Moyzão

The worst bull season ever!!!
The current season is the worst bull season of all cycles (so far, it even scares me, and I don't even know if we can call what has been happening a bull cycle...) and I'll explain why.
Take the last cycle: between July 2020 and February 2021, the main altcoins and even Bitcoin had already risen a few times, which is why there were corrections in January and February, and then there were exponential rises.
BUT in the current cycle, what we see is a strong fall in this period, with a downward trend appearing across the entire market except for $BTC , which seems to maintain a permanent and unshakable upward trend.
There is nothing left that can save this cycle for altcoins. There is no longer a macroeconomic trigger, there is no longer any grand narrative, on the contrary, several analysts are assuming a major global crisis that will probably crash the stock markets, and you know that Bitcoin mirrors the S&P500 chart.
It is time to start accepting a possible loss or a possible negligible profit and wait for the crypto winter to begin to buy bitcoin at a lower price and ONLY BITCOIN, ONLY BITCOIN

$ETH has been performing poorly in this cycle, or at least MUCH worse than the expectations of a year ago or more...
One of the causes goes by the name $SOL that stole the limelight from Ethereum.
Other factors are more complex and indirect, such as disagreements between the business leaders.
But I wanted to know from you, WILL ETHEREUM MAKE A TURN AROUND???
It's scary 😨 to see the evolution of Ethereum's prices in the past and current cycles: take July 2020 to February 2021 and see how Ethereum had already multiplied its price a few times... they don't have bull cycles like they used to... 🤣🤣🤣🤣😭
Ethereum has a very large network, even larger than Solana in terms of capital volume, so it may not perform as it did in the past, but it can't be considered a dead dog. Just in case, buy $BTC

#PriceTrendAnalysis Be very careful when analyzing price trends. Have you heard of Nassim Taleb?
Be careful with ANY attempt to predict what will happen. In a very short space of time, everything changes and trends reverse.
There is no way to predict that one of the largest brokers in the world will be hacked.
A trend is just that: a trend. The price tends to go to a certain point, but it does not necessarily go there.
Also considering that only $BTC can have its trend analyzed, in fact, Bitcoin's trend has always been known very well: 3 years rising, 1 year falling.
Remembering that 2025 is a year of decline, not of increase, most likely (not to run the risk of saying "with all certainty" and being wrong, but almost certainly) Bitcoin will close this year with a price well below the current one, so when the upward trend turns into a trend of deeper than an oil well, get ready to buy instead of despairing.
Buy Bitcoin, ONLY bitcoin.

#VIRTUALWhale Whales in the cryptocurrency market are individuals, entities or whatever that hold a significantly large amount of a given token. They represent one of the biggest paradoxes in the crypto market: in a market that was born seeking decentralization, today most assets are manipulated at the whim of a small number of individuals.

With the infamous "institutional entry" things only tend to get worse for the sardines, us small investors. Whales take the market where they want. Perhaps there is even a lot of manipulation by whales to avoid altseason so that countries and institutions can buy at an attractive price.

Look at how many American states are talking about creating cryptocurrency reserves. Now imagine if the price goes up 10x before they can buy, it wouldn't be at all interesting for them.

Never swim towards the whales' mouths, see what they are doing and don't get in their way

#OnChainInsights or so or so...
What can we say about on-chain analysis...?
It's the analysis of data from the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Is it useful for anything??? Well, it does serve a purpose, but...
Some people are kind of blind to this. "Now the price HAS to go up because the volume is this, the graph is that, the market sentiment is that..." then Trump comes along, talks some shit and Boom(!!!!), the market plummets.
On-chain analysis must be linked to macroeconomic analysis and, my friends, do you know the book "The Dark Swan" by Nassim Taleb???
Try to understand the dark swan logic and understand that any analysis is just a basis for decision-making, but there's no point in trying to predict anything.
OR ARE YOU GOING TO TELL ME THAT SOMEONE PREDICTED THAT ONE OF THE BIGGEST FOREX IN THE WORLD WOULD BE HACKED?

On having or not having Altseason
Guys, have you ever been curious to see the evolution of the price of cryptocurrencies like $ETH and $BNB in the period from July 2020 to February 2021???
If you do this, you will get a big scare and understand something about the current cycle.
It's not a question of whether or not we still have ALTSEASON. The thing is: WE DIDN'T HAVE ALTSEASON ANYMORE!!!
I'll repeat: WE DIDN'T HAVE ALTSEASON, it should have been happening months ago, it's not that it won't happen, it's that it didn't happen...
Altcoins were in upward movements since July 2020, between December 2020 and February 2021, Ethereum had already risen more than 4x and BNB more than 7x.
The so-called "exponential rise" was just the icing on the cake, the end of an upward movement that had been building for months on end.
When things started to improve in October, if we had maintained that upward pace we would have had an altseason.
But forget it... the dream is over.
Bitcoin is the only thing that is worth it, and perhaps it will always be worth it.

#AltcoinRevolution2028 the future looks bright, but why is the present so complicated for altcoins???
2028 doesn't matter if Solana doesn't leave the $200 mark today, $ETH fell below 3k. And what about mega projects like $PENDLE and $NEAR that fell more than 60% and don't show strength to recover...
This is talking about projects that are considered good, imagine someone who is allocated to anything seeing talk of 2028 and getting screwed in 2025.
We need to think about the future, but the market needs to prove itself NOW.
See the image below, the SAME graphic movement in ALL of them. Coincidence???
Manipulation has to end for the market to move forward. There is a long way to go until 2028...

The dominance of $BTC remains above 61%
In addition to the dominance not decreasing, on the contrary, it is increasing, and in addition to what would already be bad for altcoins, there is also a dilution of money with the amount of tokens on the market today. If you take only the Binance launch section, and add up the value that entered these cryptocurrencies, you will easily reach a few BILLION dollars (2 or 3 billion just in those that are now, not including those that have already been withdrawn from there but also have not been launched for that long).
Take the money from $TRUMP da vida, $ANIME da vida, Melania da vida and put that money in a Solana or Pendle and see if it would not have exploded. Now, take all those billions and throw them into the top 50 and see if there wouldn't have been a huge explosion...
We remain confident that we won't be at a loss, but don't think that a drop is an opportunity. Only in the case of Bitcoin, if it drops, buy as much as you can.

$BTC is still in the accumulation zone. This raises the big question: should I buy now or wait for it to drop a little more?
There will come a time when it will jump like it did when it was $65k and never returned to that level.
There is no clear indication of trends, neither bearish nor bullish... the market is undecided.
As for altcoins, the scenario is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: while those who bought bitcoin throughout 2024 are making up to +120%, those who bought altcoins are wondering whether they will be able to get out of the loss even in the event of a price explosion, since many altcoins have fallen by more than 80% since November.
"February is a bullish month"... take your bullish step, you unwary one. There are still people denying that this cycle is and will apparently be COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the others. Negatively, unfortunately. But there are still opportunities, but it will take a cool head and courage to buy even with so many drops.
These are just considerations from someone who has been in this market for a little over a year and had the prospect of multiplying his capital, but now he is thinking at times about simply reducing his losses.

#PCEInflationWatch Inflation will be the major indicator that will influence this entire cryptocurrency cycle. Let's see what measures the Trump administration will take to prevent inflation from rising. The FED will not count interest if inflation is not under absolute control. The problem is that these measures of taxing and overtaxing products from one country or another can have a terrible side effect: price increases for the American consumer.

I believe that the market will be very vigilant regarding inflation data and there will be a lot of volatility on the days when this data is released. Of course, other macroeconomic data will also be quite relevant, but I believe that inflation will perhaps be the most monitored.

We will continue to keep an eye on macroeconomic data, especially inflation.

$BTC is falling slightly, and dominance also had a very small drop. But it was enough for the lunatics to start saying that the ALTSEASON has begun...
These guys really have no shame, it only takes a $JASMY in life to rise 30% (after having fallen 75%) to start a euphoria that has no limits... or rather, the limit of this euphoria will be a new fall.
That's why it is said that 95% of the success of those who make a profit is due to the emotional control factor. The business drops 75% and despair hits: "😭😭😭 there won't be an altseason, sell everything, the market is manipulated". Then the damn altcoin rises by 7% or 10%, and there you have it: "🚀🚀🚀 now it's the moon, the ALTSEASON has begun, buy everything, all win in this shitcoin"
Don't get emotional. Focus on profits with a lower margin, but more certainty in BITCOIN. Forget about anything other than bitcoin, always taking advantage of corrections.
#comprebitcoin

Math is relentless
Something surreal will happen in this cycle. The same thing that happened in Black Fraud will happen. Think of an altcoin that fell 75%. Let's say it was worth $10 until November and fell to $2.5 from then on. This 75% drop is hypothetical, okay guys, just to illustrate what I'm saying 😉
Now, to get back to the $10 it started from, it will have to rise 300%. So after the fact, analyze carefully whether the highs that will be said after they happened were really high or just the market returning to where it was, because it seems to me that this will be the altseason of this year... then it's easy, right? "Oh, but $JASMY went up 30% in one day" my brother, guide you, that's what I'm talking about, it's easy to go up after falling so much. "Oh, you have to buy fractionally and do an average price" my brother, how many fractional purchases would you have to make with the business falling 75%??? Where are you going to get that much money from, from @???

$BTC Bitcoin's dominance will not fall that much in this cycle. With increasing support from the "institutional" and the adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value (which it is NOT, but that's a conversation for another time), the tendency is for the price to remain high and the dominance to remain stable and constant.
Altcoins, on the other hand, will be increasingly manipulated, and those who are waiting for a super altseason (where are you, you've been missing) will lose a lot of money.
The forecast of Bitcoin at one hundred and twenty thousand dollars sounds pessimistic if a race for acquisition by American states, financial institutions, banks and countries begins. If this happens, we don't know the impact on the price or the duration of this bullish cycle.
What we do know is that Bitcoin will probably NEVER return to levels below eighty thousand dollars, not even at the depths of the crypto winter. Take advantage of this opportunity to buy, buy, buy and buy. This "Never sell your Bitcoin" story is complete nonsense. NEVER sell your Bitcoin at a loss, preferably buy now and sell in two or three years

#FedHODL Despite all the pressure from President Trump, the FED kept the basic interest rate at the same level, without any changes. GDP shows no signs of rising, and sectors that depend on the acquisition of machinery are beginning to stagnate, which indicates that interest rates may be weighing on the economy. We will possibly see a cut in the next meetings, depending on inflation control, since the labor market is already showing signs of stabilization.
However, all of this is conjecture, attempts to predict the unpredictable. Nassim Taleb returned to the spotlight with the recent loss of 1 trillion dollars in market value of major technology companies due to a Chinese startup. The only thing we can predict is that nothing will turn out as we imagine in the medium to long term. No one expected the pandemic...
Just as perhaps the major crisis that many experts believe will occur in the second half of the year may NOT occur, contrary to our mania for making predictions. Otherwise, buy BITCOIN, forget about altcoins and altseason, and be at peace.

#DeepSeekImpact both the industry and the market should be prepared for what happened with Deepseek.
Disruptive technologies will emerge both in companies in Asia and in some nerd's bedroom anywhere in the world.
There will be no monopoly on information or technology, there is no point in trying to hold back progress. That is until AI itself starts to improve itself.
Technology and technology companies will be and I believe they already are A BAD investment, the speed at which they become obsolete will become exponential. We will see technologies become obsolete before they are launched. Companies will be worthless after their best results.
The AI ​​bubble will cause a burst worse than the .com bubble

#MarketPullback Be careful guys. BINANCE is recommending that you use this #⃣ and there are a lot of people posting: "TEMPORARY crash alert".

In bitcoin it will be temporary, but be careful with altcoins, memecoins and shitcoins, maybe the drop won't be that temporary.

Altcoins have fallen so much that if you don't buy back at the bottom, they will have risen by more than 100% and you will still have a loss. It's basic math. A cryptocurrency, for example, was around $8.50 and is now at $3.30. With an unbelievable 100% growth it would go to $6.6. If you still have money, buy now or you may NEVER get out of the loss.

I know it seems contradictory, but it's not. IF YOU HAVE MONEY, BUY IT!!!

About the crypto market
The crypto market has shown itself to be more fragile and subject to external influence than one would expect from a market that sold itself as "DECENTRALIZED"
The truth is that EVERYTHING is one thing, there has never been and never will be a market in the financial sector that is a COMPLETELY independent ecosystem. The crypto market, for example, is COMPLETELY DEPENDENT on global liquidity levels.
Many experts predict a decline or even a crash in the stock market, according to some much worse than the crash of 1929. For some, it will all start in February, for others in the second half of 2025. But it is a fact among the most diverse analysts that the price of stocks is exactly stretched and that the debt of most countries, but especially the American one, has become unpayable. According to these same analysts, the worst-case scenario for risk assets is taking shape: the end of inflation (increase in the monetary base, mainly through the printing of money through the issuance of public debt securities) and the beginning of a period of DEFLATION (shrinkage of the monetary base and drastic reduction in liquidity).
I hope that the drop in the crypto market is not a harbinger of all this, I still expect one last and tremendous rise before the fall that is coming.
At the next FED meeting, there is already a consensus that there WILL be NO cut in the basic interest rate. How will the already shaky crypto market react? Is this already the beginning of the crypto winter, or just the dip before taking off to the moon?
I don't know what to do about altcoins, but I'll just say one thing to you: WHATEVER HAPPENS, DON'T SELL YOUR $BTC at a loss, wait, BTC will recover.

BITCOIN
Dear friends, please realize that we cannot treat the crypto market as a single thing.
We have to break things down into some parts. First Bitcoin. It's something totally separate from everything else.
$BTC is very good, thank you. Very close to hitting its historic high, it remains the only sure bet and I would even say that it is free from major risks in the medium or long term. If you buy it today, forget about it for 5 years and return, your surprise will most likely be very pleasant.
The second part of the market is made up of a team of altcoins that had more luck than sense and are performing well. $SOL , $XRP and one or two more. They are performing well so far, there is no guarantee that even in this cycle they will not be at the same low level as the others. In the medium and long term, saying that they will still be in the top 10 or that they even still exist is IMPOSSIBLE!!!
And the third part is ALL the rest of the altcoins. They are all in the same boat: cryptocurrencies with great projects, shitcoins, foundations, memecois, scams, RWA, AI, the Solana network. In short, they are all equally chipped, accumulating drops of 50% to 80%.
Think very carefully about which part of the market you will allocate your resources to.
Forget the promises of easy and quick capital multiplication. Forget about fancy projects that will revolutionize the cryptocurrency industry.
Do it simple, do it right: BITCOIN. And forget the rest

I'm going to count on luck, I'm not going to allocate to altcoins, but I'm going to leave what I already have and see what happens, but from now on, I'm really going to allocate only to bitcoin

$BNB I remember the launch of SAGA. +17000% at launch. I thought: it's worth having a good amount of BNB and farming these coins to earn them before the launch. That was the biggest attraction of this cryptocurrency. After that, the launches started to get worse and worse and I don't see any other use for it. Binance could find uses for it within the platform itself, I believe it would be a good way to help pump it up.
When an altseason was expected to happen, they predicted that the price of BNB would reach 3k. Today, it's not even expected to reach 1k.
What happened to the market?
Did the market swell so much that it's impossible for altcoins to rise?

#USConsumerConfidence The Consumer Sentiment Index focuses on three areas: how consumers view the outlook for their own financial situation, how they view the outlook for the overall economy in the short term, and their view of the outlook for the economy in the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 key questions, each tracking a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. Samples for the Consumer Sentiment Surveys are statistically designed to be representative of all U.S. households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. At least 500 telephone interviews are conducted each month. Current values, historical data, forecasts, statistics, charts and economic calendar - United States - Consumer Confidence.