区块链谭森

Jan 23 Tansen Daily Benefits:
Big cake current price is directly long, up to 104500, defense 100600
Second cake current price is directly long, up to 3300, defense 3170

MACD short momentum is gradually weakening, KDJ three lines cross upward, in a golden cross. The subsequent trend is expected to rebound. There will be news on the number of unemployment benefits at 9:30 tonight. The fluctuations at night may be a little larger than during the day.

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January 23 Afternoon Thoughts:

From a technical structure analysis, observing the 4-hour K-line trend, it is clear that the recent market has always been in a weak pattern. The price of the currency has been declining continuously, constantly setting new lows. Even when there are occasional rebounds, the strength is extremely limited, making it difficult to form a sustained upward trend. Various signs indicate that the bullish counterattack lacks sufficient support in the short term, and the subsequent trend is likely to maintain a downward posture, so a continued bearish outlook is recommended.

From the hourly K-line trend of Bitcoin, it is currently in a state of slow decline, with the price gradually going lower bit by bit. During this time, there was a quick drop followed by a rapid rebound, but it soon returned to the slow decline rhythm. As the saying goes, "slow declines do not hit the bottom"; usually, only by ending this hourly decline trend, such as experiencing a rapid drop or an upward trend, will the subsequent market direction become clearer.

Looking at the daily level, a small bearish candle has formed, with trading volume significantly reduced compared to the previous two days, and also noticeably low compared to last week's average daily trading volume, showing an overall trend of decreasing volume and downward adjustment.

Short on the first coin around 102700-103200, target near 101000.
Short on the second coin around 3240-3260, target near 3180.

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Recently, the ETH Foundation and Vitalik Buterin himself have faced a collective backlash from veteran figures in the crypto industry from both the East and West. The responses given by Vitalik and the ETH official team have been, quite frankly, unsatisfactory. In no time, the number of people criticizing ETH has surged, with reasons being varied and numerous. However, in my view, there are two main issues that stand out:

- Poor price performance: The price trend of ETH has been quite terrible, falling far short of everyone's expectations, which has left investors in the crypto circle deeply disappointed.
- Being overshadowed by SOL: Whether in terms of public chain performance or the development of the ecosystem, SOL has outperformed ETH in this round, stealing the spotlight.

But I believe these are merely surface phenomena. We must delve into the root of the problem. I have repeatedly emphasized that ETH's issues are essentially shared problems within the blockchain industry. We need to return to the value aspect and contemplate the intrinsic value of blockchain itself, the value of blockchain applications, and where the value of smart contracts truly lies.

Specifically regarding ETH, the core issue is: during this development cycle, ETH failed to propose a sufficiently imaginative and innovative narrative! Looking back at the history of cryptocurrency development, in every round of altcoin bull markets, ETH has been at the forefront, leading the wave of innovation and showcasing its leading position, sparking global enthusiasm for technological innovation in the crypto field. Just like in 2017, when the new models of smart contracts and ICOs emerged, ushering in a completely new crypto era; in 2020, the concept of DeFi arose, which subsequently extended into the new paradigm of Web3. At that time, these were all highly impactful narratives of technological innovation, demonstrating the potential of the crypto world to change the traditional internet landscape.

However, this time, ETH has neither launched an innovative narrative that could trigger industry transformation nor presented any eye-catching innovative products. This has led to a sense of indifference among long-time investors.

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Tan Sen's welfare list on January 22:
Big cake is currently short, looking down to 103500, defense: 107200
Second cake is currently short, looking down to 3220, defense: 3380

At present, it still maintains a fluctuating trend. Without the support of trading volume, it is difficult for the price to directly break the previous high in the short term. From the hourly K level, it is already at the end of the convergent triangle oscillation period. There may be a wave of market changes at this position.

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January 22 Midday Thoughts:

A deep analysis of the 15-minute candlestick chart can accurately insight into the short-term dynamics of the market. From the Bollinger Bands indicator, the current middle band value stabilizes at 105991, the upper band is fixed at 106610, and the lower band is at 105371. The current price is approaching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which clearly indicates that price fluctuations are within a relatively stable and normal range. In the framework of technical analysis, the upper and lower bands typically serve as resistance and support levels during the price fluctuation process, respectively. The KDJ indicator shows that the current values reflect that the market is in a relatively balanced state between bullish and bearish forces, accompanied by a certain degree of volatility. The bulls and bears are in a contest at this stage, and no side has formed an overwhelming advantage.

Focusing on the technical structure, the price trend exhibits a pattern of alternating regular upward and downward waves, without showing a significant one-sided upward or downward trend. This means that, in the short term, the price of the asset is likely to maintain a trend of consolidation and fluctuation. This kind of fluctuating market allows for proper wave operations.

Short position near 106000-106500 for Bitcoin, looking down to around 104000.
Short position near 3340-3360 for Ether, looking down to around 3260.

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Analysis of Trumpcoin's future trend

From the recent market performance of Trumpcoin, its price has fallen rapidly from about $60 yesterday to today's lowest point of about $30.

Generally speaking, for such meme coins that lack actual value support, the maximum callback range is usually around 70%. Calculated from the highest point of Trumpcoin at $82, its limit position is about $25, and it is unlikely to fall below a dozen dollars. From the perspective of the project itself, in order to maintain the market image and ensure the sustainable development of the project, it is usually not easy to have a bad end or market performance.

For the question of whether the current price is suitable for investors, it is necessary to consider multiple factors. If the investor has a small amount of funds, it can be considered to enter the market appropriately. For investors with low risk appetite, it is recommended to set up a grid trading strategy between $25 and $100, and invest in batches according to their own financial situation, so as to diversify risks and ensure relatively safe investment.

Judging from the market trend, Trumpcoin will not disappear from the market easily. Once the current adjustment phase ends and prices start to rise, with Trump's influence and the speculative atmosphere in the market, there may be another sharp rise, which is basically in line with the general market prediction and time nodes. At that time, Trumpcoin will most likely rise with the overall rise of the cryptocurrency market, triggering a climax of FOMO sentiment in the market, and then there may be another adjustment. This round of adjustment may mark the end of the current market cycle, and the entire cryptocurrency market may start a real bull market afterwards.

In summary, the next market may start an advertising effect similar to the Spring Festival red envelope. If you haven't entered the currency circle yet, you may regret not seizing this opportunity.

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January 22 Morning Thoughts:

From the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently showing a bullish candle, with the highest price approaching 110,000. The current resistance level is between 108,000 - 110,000, and the support level is between 106,000 - 104,000. If the daily closing price is above 106,000, it indicates a significant breakout, and there is a high probability that the price will continue to rise; if it fails to break above this level, the price may undergo a substantial correction. Ethereum also shows a bullish candle on the daily chart, with recent fluctuations of around 10%, and the volatility range is between 3,450 - 3,150. After the price broke below 3,350, it has not been able to effectively stabilize at that level, so the current resistance level is between 3,350 - 3,450, and the support level is between 3,220 - 3,150. Once there is a breakout, further trading can be considered.

Next, looking at the 1-hour candlestick chart, the price dropped close to the lower Bollinger Band near the 100,000 mark yesterday morning and rebounded quickly. The previously planned low-long strategy was effectively triggered, yielding significant gains. Currently, the Bollinger Band channel at this level continues to expand upwards, with the upper band significantly elevated and coinciding with the EMA220 moving average; this overlapping area can be considered as the first support level below.

As for the resistance level above, the target is set in the dense chip area, specifically the range of 107,000 - 108,500. If attempting a high short position today, it is advisable to focus on this range, as setting short positions here is relatively ideal.

Looking at the MACD indicator, it is currently expanding again above the zero line, which strongly indicates that the bulls still have further room for expansion, and the market's bullish strength remains robust.

Bitcoin long positions near 104,600-105,000, targeting around 108,000.
Ethereum long positions near 3,270-3,300, targeting around 3,350.

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The Chuan Chuan family has accumulated 50,000 ethers in three days. Although the inauguration speech yesterday did not mention cryptocurrency, the hawkish SEC chairman resigned that day and was replaced by a crypto supporter. He also increased his holdings by tens of millions of dollars that day. Chuan Chuan has always been a practical person, not one of those big talkers. Now that the US crypto income tax is cancelled, capital institutions will pour in. Check it out yourself!

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Evening Thoughts on January 21:

Looking at the intraday market, the overall pattern shows wide fluctuations. The market first experienced a downward adjustment, with prices retreating to a low of 100097. However, just as the market sentiment turned bearish, the bulls quietly gathered strength and rebounded strongly after hitting the bottom. By the evening, market enthusiasm was completely ignited, and prices broke through, reaching a high of 105292, demonstrating a strong upward momentum. However, just like climbing to the top of a mountain requires a brief rest, the current prices are in a correction phase.

From the 12H to daily chart, after breaking the high, the daily candlestick shows a long upper shadow, and the market outlook is unclear. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, avoiding blind aggression, and wait for a correction before seeking low-buy opportunities. In the 1H to 4H timeframe, the market conditions indicate that it is not advisable to chase after a rise at this moment. Although there may be a brief impulse for price increases, the potential risks cannot be ignored. Nonetheless, the mid to long-term support below remains solidly in place, providing a certain level of stability for the market. It is precisely due to the strong existence of mid to long-term support below that trading strategies linked to larger structural levels should adopt a low-buy approach. This requires us to have enough patience to wait for the correction to occur while closely monitoring market dynamics. Once the correction is in place, we should seize the opportunity to enter low-buy positions promptly.

Bitcoin: Can buy near 103000, short-term target 106000
Ethereum: Can buy near 3250-3270, short-term target 3350

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I thought I had already laid out the plan, but I found that I forgot to post the square. Let's talk about the market situation of Ethereum in the past two days. As you can see, the performance of Ethereum is really not very good this time. The price basically fluctuates back and forth within a few hundred points and has not been able to break through the box. At the same time, Trump concept coins and big cake SOL have risen fiercely, as if they are competing with each other. So, I have a very strong feeling that Ethereum is likely to make up for the rise next❗

From the perspective of operation strategy, I think the best buying point is in the range of 3100-3150. Our target price can be seen at 3400 or even 3800. This order is for the mid-line. You know, 3129 is the current close support level, and it happens to be at the 0.618 position of Fibonacci, so it can be judged that this support is effective. Okay, family members, everyone can place orders first.

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January 21: Tan Sen Daily Welfare List

Big cake current price is directly long, looking up to 105700, defense 103200
Second cake current price is directly long, looking up to 3350, defense 3250

From the 12-hour level, the current lower track and middle track in BOLL have a small upward rhythm change, and the currency price is close to the middle track. The short-term decline has not effectively broken (indicating that the support is very strong and the chips are very strong)

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After breaking through the historical peak, the price of Bitcoin has slightly corrected. But this brief pause is likely to just accumulate energy for the subsequent strong rise. At present, BTC is hovering around $101,000, and the market is very likely to set off a rebound wave again.

Bitcoin correction: Can the key support level hold?

Bitcoin has started a correction trend near $109,000, and has successively fallen below the two support lines of $104,500 and $103,800. The current price has slipped below $102,000 and is gradually approaching the key support area of ​​$100,000. Once BTC can stabilize its position above this support level, it is very likely to usher in another wave of gains.

Current technical analysis

From the hourly chart of BTC, a bearish trend line has been formed, and $104,000 has become an insurmountable key resistance level. If the price successfully breaks through this point, it will be expected to hit the $106,500 area and even challenge $108,000. If these resistance levels can be overcome one after another, it is not far away for BTC to hit the historical high of $109,500 again.

Risk of callback: Can the support level be as solid as a rock?

Once Bitcoin fails to break through the resistance level of $104,000, it is likely to continue to fall back, aiming directly at the support level of $100,000. Once this support level is broken, the price may further drop to $98,800, or even further, to $96,500.

Summary

The current callback of Bitcoin may only be a short-term market adjustment. As long as it can hold above the key support level, the price is expected to rebound again and start the next round of sharp gains.

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Morning Thoughts on January 21:

Yesterday, Trump's inauguration event caused a severe shock in the cryptocurrency market, with extremely thrilling and stimulating price movements, oscillating sharply up and down. In the early session, the price plummeted significantly from 7000 points, but in the afternoon, it surged strongly to 10000 points. By midnight, it again saw a drop of nearly 9000 points, a trend that is rare in the cryptocurrency world.

From the current market analysis, the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are in a state of narrowing downward. During the early hours, after the K-line dipped to the lower band and the EMA60 position, it formed a candlestick with upper and lower shadows. At this moment, the K-line is positioned between EMA30 and the middle band. From a short-term perspective, the resistance at the middle band is worth paying close attention to. If the support levels in the EMA60 to EMA80 range are effectively broken, the price may seek further support at the EMA300 position, roughly in the range of 95800 - 96000.

Looking at the MACD indicator, there is again an increase in volume below the zero axis, and the fast line shows a second divergence, indicating that a bearish trend has already formed. The market has entered a correction phase in the short term, with lows constantly refreshing and highs sequentially lowering, forming a clear downward channel. Based on this, the morning trading strategy is recommended to focus primarily on short positions.

Bitcoin: Short near 102500-103000, targeting around 96000.
Altcoin: Short near 3260-3280, targeting around 3200.

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Tan Sen's Million Dollar Trading Record (1): 10,000 USDT - 350,000 USDT
Thank you for your trust; trust is like eating meat. While you are still observing, others have already taken their profits and are well-fed. Those who hesitate will only lose opportunities. Those who are watching from the outside can only see others making money, and those who keep waiting will never have a chance when the market comes; it’s all about taking profits.

Positive Example: Not understanding the market, wholeheartedly believing in Tan Sen, and just following along. The result is profitable trading.
Negative Example: Not understanding the market, being afraid of this and that, having an uncertain mindset, and not keeping up with the operations. The result is a loss.

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January 20 Morning Thoughts: Focus on Trump's Appearance at 10:30 PM Tonight

On Monday morning, a new week officially begins. Upon waking up, I witnessed a sharp plunge in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Before Trump took office, the bears indeed seized the opportunity and struck hard. The price of Bitcoin plummeted from around $106,000 to about $99,600, a drop of nearly 7,000 points; Ethereum also fell sharply from $3,340 to around $3,150, a decline of nearly 200 points.

However, it is expected that after this fierce drop, the bearish momentum will ease somewhat. Tonight at 10:30 PM, Trump will take the stage, and the overall market sentiment still leans towards the bulls.

Currently, the market shows a clear downward trend. From the high point of the early morning until now, there has been a significant drop of nearly 7,000 points, causing a large number of long positions to be forcibly liquidated. At present, both bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce tug-of-war over the price, resulting in fluctuations of a thousand points in both directions. In terms of future market direction, if the price can successfully stabilize above the crucial level of $100,000, then there is a high probability that the market will see a strong counterattack from the bulls.

Buy Bitcoin around 100,000-100,500, target 105,000-106,000
Buy Ethereum around 3,150-3,180, target 3,400-3,450

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January 15th Afternoon Thoughts: Focus on Evening CPI Data

From the daily chart, yesterday BTC formed a doji with a long lower shadow, with the price dipping to the temporary low of 8.9, followed by a rebound. Currently, the key resistance during the rebound process is concentrated in the area where the daily MA30 and MA60 moving averages intersect, roughly around the level of 9.7. Closely monitor the subsequent price breakthrough and stability at this position, as it will provide important basis for judging the short-term trend. On the 4-hour chart, after a deep correction, the price has returned to the starting point. The upper level of 9.6 has become a key resistance level; this point is not only an important resistance on the 4-hour chart but also coincides with the position of MA256 on the 1-hour chart. In the short term, focus on the price's performance under pressure at the level of 9.6 to gauge the dynamics between bulls and bears.

On the daily chart, ETH yesterday formed a green candle with a long lower shadow. During the dip, it pierced through the daily MA120 and MA256 moving averages, but subsequently, the price quickly rebounded and closed above 3080. Compared to Bitcoin, ETH's rebound strength appears somewhat weak. Currently, the upper resistance to focus on is first at the level of 3230; if the price can effectively break through this position, further upward space is expected to open; conversely, if it faces pressure and is blocked here, there may be a risk of correction.

Today's big data CPI does not make a trend judgment, see the data after for key arrangement points!

Friends who joined on August 26, 2024, have achieved a million-fold increase in capital
So far, we have already gone through four rounds of significant capital increases. The market is quite significant throughout the whole month of September, but as long as we manage risks well, it is relatively easy to grasp. Although there have been setbacks along the way, who can say they can always manage perfectly? Without experiencing storms, how can there be rainbows? The market can indeed bring benefits, and Tan Sen is truly willing to be your dream mentor. Can't you guarantee that the next million-fold increase in capital could be yours? Dare to think and dare to act; many things are just that simple.

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Thoughts on January 15th:

From the current market perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke through the $97,000 mark last night but failed to stabilize at that price level. The current price has retraced to the $95,000-$96,000 range, entering a period of consolidation. It is noteworthy that during this process, the market has hardly seen any significant pullbacks, indicating a weakening of bearish forces, while bulls still firmly hold the initiative and dominate the market direction.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's current price is above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with overall volatility being relatively stable. The three lines of the Bollinger Bands are converging, indicating that the market is accumulating strength and waiting for a directional choice. The fast and slow MA lines are below the zero axis, but with the daily-level bullish candlestick pulling up, the coin price has steadily settled above the middle band, and various technical indicators are showing a bullish arrangement, with no obvious reversal signals in the short term.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's price strongly broke through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, followed by a certain degree of pullback; however, the pullback strength is limited and insufficient to shake the current bullish trend. At this point, the MACD dual lines are gradually turning upward, and the bearish energy bars are continuously decreasing, indicating that bullish forces are continually accumulating. Although both bulls and bears are temporarily in a stalemate, it is best to go with the trend under the current circumstances.

Long on Bitcoin at 95,200-95,500, targeting 96,200-96,500.
Long on the second coin at 3,160-3,180, targeting 3,240-3,260.