The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision this week.

Local time this Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not announce a rate cut. According to the CME's 'FedWatch Tool', the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting exceeds 95%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to around 60%. Analysts believe that the biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's rate cut remains the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. inflation outlook. Regarding the timing of potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve maintains that it needs to obtain more economic data before deciding whether to cut rates. Last week, U.S. President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and discussed interest rate issues with Fed Chairman Powell. Under Trump's ongoing pressure, the independence of the Federal Reserve has also become a recent focus of the market.

Additionally, this week, the deadline set by Trump for tariff negotiations on August 1 is approaching. If an agreement cannot be reached before then, several trade partners will face higher tariffs, which could trigger fluctuations in the capital markets.

Several U.S. economic data and tech giant earnings reports will be released this week.

In terms of economic data, the highly anticipated U.S. July non-farm payroll data and the U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released this week. Analysts point out that any data showing a cooling job market, weakening economy, and declining consumer confidence will increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve announcing a rate cut in September or October. This week, several major U.S. tech giants will release their earnings reports, including Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm.

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