more stable. The Senate is about to vote soon! If this bill really takes effect, it will definitely be a super major event in the crypto world!
The current trend of Bitcoin really feels familiar. Last time, after Bitcoin rose to 110,000, it retraced to around the support level of 106,700, experienced a small rebound, and then continued to fall, reaching the strong support near 104,000, which initiated a larger rebound, as shown in the figure: History may not repeat itself completely, but it is indeed meaningful for reference. Bitcoin does have certain support around 106,500-107,000, which are the previous lows. Those looking to make a small rebound can pay attention to this range. Of course, stronger support is definitely around 104,000, where the chances of a rebound are greater, and the magnitude of the rebound should also be larger. When opening a position, it is essential to operate at key support and resistance levels. Relying on support increases the success rate, and the distance to stop loss is also shorter; if it breaks down slightly, you can stop loss. Do not open a position based on feelings; gradually build your position.