The evening market rose to around 119000 after moving up to about 118100, then the volume decreased and fell to around 117200, oscillating.
The evening market rose to around 3875 after moving up to about 3810, then fell back to around 3745.
Overall, the market maintains a wide range of oscillations. From a four-hour perspective, the trend has shifted, and the volume has reached near the lower boundary. On the hourly level, the volume has formed a downward trend, indicating a short-term downward movement, with decreasing volume.
Midnight:
The market rebounds to around 117700-118200, looking towards around 116600-116100.
The market rebounds to around 3780-3800, looking towards around 3725-3700.
The daytime market opened at around 118000 at 8 AM, continued the bearish trend and dipped to around 117400 before a sharp increase rebounded to around 119200. Currently, it is oscillating around 118800.
The daytime market opened at around 3808, and the morning market continued the bearish trend, dipping to around 3730 before rebounding to around 3885. Currently, it is oscillating around 3875.
After the market reached a historic high, it has maintained a wide oscillation in the high range. The upper range is around 121000, and the lower range is around 116000-115000. The daily K structure is gradually narrowing and consolidating, with the current trend showing a reduction in volume. The upper focus is around 120200, and the lower focus is around 116200. The four-hour level shows an increase in volume, with attention on the upper level around 119500 and the lower level around 118200-117500. The hourly level is gradually narrowing and touching the upper band nearby.
Evening:
The market is expected to pull back to around 118500-118200, looking towards around 119500-120000.
The market is expected to pull back to around 3845-3825, looking towards around 3900-3925.
Life weaves a crown with thorns, our task is to polish the thorns into shining brilliance.
Tuesday daytime: The navigation situation will pull back to around 117200-116700, looking towards around 118200-118700.
The navigation situation will pull back to around 3745-3720, looking towards around 3775-3800.
In terms of operation, first short and then go long. The navigation situation has significant fluctuations, so strict risk control and defense are required in operations. It is advisable to take profits within the range of fluctuations for safety.
U.S. stock market opens, Dow falls 4 points, S&P 500 rises 0.12%, Nasdaq rises 0.36%. Blockchain concept stocks generally rise, Strategy (MSTR.O) up 2.6%, AMD (AMD.O) up 1.6%. Some star tech stocks rise, Tesla (TSLA.O) up 0.4%, ASML (ASML.O) up 3.1%. Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rises 0.19%.
Analysis: The options market reflects that ETH may face profit-taking around $4000 and BTC around $120,000
On July 28, news emerged that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital stated that Ethereum has surged rapidly, nearing the $4000 mark for the first time since last December. With the inflow of spot ETH ETF funds exceeding Bitcoin for the seventh consecutive day, market attention on Ethereum continues to rise. Given that Ethereum's market cap is still only one-fifth that of Bitcoin, the scale of institutional and corporate treasury funds needed to drive its price increase is much smaller. Despite Ethereum becoming the media focus recently, Bitcoin still demonstrates strong resilience. Although the inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds has slowed, its price trend remains firm. Even last Friday, when a long-term holder sold 80,000 Bitcoins, the market quickly absorbed the impact, with traders seizing the opportunity to buy on dips, stabilizing the short-term surge in volatility.
Bitcoin's market cap percentage remains stable around 60%, indicating that the market still views it as the preferred choice for value storage, rather than fully shifting to altcoins. In November 2021, when ETH reached an all-time high, BTC's percentage was below 45%, with ETH close to 20%. The current pattern shows that mainstream altcoins still have room for growth. Short-term risk indicators suggest the market is overheated: the open interest for BTC and ETH perpetual contracts reached $45 billion and $28 billion, respectively, at a one-year high; the funding rates on major exchanges exceed 15%. Some large investors have taken profits, including closing ETH September expiration call option butterfly spreads and buying large put options for BTC expiring in August to hedge against downside risk. The options market reflects that ETH may face profit-taking around $4000 and BTC around $120,000. However, considering market momentum, narrative heat, and macroeconomic support, if a correction occurs, institutions and long-term holders may continue to adopt a buy-the-dip strategy.
Currently, the liquidation heat is mainly concentrated around 119500-120600 above, with strong liquidation above 121800, and concentrated below around 118100-117200, with strong liquidation below 116500.
The liquidation heat is mainly concentrated above 3900-3950, and below around 3800-3840-3780,
From the liquidation map: The liquidation area for long positions is mainly concentrated below 118400-117800-117200-116600, while the liquidation for short positions is mainly concentrated above 119200-119900-120600-121100.
Long position liquidation is concentrated below the range of 3850-3830-3810-3780, while short position liquidation is around 3885-3905-3925-3950 above.
From the liquidation hotspots and map view:
Pay attention to the resistance around 119500 on the upside, focus on the second line around 120500, and strongly watch above 121500.
On the downside, pay attention to the support around 118200, focus on the second line around 117200, and strongly look towards below 116500.
On the downside, pay attention to around 3850-3820. On the upside, pay attention to above 3900-3930.
Strict trading plan, strictly control risk. Profits can be taken within the range!
In cryptocurrency trading, mindset management is one of the key factors that determines long-term success or failure. Here are some core mindset principles to help you maintain stability in the highly volatile and high-risk cryptocurrency market:
1. Accept Uncertainty Market Nature: The cryptocurrency market operates 24/7, with prices influenced by multiple factors such as policy, technology, and sentiment, making high volatility the norm. Response Strategy: View "volatility" as an opportunity rather than a risk, develop a plan, and stick to it to avoid emotional trading. 2. Strict Risk Control Capital Management: Limit the risk of a single trade to no more than 1-2% of the principal, avoiding ALL IN. For example, participate in high-risk trades with only 5% of total capital. Stop-Loss Discipline: Set a predetermined stop-loss level (e.g., -5%) and execute it mechanically. Losses are a cost, not a failure. 3. Counterintuitive Thinking Overcoming Greed and Fear: When Greedy: Ask yourself, "Will I regret selling now?". When Fearful: Distinguish between "risk" and "opportunity"; a market crash may contain value opportunities. Avoid FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Don’t chase trends, only trade opportunities that fit your strategy. 4. Long-Term Perspective Ignore Short-Term Noise: The volatility of an hourly candlestick may be meaningless to long-term investors. Focus on fundamentals (such as project team, technological implementation) rather than short-term prices. Compound Thinking: A stable annual return of 30% far exceeds going to zero after a tenfold gain in one year. 5. Continuous Learning and Adaptation Market Evolution: New concepts like DeFi, NFTs, Layer 2, etc., emerge constantly; maintain learning but avoid blindly following trends. Reflective Recording: Review each trade, recording "why you entered/exited" to gradually optimize your strategy. 6. Emotional Isolation Balance Trading and Life: Avoid letting market conditions affect your emotions; set fixed trading hours and stay away from screens at other times. Accept Losses: Losses are part of trading; after consecutive losses, pause instead of engaging in revenge trading. 7. Independent Thinking Information Filtering: Be wary of "get-rich-quick narratives"; distinguish between real data and marketing rhetoric. For example, checking on-chain data (like net inflows to exchanges) is more reliable than listening to rumors. Reverse Verification: When everyone is bullish, be cautious of potential pullbacks. 8. Patiently Wait for Opportunities $BTC $ETH
After the daytime market fell back to around 118900, it continued to rise to around 119800 before falling back to the current oscillation around 118800.
During the daytime, the market continued to form a wedge pattern, rising from 3840 to around 3940 before falling back to oscillate around 3885.
From the current daily K structure, the market's momentum is currently negative, with the upper level focusing on around 121500 and the lower level on around 117800, and a secondary focus on around 114500. On the four-hour level, the market momentum touched the upper track and decreased in volume, forming three consecutive bearish candles, with the lower level focusing on around 117500, while the hourly level showed negative momentum, focusing on around 118400.
Monday Evening:
The market is expected to retrace to around 118400-117900, looking towards around 119500-120000.
The market is expected to retrace to around 3860-3840, looking towards around 3900-3920.
The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision this week.
Local time this Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not announce a rate cut. According to the CME's 'FedWatch Tool', the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting exceeds 95%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to around 60%. Analysts believe that the biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's rate cut remains the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. inflation outlook. Regarding the timing of potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve maintains that it needs to obtain more economic data before deciding whether to cut rates. Last week, U.S. President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and discussed interest rate issues with Fed Chairman Powell. Under Trump's ongoing pressure, the independence of the Federal Reserve has also become a recent focus of the market. Additionally, this week, the deadline set by Trump for tariff negotiations on August 1 is approaching. If an agreement cannot be reached before then, several trade partners will face higher tariffs, which could trigger fluctuations in the capital markets.
Several U.S. economic data and tech giant earnings reports will be released this week. In terms of economic data, the highly anticipated U.S. July non-farm payroll data and the U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released this week. Analysts point out that any data showing a cooling job market, weakening economy, and declining consumer confidence will increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve announcing a rate cut in September or October. This week, several major U.S. tech giants will release their earnings reports, including Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm.
Over the weekend, the shipping market mainly experienced a rise with some fluctuations, and last night the market went up to around 117800, increasing to around 119800 before retreating to around 119000.
Yesterday, the overall trend in the shipping market was mainly a wedge-shaped rise, moving up from around 3730 to around 3887 before falling back to around 3850.
From a four-hour perspective, the shipping market showed an increase in fluctuations, with a bullish trend operating with reduced volume on the hourly chart.
Monday morning:
The shipping market pulls back to around 118900-118600, looking towards around 119900-120400.
The shipping market pulls back to around 3835-3810, looking towards around 3875-3900.
The daytime market maintained a narrow range oscillation between 117800-118400.
During the daytime market, it rose from around 3730 to near 3810 and then fell back to oscillate around 3865.
Currently, the daily K-line shows an increase, with yesterday forming a small bullish bar. The focus below is around 117200. The four-hour level shows a decrease in volume and is gradually moving downward, while the hourly level shows an increase and is moving downwards, reaching near the lower bound.
Sunday Evening:
The market rebound is near 118200-118600, looking towards 117200-116800.
The market rebound is near 3780-3800, looking towards 3720-3700.
Currently, the settlement liquidity is mainly concentrated around 118800-119600 above, with strong liquidation above 120800. Below, it is concentrated around 117200-116500, with strong liquidation below 115400.
Settlement liquidity is mainly concentrated above 3800-3840, and below around 3740-3700.
From the settlement map: The liquidation range for longs is mainly concentrated below 117200-116900-116500-115700, and for shorts, it is mainly concentrated above 118800-119200-119500-120400-120800.
Long liquidation is concentrated below the range of 3761-3730-3700-3680, and short liquidation is above the range of 3811-3831-3850-3870-3890-3910.
From the liquidity hotspots and map:
On the upside, pay attention to resistance near 118500, secondary attention to around 119600, and strong attention above 120800.
On the downside, pay attention to support near 117200, secondary attention to around 116500, and strong focus below 115500.
On the downside, pay attention to around 3705-3680. On the upside, focus on above 3810-3850.
Strict trading plan, strict control to stop losses. Profit-taking is advisable within the range!
Focus on the news next week: Monday 22:30, US Dallas Fed Business Activity Index in July Tuesday 22:00, US JOLTs Job Vacancies in June, US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in July Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone second quarter GDP annual rate preliminary value, Eurozone July Industrial Sentiment Index, Eurozone July Economic Sentiment Index Wednesday 20:15, US July ADP Employment Wednesday 20:30, US second quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary value, US second quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarterly rate preliminary value, US second quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate preliminary value Thursday 20:30, US June core PCE price index annual rate, US June personal expenditure monthly rate, US second quarter labor cost index quarterly rate, monthly rate of US core PCE price index in June Friday 15:50-16:30, final value of manufacturing PMI in France/Germany/Eurozone/UK in July Friday 17:00, initial value of CPI annual rate/monthly rate in Eurozone in July Friday 20:30, US unemployment rate in July, seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment, annual rate/monthly rate of average hourly wage Friday 22:00, US ISM manufacturing PMI in July, final value of US University of Michigan consumer confidence index in July, final value of US one-year inflation rate expectation in July
On weekends, you can easily keep up while relaxing and resting. Evening short positions, ② the handles are just right to stop the flow, 44 points + 387 points. You can safely cash in as long as you gain within the range of fluctuations. Small foreshadowings slowly accumulate to become the foundation of success.
We always like to use 'go with the flow' to gloss over the thorns and bumps on the road of life, but we rarely admit that true 'going with the flow' is actually not forcing things after doing our utmost, rather than doing nothing with our hands spread out.
The shipping quote fell below 115000 at midnight and rebounded to around 117700, maintaining a small range oscillation between 117100-117600 during the day, currently oscillating near 117600.
The shipping quote fell back to around 3600 at midnight and rebounded to around 3725, then slowly rose to around 3779 near 3700 during the day, currently oscillating near 3760.
Yesterday's daily K-line left a long lower shadow with three consecutive bearish candles; the shipping quote's volatility increased, with attention to 116700, 115500, and 114500 below, and 118500, 119500, and 120500 above. The four-hour level's volatility gradually reached the middle track, while the hourly level's bullish momentum gradually decreased and diverged upward, showing a positive trend; short-term volatility gradually increased.
Saturday Night:
The shipping quote rebounded near 117900-118200, looking towards 117000-116700.
The shipping quote rebounded near 3775-3800, looking towards 3745-3720.
The evening market fell to around 114900 after reaching about 116700, then rebounded to oscillate around 115500.
The evening market fell to around 3617 after reaching about 3747, then rebounded to oscillate around 3640.
Overall, the evening maintains a downward channel, currently supported near 114500 on the 4-hour level, with an increase in the downward channel showing a bearish trend, operating near the lower track. The hourly level shows a contraction in the downward channel, presenting a small bullish column, with attention on 116100 above and support around 114000 below.
Midnight:
The shipping market rebounds near 3640-3665, looking towards around 3580-3555 below.
The shipping market rebounds near 115800-116200, looking towards around 114200-113800 below.