章魚燒168

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$BTC
✅ 主流採用：可能性提高

1. 政治品牌效應強大：特朗普作為極具話題性的政治人物，他的支持者群體龐大、忠誠度高。他若透過媒體平台推廣比特幣，可能吸引大量中老年美國人首次接觸和持有比特幣——這是傳統加密族群不太能觸及的人口層。

2. ETF產品更易接觸：申請 Truth Social 比特幣 ETF，若通過，將為美股投資者打開新的大門，提供“比特幣敞口”而無需直接持幣，類似 BlackRock、Fidelity 的產品，能大幅降低門檻。

3. 比特幣作為「政治資產」的確立：這一動作進一步鞏固了比特幣在部分政商圈中作為「主權對抗工具」的定位，有望吸引更多保守派基金會與機構入場。

⚠️ 政治風險：同步上升

1. 比特幣被政治綁架？：一旦比特幣被與某一政治陣營（如特朗普）綁得過緊，未來另一派（例如拜登或民主黨）可能會加強對其的監管與打壓，將其視為政治對手的金融武器。

2. 高度波動的媒體公司結構：特朗普媒體本身就是個極具爭議的企業，若未來出現醜聞或財務問題，其作為「比特幣金庫」的形象可能會動搖整體加密市場的信心。

3. 法規與監管風險再升級：SEC 批准與否本身就容易引起爭議；若日後政權更迭，這些批准可能遭遇重新審查。

🎯 綜合來看：

特朗普媒體的比特幣佈局短期內會強化市場熱度和主流曝光度，但也明顯增加了加密市場的政治敏感度與「政策綁架」風險。這對長期發展而言，是把雙刃劍——既可能加快 adoption，也可能使其被更多監管與政治鬥爭夾殺。

#特朗普比特币金库
✅ Mainstream Adoption: Increased Possibility

1. Strong Political Brand Effect: Trump, as a highly controversial political figure, has a large and loyal supporter base. If he promotes Bitcoin through media platforms, it may attract a substantial number of middle-aged and older Americans to first encounter and hold Bitcoin — a demographic that the traditional crypto community struggles to reach.

2. Easier Access to ETF Products: Applying for a Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, if approved, will open new doors for U.S. stock investors, providing 'Bitcoin exposure' without needing to hold the coins directly, similar to products from BlackRock and Fidelity, which can significantly lower the entry barrier.

3. Establishment of Bitcoin as a 'Political Asset': This move further solidifies Bitcoin's positioning as a 'sovereign countermeasure' within certain political and business circles, potentially attracting more conservative foundations and institutions to enter the market.

⚠️ Political Risks: Concurrently Rising

1. Is Bitcoin being politically hijacked?: Once Bitcoin is too closely tied to a political faction (like Trump), the opposing side (such as Biden or the Democratic Party) may intensify regulations and crackdowns, viewing it as a financial weapon against political adversaries.

2. Highly Volatile Media Company Structure: Trump's media company itself is a highly controversial entity; if scandals or financial issues arise in the future, its image as a 'Bitcoin vault' may shake overall confidence in the crypto market.

3. Regulatory and Compliance Risks Escalating: The SEC's approval or disapproval is inherently controversial; if there is a change in administration, these approvals may face re-examination.

🎯 In summary:

Trump's media Bitcoin strategy will temporarily enhance market enthusiasm and mainstream exposure, but it also significantly increases the political sensitivity and 'policy hijacking' risks of the crypto market. This presents a double-edged sword for long-term development — it may accelerate adoption, but it could also subject it to more regulation and political struggles.

$ADA
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson proposed converting 140 million ADA (approximately 100 million USD) into stablecoins and Bitcoin to enhance DeFi liquidity and ecosystem development. He emphasized that the Cardano stablecoin market size is only 31.5 million USD, far behind Ethereum and Solana. This move aims to address the stablecoin shortage issue and generate non-inflationary income, but there is significant division within the community. Some support the long-term DeFi potential, while others are concerned about short-term market pressure or a decline in ADA prices. Hoskinson suggested mitigating the impact through over-the-counter trading and algorithmic execution, and plans to discuss further at the Rare Evo event. Cardano's privacy stablecoin plan is also garnering attention, potentially achieving transaction privacy through the Midnight sidechain.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson proposed converting 140 million ADA (approximately 100 million USD) into stablecoins and Bitcoin to enhance DeFi liquidity and ecosystem development. He emphasized that the market size for Cardano stablecoins is only 31.5 million USD, far behind Ethereum and Solana. This move aims to address the stablecoin shortage issue and generate non-inflationary income, but there is significant disagreement within the community. Some support the long-term DeFi potential, while others are concerned about short-term market pressure or a decline in ADA prices. Hoskinson suggested mitigating the impact through over-the-counter trading and algorithmic execution, and plans to discuss further at the Rare Evo event. Cardano's privacy stablecoin plan is also under scrutiny, potentially achieving transaction privacy through the Midnight sidechain.

$BTC
Tonight is Friday the 13th, empty, empty, empty

Annual salary not reaching 1.5 million! A man from Taichung was discouraged from applying for the new youth housing loan by a public bank: You're too poor

The new youth housing loan was originally seen as a ray of hope for young people in Taiwan to buy houses, but it has been reported that public banks require an annual salary of 1.5 million; otherwise, applicants will be discouraged, causing extreme dissatisfaction among the affected individuals. (Background: Is the housing market about to collapse? The crash in the stock market has led to a surge in those selling houses to save stocks, and mortgage business phone calls come in endlessly.)
Taiwan's housing prices have been rising, and the new youth housing loan is seen as a lifeline for first-time buyers, yet there is a stark contrast emerging from the bank lending side. According to ETtoday's report, a 32-year-old man surnamed Lai from Taichung met the government's loan application conditions for the new youth housing loan, but was politely rejected by a public bank due to "annual salary not reaching 1.5 million." First-time buyers are heartbroken. In this case, Mr. Lai invested 12 million NTD to purchase a new property in Taichung's non-old urban area in 2022, with a unit price of 470,000 NTD and a size of 24 ping including a parking space. Recently entering the guarantee phase, he was discouraged by the cooperating public bank for "salary and location" dual reasons, feeling like he was rejected for being too poor. The new youth housing loan with an interest rate of 1.775% feels unattainable, making it extremely frustrating. Mr. Lai complained to the media: The bank's reason was that my annual salary is not 1.5 million, plus the project is not within the urban planning scope of Taichung City, so they won't approve the loan. Which first-time buyer working hard for themselves can have an annual salary of 1.5 million?
Central bank's tightening chain reaction
The Central Bank's press release after the March meeting indicated that the loan-to-value ratio for second-home mortgages has dropped from 60% to 50%, and some loans are required to cancel the grace period. Industry insiders reveal that an annual salary of 1.5 million has become a review "industry standard," and even banks that handle construction loans are only willing to allocate limits to VIPs. Mr. Lai continues to complain to the media: Supervisors in our company with around 30 years of experience have a chance to reach an annual salary of 1.5 million, but our basic employees with a monthly salary of 50,000 are already doing quite well. Although there are other banks to apply for loans, the interest rates, terms, and grace periods are not more favorable. So what is the meaning of 'new youth housing loan'? The complaints from traditional industry employees reflect the financial institutions' rapidly increasing risk awareness. The interest rates on the new youth housing loan projects offered by banks have also become a reason for considering discouraging applicants due to "not earning enough."

$ETH
Ethereum has just bounced from the key structural support level around $2,731 and is currently showing an upward trend on the 15-minute chart. This area was previously a point of bullish rebound, and this bounce may trigger a new round of upward movement, breaking through resistance levels of $2,834 and above. Watch if the price can recover to $2,773 to confirm further upward momentum.

📊 Bullish Trade Setup

• Entry Fee: $2,765 – $2,773

• TP1: $2,800

• TP2: $2,820

• TP3: $2,834

• Stop Loss: $2,731

Holding above the medium-term demand area may open up a bullish trend. Pay attention to volume confirmation to determine if the trend is solid.

#加密安全须知
"Why is #加密安全须知 still being phished?" This question is crucial because even if you have good security awareness, you may still fall victim. Below are common reasons and countermeasures:

✅ Why are you still being phished?

1. Phishing techniques are becoming increasingly sophisticated.

Fake websites are almost indistinguishable, and they use similar letters in URLs (e.g., binarnce.com impersonating binance.com).

Emails or messages appear professional, even containing information from your past activities.

2. Social engineering psychological attacks.

Attackers induce a sense of "urgency":
➤ "Your account has suspicious logins, verify immediately"
➤ "Claim airdrop within a limited time"

Manipulating trust: "I’m the project party introduced by your friend" "I’m the admin of your Telegram community"

3. Wallet authorization and signature traps.

Not every "signature" is safe! Some seemingly harmless actions actually grant control rights.

Many users confirm without understanding the content of the signature message.

4. Browser plugins or fake applications.

Malicious Chrome extensions and fake wallet apps (especially in the Android market) can steal private keys or automatically submit transactions.

5. Impersonating official communities and customer service.

Fake websites, fake Telegram, fake Discord are everywhere.

Search engine ads may even rank above the real official website.

🔒 How to enhance prevention?

1. Never click on unknown links.
Whether it's an airdrop, a project sent by a friend, or links posted in communities, always verify.

2. Always check the website URL and the HTTPS secure lock.
If possible, bookmark commonly used official websites.

3. Do not grant random authorizations or signatures.

Use tools like Revoke.cash to regularly check and revoke permissions.

Understand the content of the signature; if you encounter something you don't understand, clarify it first.

4. Use hardware wallets.
When dealing with large amounts of funds, always use a cold wallet to avoid exposing private keys.

5. Do not trust “official customer service” that contacts you proactively.
Real customer service will not message you directly. Check the official website for contact methods if necessary.

6. Enable two-step verification, protect your email account and password manager.
Many phishing attacks come from your email or password leaks.

📌 Summary

> "Phishing" is not due to your lack of caution, but rather the attack methods being too cunning.
Continuous learning + cautious operation is the basic skill in the crypto world.

#看懂K线
Candlestick charts are not a forecasting tool, but a tool that reflects market sentiment and price structure.

🔍 Why do you think candlesticks are inaccurate?

1. Looking at candlestick patterns in isolation, ignoring the context

Focusing only on patterns like 'engulfing, doji, hammer' while ignoring trend direction, support and resistance levels, trading volume, and other background information is a common mistake.

The meaning of candlestick patterns is completely different at the end of a trend compared to the beginning of a trend.

2. Not pairing with time frames and structures

The same candlestick pattern has completely different meanings on a 1-minute chart versus a daily chart.

Many people mix the logic of 'short-term candlestick analysis and long-term fundamentals,' leading to misjudgments.

3. Over-reliance on a single technical analysis tool

Candlesticks are just one of many technical tools. You also need to combine:

Moving Averages (MA)

Trading Volume (Volume)

Support/Resistance zones

Trendlines or Channels

Momentum indicators like MACD/RSI

4. Expecting candlesticks to 'predict the future' rather than provide a probabilistic advantage

Candlesticks do not guarantee outcomes; they provide probabilistic **'trading opportunities.'**

The market is not about prediction, but about response.

As long as a strategy has a win rate >50% and proper risk management, it can be profitable in the long run.

🧠 The correct way to view candlesticks:

Misconception Correct Understanding

Candlesticks can tell me the future price direction Candlesticks show past price behavior, which helps estimate market sentiment and probabilities
I can buy/sell just by looking at candlestick patterns Candlesticks should be used in conjunction with trends, positions, volume, and risk management
Technical analysis is just looking at charts and guessing direction Technical analysis is a tool for managing risk and probabilities

🛠️ Practical advice for you (even if you think candlesticks are 'inaccurate')

1. Establish a simple strategy combination:

Trend direction: Use MA20 and MA50 to determine bullish or bearish

Key positions: Identify previous highs and lows or support/resistance levels

Candlestick signals: Wait for clear reversal candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, etc.) to appear at the above positions

Volume confirmation: If there is a noticeable increase in volume at the reversal position, the credibility is higher

2. Record and backtest:

Record the results of each judgment made using candlesticks and create your own 'win rate statistics table'

3. Combine risk control and position management:

Even if the strategy's win rate is only 50%, as long as the risk-reward ratio is reasonable (e.g., 1:2), it can still be profitable in the long run.

📖 In summary:

> 'Candlesticks are not a crystal ball, but the language of market sentiment. You need to learn to interpret them, not to be superstitious.'

#常见交易错误
Real Experience Sharing: A Lesson from a Stop-Loss Limit Order

Background: In 2024, I was trading a cryptocurrency (ETH), entering a long position at $1,800 and setting a stop-loss limit order with a trigger price of $1,750 and a limit price of $1,740.

Incident: One early morning, negative U.S. inflation data was released, causing the market to flash crash, and ETH suddenly fell below $1,700. My stop-loss limit order did not execute (because the lowest pending order price was $1,740), and I only discovered in the early morning that the price had dropped to $1,500, resulting in a much larger loss than originally expected.

Lesson Learned:

In markets with low liquidity or high volatility, the risk of a stop-loss limit order is higher than that of a stop-loss market order.

Afterwards, I now directly use stop-loss market orders on high-volatility assets to ensure risk control execution.

#交易流动性
My most commonly used order types and reasons:

👉Entry: Limit Order

Reason: I like to wait for the price to reach technical support areas or near moving averages before entering, and limit orders allow me to set my entry point in advance without having to constantly monitor the market.

👉Exit: Take Profit + Stop Loss Combination

Reason: Controlling risk and profit targets is key. Even if the market changes drastically, it ensures that I can exit according to the original plan, avoiding emotional impact on decision-making.

👉Sudden Market Movements: Market Order

Reason: In the event of significant news or a breakthrough at technical levels (such as breaking through the upper boundary of a range), market orders can quickly enter and exit, seizing the opportunity.

#交易对

Order Type When to Use Reason

Market Order Quick entry/exit, such as during sudden positive or negative news Guarantee execution, but accept slippage

Limit Order Want to buy/sell at a specific price Control entry and exit prices, wait patiently for opportunities

Stop Loss Order Risk management, avoid excessive losses Automatic exit, prevent emotional trading

Take Profit Order Lock in profits, avoid giving back gains Part of a disciplined strategy
Stop Limit Order In a rapidly fluctuating market, balance price and risk management But be cautious of execution risk

#订单类型解析
Different types of orders and their operation methods:

1. Market Order

Operation Method: Execute immediately at the best available price in the current market.

Advantages: Ensures execution, fastest speed.

Disadvantages: Cannot control execution price, may experience worse than expected prices due to slippage.

2. Limit Order

Operation Method: Specify a price to buy or sell, and it will only execute when the market reaches that price.

Advantages: Controls price, suitable for waiting for a more favorable price.

Disadvantages: May not execute.

3. Stop Order

Operation Method: When the market reaches the set price, it triggers a market order to close the position.

Common Use: Protect losses, set at a certain percentage below the entry price (e.g., -5%).

Disadvantages: Market triggers may still experience slippage.

4. Take Profit Order

Operation Method: Pre-set a profit price, automatically close the position when the market reaches that price.

Usually used together with stop orders to form a risk/reward ratio strategy setup.

5. Stop-Limit Order

Operation Method: When the market reaches the trigger price, it activates a limit order instead of a market order.

Advantages: Controls loss price.

Disadvantages: May not execute during a rapid market decline, leading to larger losses.

#交易手续费揭秘

What is the funding rate for contracts?

The funding rate for contracts is a fee mechanism that traders exchange among themselves in perpetual contracts, aimed at keeping the contract price close to the spot (real) price. This rate is usually settled every few hours, with most exchanges updating it every 8 hours.

📌 Positive Funding Rate vs Negative Funding Rate

Positive Funding Rate: When the market has a bullish position dominance (i.e., most people expect the price to rise), long traders must pay funding fees to short traders.

Negative Funding Rate: When the market has a bearish position dominance (i.e., most people expect the price to fall), short traders must pay funding fees to long traders.

📌 Implications of a Negative Funding Rate

When the funding rate is negative, it usually implies:

1. There is significant short-selling pressure in the market—meaning more traders expect the market to decline and thus take short positions.

2. Long positions receive funding subsidies, meaning traders holding long positions can receive fees.

3. Market sentiment is leaning towards bearish, with a general expectation of falling prices.

However, market behavior is not solely determined by sentiment. In contrarian strategies, large traders or institutions often take long positions in a generally bearish scenario. Why?
Because if the market suddenly rebounds, short positions will be forced to close, a phenomenon known as a short squeeze, which can trigger a rapid increase in prices.

#中心化与去中心化交易所
Are DeFi's smart contracts progress or evasion of regulation?

Erik Voorhees said: "Smart contracts represent a leap forward compared to human regulators."

This is a positive affirmation of technology. Smart contracts possess:

Transparency: Anyone can audit the execution logic;

Composability: Seamless interaction between open protocols;

Trustlessness: No reliance on third-party arbitration.

But the question is:

Technology does not self-audit. Who is responsible when things go wrong? For example, centralized factors and design flaws are behind the Terra or FTX turmoil.

Most users cannot truly audit the code, leading to the risk of "false decentralization."

Therefore, smart contracts are not a shield against liability, but rather a tool for redistributing responsibility.

🧭 Direction of Regulation: Focus on behavior, not technology

A guest pointed out: "Decentralization is not lawlessness; it is transparent, predictable, and user-driven."

This statement highlights the key point—Decentralization ≠ No regulation, but rather another form of order.

The evolution of regulation should focus on the following directions:

Old Regulatory Thinking New Regulatory Thinking

Review issuers Review behaviors (such as fraud, market manipulation)
Rely on third-party reports Use on-chain data auditing
Physical geographical jurisdiction Smart contract behavioral norms + DAO contract liability attribution
Heavy penalties Encourage self-regulation and pre-compliance frameworks

✅ Conclusion: DeFi developers should enjoy "limited liability + reasonable regulation"

1. Protect their creativity and freedom of speech like open-source developers.

2. They should bear corresponding responsibilities when aware of illegal use or involvement in control.

3. Regulation should shift from "identity regulation" to "behavior and outcome regulation."

4. A clear legal framework should be established to distinguish the boundaries between "tool developers" and "financial intermediaries."

#加密圆桌讨论
🔍 1. Should engineers be responsible for the outcomes of their code usage?

SEC Chair Atkins stated: “Engineers should not be held accountable for how others use their code.”

This statement reflects a principle of “tool neutrality” — the code itself is neutral, and the responsibility lies with the user. This aligns with the traditional view in the open-source community, just like developers who write encryption functions should not be held responsible for ransomware.

However, in the financial sector, the situation is more complex:

If developers hold governance rights (such as DAO multi-signature) or control permissions, then they are no longer just tool providers.

The key variable is: is it truly decentralized? If the code can be “modified” or “halted” by someone, then the boundaries of responsibility become blurred.

---

🗣 2. Is code = freedom of speech?

Hester Peirce noted: “Code is protected by the First Amendment and falls under the scope of free speech.”

This perspective stems from past case law in the U.S. legal system (such as the PGP encryption case), emphasizing that “code is a form of expression.” From this angle, punishing developers is akin to punishing publishers.

However, this protection is not absolute:

If the code is designed for criminal purposes (such as money laundering), the court may regard it as “conduct” rather than mere speech.

Especially in financial regulation, “issuing financial products,” even in the form of code, may trigger legal liability.

---
⚙ 3. Are DeFi smart contracts an advancement or an evasion of regulation?

Erik Voorhees said: “Smart contracts represent a leap forward compared to human regulators.”

This is a positive affirmation of the technology. Smart contracts possess:

Transparency: Anyone can audit the execution logic;

Composability: Open protocols can interact seamlessly;

Trustlessness: No reliance on third-party arbitration.

But the question is:

Technology does not self-regulate. Who is responsible when things go wrong? For example, the issues behind Terra or FTX involved centralized factors and design flaws.

Users generally cannot truly audit the code, creating the risk of “pseudo-decentralization.”

Therefore, smart contracts are not a shield of immunity, but a tool for redistributing responsibility.

#纳斯达克加密ETF扩容
🪙 Proposed New Cryptocurrencies

According to the SEC's S‑1 filing and related explanations regarding fund management direction, the newly added cryptocurrencies include:

Solana (SOL)

XRP (Ripple)

Cardano (ADA)

Chainlink (LINK)

Avalanche (AVAX)

Litecoin (LTC)

Uniswap (UNI)

These assets constitute the core components of the Nasdaq Crypto US Index, and NCIQ will dynamically adjust based on market capitalization weight, initially still focusing on BTC and ETH, but in the future may include the aforementioned altcoins on a quarterly basis.

🤔 Why were these assets included?

Diversified allocation: The fund aims to track the market capitalization cryptocurrency index, actively adding several mainstream coins to diversify risk and reflect the overall market conditions.

Enhanced regulatory acceptance: As the SEC's stance on approving BTC and ETH ETFs becomes more open, Nasdaq is accelerating the improvement of its governance framework by introducing a derivatives trading system for LINK, LTC, and AVAX to meet regulatory compliance requirements.

🔜 What is the next timeline?

Hashdex has submitted the revised S‑1 and 19b‑4 documents and is currently awaiting SEC approval, with a decision from the SEC expected in the first half of 2025.

If approved, these altcoins will be gradually added to the ETF based on market capitalization weight, allowing professional investors to allocate a variety of digital assets through this bundled approach.

📰 Highlights

High-level trade talks between China and the United States kick off in London

Senior U.S. and Chinese trade officials held talks in London on June 9 at Lancaster House. The two sides discussed issues including rare earth exports, tariffs and access to advanced technologies.

This round of talks is the second high-level consultation following the Geneva interim agreement in May, aimed at easing tensions and promoting concrete compliance actions.

Key issue: resumption of rare earth exports

The U.S. delegation, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, focused on whether China would immediately resume exports of rare earths, which are important raw materials for the automotive and aerospace industries.

Despite the "positive conclusion" of the call between the two presidents and China's agreement to temporarily open relevant export licenses, analysts remain cautious about a long-term solution.

Market reaction and economic background

International gold and oil prices rose slightly (gold price rebounded to about $3,300/ounce) as the market expected that the negotiations would help ease global trade tensions and boost demand.

In addition, China's exports to the United States fell by 34-35% year-on-year in May 2025, the heaviest drop since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, indicating that the trade interaction between the two countries is under great pressure.

UK official role

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is visiting London, during which he will meet with British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, seeking to deepen economic dialogue between China and the UK and between China and the United States.

🔍 Interpretation

1. The core of the negotiations is still focused on rare earth exports: this is the primary demand of the United States, which will help ease the domestic supply chain crisis.

2. Short-term results have emerged: gold and oil prices rose before the negotiations, showing market optimism.

3. Long-term structural changes are difficult: Analysts point out that this negotiation may lead to a temporary "handshake agreement", but the two sides still have major policy differences in terms of tariffs and economic systems.
$BTC