Crypto十七

November 5th, Tuesday BTC and ETH Market Analysis

Bitcoin attempted to surge yesterday but failed, peaking at 69,500, and experienced a pullback in the early hours, breaking below the support level of 67,500, with a minimum drop to 66,835. Bitcoin declined as expected, with a drop of 2,700 points.

From the four-hour perspective of Bitcoin, its weak state is very evident, with prices falling continuously without a strong rebound, and the K-line consolidating in the lower band area of the Bollinger Bands. Although there was a corrective action after the drop in the early hours, the strength of the recovery was very weak. As the bearish energy is gradually released and shows a trend of increasing volume, Bitcoin still has the possibility of further decline.

Trading suggestion: For Bitcoin, consider shorting at the price levels of 68,500 - 69,000, with target prices looking down to 66,500 - 66,000.

For Ethereum, it is suggested to short at the price levels of 2,430 - 2,460, with target prices looking down to 2,380 - 2,350. #美国大选后涨或跌？ #以太坊白皮书11周年

November 4 ETH Market Analysis: Trading Strategies Amid Bull-Bear Competition +#BTC00929

1. Support and Rebound Situation
Last night, ETH found support near the trend support level around 2400, indicating strong buying power at this position, giving market participants confidence in price stabilization and rebound. Subsequently, the price rebounded to a high above 2490, indicating active buying near the support level, but the rebound height was limited and failed to break through the key resistance level, suggesting upward pressure.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis
1. 12-Hour Chart
After 7 consecutive bearish candles, a bullish candle has formed with a doji, signaling a reversal, with market sentiment shifting from bearish to bullish trend. The TD indicator shows a red 8 below; if a red 9 appears at close, it will enhance the upward expectation and drive the price further up.
2. Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands show signs of opening, indicating that market volatility may increase. The middle band and MA10 intersect around 2530, forming a resistance level. If the price breaks above this level, it may approach the upper band around 2680.

3. Daily Chart
The daily chart has shown 4 consecutive bearish candles, with prices in a downward trend over a long period. However, considering the current situation and technical signals, it is expected that today may close bullish, but there is resistance around the middle band at 2570, which is a critical resistance level for upward movement.

Overall, the ETH market on November 4 is in a state of bull-bear competition. There are signs of rebound and bullish signals, but the resistance is significant. In terms of operation, if the price retraces to the 2400 - 2430 range without breaking, a long position can be taken; if a rebound occurs to the 2580 - 2550 range without breaking, a short position can be taken. However, the market is ever-changing, and investors should flexibly adjust their strategies based on actual conditions. #你问我答 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

This week's major event progress and project updates +#BTC00929
1. The U.S. presidential election will be held on November 5.
2. The U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) will be made on November 8 at midnight.
3. The deadline for the Gitcoin Grant program GG22 is November 7 at 7:59.
4. The Demo Day for the 35 selected projects in the BNB Chain Season 8 MVB Accelerator program will be held on November 7.
5. Thailand Blockchain Week will start in Bangkok on November 9.
6. About $92.4 million in APT will be unlocked on November 11. #美国大选后涨或跌？ #你问我答

Wall Street veteran Bill Bryan pointed out that although lower borrowing costs will provide some relief to households and companies, they should not let their guard down, as interest rates and inflation are expected to remain high. This situation could lead to a significant decline in the stock market next year. Brian, the long-term strategist and head of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, stated that the stock market may experience turbulence over the next 12 months. He predicts that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates to the extremely low levels expected by the market, and borrowing costs could rise subsequently, potentially suppressing loans, slowing investments, and causing the U.S. and global stock markets to fall by 7% to 12%. Bryan stated, "The crisis we face is that when interest rates rise, the government cannot continue to drive the economy in this environment because they have lost the support of the market." Due to concerns about the overall debt levels and the impact of inflation on the economy, he is skeptical about whether the U.S. can implement stimulus measures like during the pandemic if credit tightening occurs. He also mentioned, "Inflation will quietly return to the global economy, and that is a reality; interest rates will inevitably rise." #BTC00929 #11月市场预测

Cryptocurrency Weekly Update: Developments, Issues, and Predictions #BTC00929
1. High uncertainty in the U.S. election, Harris’s winning probability rises, and there is an interest rate meeting on Friday, leading the cryptocurrency market to adopt a cautious approach. This period's at-the-money implied volatility (IV) rose to 80%, with this month's options IV higher than long-term options, suggesting a possible big market movement soon.
2. Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer stated that the FDIC's use of 'cease and desist letters' instructing banks to limit services to crypto companies is an attack on the crypto industry, creating unfair obstacles.
3. The total market cap of stablecoins increased by 0.38% last week, reaching $173.117 billion. The total market cap of USDT increased by 0.3% to $120.441 billion, with a market share of 69.62%.
4. Binance has a strict screening process; the token distribution and airdrop rules for listed projects are transparent, but not all projects wishing to airdrop can be listed. Investors need to think independently and not be influenced by FUD.
5. The Vice President of Sotheby’s stated that the meme token BAN is a personal interest project and is unrelated to Sotheby’s; it has not been promoted or encouraged for purchase. The rumor of making $1 million in profit is untrue, and the related wallets are not owned by him, with most profits unrealized.
6. On November 1, Russia's cryptocurrency mining regulations will come into effect, legalizing mining and stipulating safety, operation, and trading requirements for miners. Legal miners must register and report to the Federal Tax Service.
7. Web3 security incidents in October resulted in losses of approximately $147 million, with 28 attacks causing about $129 million in losses (some of which have been recovered), along with phishing attacks resulting in $18.04 million in losses.
8. Strive Enterprises established a wealth management business, integrating Bitcoin into portfolios to hedge risks. Previously raised $30 million in Series B funding, with lead investors related to Bitcoin; if Trump is elected, its CEO has served as co-chair of the transition team.
9. The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.3 billion in new investor funds in the first two days of October, with a net inflow of $4.4 billion in October. Meme stocks and AI-related tokens outperformed the overall cryptocurrency market in the ‘animal spirits’ indicator.
10. The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank mentioned in the preface of 'Monetary Theory' that if currency issuance is unrestricted, it may be replaced by digital assets and stablecoins. He also discussed thoughts on digital currencies, respecting Robert Mundell and Satoshi Nakamoto.
11. Naval stated that most crypto projects fail because founding teams become wealthy too early and cannot recruit new members; Multicoin's founder agrees, stating that the best founders are not financially driven. #美国大选后涨或跌？

Today's Market Analysis +#BTC00929

Weekend expectations for BTC to rebound to 71000, but the price fell below 69000, not meeting expectations. However, a bottoming pattern appeared at 67500 on the 4-hour level, and there is a possibility of a rebound to 70000 today.

Ethereum did not show a rebound over the weekend, presenting a downward oscillation and a decline to 2400, with an expected rebound to 2530 today.

The market corrected over the weekend; although some believe it was influenced by the U.S. elections, the underlying reason is the correction demand after Bitcoin's consecutive week of gains and Ethereum's weakness. Currently, it is the altcoin consolidation period, and large fluctuations are normal; there is no need to panic. #BTC市占率新高 #你问我答

Overall Strategy

1. Spot Strategy
Stay away from the contract market before the election results are announced. If participating in spot trading, only consider small positions and short-term operations. Be sure to wait for a very satisfactory entry point or pattern; if the conditions are not met, do not trade.

2. Altcoin Strategy
Currently, all altcoins have been impacted when trading above their cost price. The next buying opportunity must meet the following conditions: a stable external market environment, a steady Bitcoin trend, and after Bitcoin breaks through previous highs and confirms the arrival of a major upward wave, then begin the second batch of purchases.

Market Status
In the past three months, apart from meme tokens, the performance of other valuable coins has been unsatisfactory, which has severely impacted the market.
#你问我答 #美国大选后行情预测

2024 Market Summary: On the Road to a Bull Market, Holding Steady is the Winning Strategy + #BTC00929

1. Clear Market Cycles: The cycle of a market is approximately four years, much like a precisely running clock, regularly experiencing peaks and valleys. Reflecting on 2016-2017, 2020-2021, and now the current 2024-2025, it seems to follow a unique market pattern of "four-year cycles." It's so regular that as long as you hold on, you can wait for the next bull market.

2. Long-Term Holding: The Secret to Wealth: Especially in the early stages of a bull market, when the market cycle has just started, this is the best time for long-term investors to position themselves. Don't always think about cutting losses due to short-term fluctuations; when a bull market has just started, the wisest approach is to remain steady and observe.

3. The Potential of Major Coins: An explosion is just a matter of time! Those severely undervalued major coins, no matter how quiet they are now, will eventually soar if you have the patience to hold. When the market arrives, these previously overlooked coins often bring unexpected surprises.

4. Mainstream Coins are More Reliable: Don't blindly chase after small coins; mainstream coins are a better choice in comparison. Most small coins tend to underperform long-term compared to mainstream coins. Fluctuating in the small coin market may yield less profit than steadily holding mainstream coins. While small coins may have ups and downs in the short term, investors can easily fall into being trapped.

5. Roots of Regret in a Bull Market: Regrets in a bull market usually stem from not holding onto positions rather than not buying in. Looking back at bull markets, most people regret not buying early, but rather selling too soon. Only by holding on until the end can one fully enjoy the substantial returns a bull market brings.

6. True Signals of a Bull Market: When the market generally does not believe a bull market is coming, this is the true sign of a bull market. Before a bull market arrives, the market is often silent. Don't be deceived by surface phenomena; when calm and pessimistic views fill the market, it's the time to quietly hold onto your positions.

Summary:

Long-term investors are the true winners; do not be easily frightened by small price fluctuations. The market is always volatile, and maintaining a stable mindset is crucial. Remember, "Hold tight to your positions and control your trading impulses," so that you can welcome your own glorious moment in the bull market. #你问我答

Crypto situation within 24 hours: #BTC00929
I. Market situation
1. Bitcoin fell below $70,000, causing the crypto sector to fall, because it is the leader, affecting market sentiment and other cryptocurrency prices.
2. Ethereum fell by more than 6% and the exchange rate fell again, affecting investors' confidence in it.
3. Impact of US economic data: The acceleration of the PCE inflation index may cause the Federal Reserve to adopt a tightening policy, reduce liquidity and reduce investors' risk appetite; the number of initial jobless claims in the week was better than expected, reflecting the situation of the employment market, which is of great significance to the formulation of economic and monetary policies.

II. Hot news
1. Political related: Harris polls lead Trump by 1%, and political changes indirectly affect the economic policies and sentiment of the cryptocurrency market.
2. Crypto company dynamics:
Immutable was accused of violating securities laws by the US SEC, affecting its business and reputation, and triggering compliance concerns for other companies.
3. MicroStrategy's market value exceeds coinbase, reflecting changes in market value assessment and investment confidence.
4. Specific data is needed for Q3 financial reports, and the results will affect the market's confidence in and use of stablecoins. More than 64 million American voters voted in advance, and the election results may affect economic policies and the regulatory environment, affecting the cryptocurrency market.
4. Ellipsis Labs received $20 million in financing, and capital is interested in crypto-related projects, which is a positive signal for the development of the industry.

3. Crypto regulation related: Gary Gensler became the chairman of the SEC, and the enforcement expenditure of the crypto industry exceeded $400 million, indicating that the US regulatory efforts have been strengthened, and the compliance costs and pressures of crypto companies have increased. #加密货币 #你问我答

In October, the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China reached 50.3, compared to a previous expectation of 49.7, and a prior value of 49.3. Caixin indicated that the incremental growth in manufacturing has increased, and demand has shifted from a contraction state to a slight expansion. #BTC00929
In October, the manufacturing new orders index reached its highest level since July; however, unlike the overall recovery in demand, external demand has been in a contraction state for the third consecutive month.
The manufacturing employment index in October has remained in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, and has fallen to its lowest value since June 2023, with companies still maintaining a cautious attitude towards increasing employment. #中国10月财新制造业PMI

The Truth About Cryptocurrency: #BTC00929

Don't be constrained by the stereotypes of 'meme coins'. For example, people usually think that 'meme coins' need to have cute images, easily shareable memes, and a strong community, but these are just superficial phenomena. The essence lies in having a way to attract traffic easily, and the holders must share a common belief. These two points correspond to bringing incremental funds to the cryptocurrency market (that is, more buying pressure), and making existing holders 'diamond hands' (that is, reducing selling pressure). #加密货币急跌

11.1 Friday Market Trend Analysis: #BTC00929

For Bitcoin (BTC), a long position can be taken at 69000, and if the price drops to 68800, additional long positions can be added, with a stop loss set at 68400 and a target price range of 71000 - 71800. Ethereum (ETH) can follow this operation.

From the four-hour chart, after the price dropped to the 68900 level last night, a short-term rebound occurred. It should be noted that the high point of this rebound has not yet appeared, so do not rush to short. In intraday trading, the resistance levels above are at 71000 and 71600, while the support levels below are at 68800 and 68500. The trading strategy is primarily to buy low. #你问我答

BTC breaks below the psychological price level of 70,000, will you panic? #BTC00929

I just finished compiling the relevant data: On October 29, short-term holders (STH) sold 232,000 bitcoins, and long-term holders (LTH) sold 15,000; on October 30, short-term holders sold 251,000 bitcoins, and long-term holders sold 18,000; on October 31, short-term holders sold 207,000 bitcoins, and long-term holders sold 11,000.

From this data, we can see:

First, from October 28 to October 30, the main selling pressure came from chips of "short-term profit", while the main selling pressure on the 31st came from short-term "stuck chips".

Second, the 29th and 30th were an accelerated distribution process, both for long-term and short-term holders. However, by the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.

Third, in the coming days, we can continuously observe changes in data to see whether it continues to decelerate or accelerate distribution, which can serve as one of the bases for judging short-term trends.

Fourth, the current average cost for short-term holders is around 64,000. As long as this position is not broken, we can consider that the trend has not changed. #美国大选后行情预测 #你问我答

The Impact of Trump's Successful Election: #BTC00929
1. Stimulating Technological Innovation: Trump emphasizes MAGA, which may promote the development of cryptocurrency-related technological infrastructure in the U.S. The potential for his administration to reduce regulatory barriers for startups could attract blockchain and fintech companies, enhancing innovation and market competition.

2. Active Regulatory Reform: If Trump returns to the presidency, cryptocurrency regulation may become more nuanced; to maintain the U.S.'s leading position in the global financial arena, he will formulate policies that balance regulation with industry growth, attracting investors seeking stable yet dynamic markets.

3. Global Influence and Market Stability: Internationally, Trump's tough foreign policy may solidify the dollar's dominance, but it also highlights the alternative role of cryptocurrencies in global transactions, especially in areas of currency depreciation or financial instability. During previous geopolitical tensions, this situation increased interest in decentralized digital assets as a hedge investment.

4. Heightened Investor Sentiment: Trump's business-friendly government may significantly boost investor (especially retail) sentiment. In the past, cryptocurrencies relied on speculation and were heavily impacted by negative news such as China's bans. Trump's administration could bring positive effects, fostering potential tax incentives for innovation and economic stimulus measures, or guiding more institutional investor capital into the crypto market. #美国大选后行情预测

11.1 Morning Analysis #BTC00929
Last night, Bitcoin dropped significantly by 3000 points. Based on the current market conditions, this wave of decline may be nearing the end of its corrective process, and the market is bound to welcome new rebound opportunities.

Looking back at the previous increase, the intensity of this decline is within a relatively reasonable range. In my personal opinion, once the Bitcoin price completes its correction, it is still expected to rebound to 74000 or even higher, especially with the US elections approaching, which should be a good opportunity!

Position Suggestions
- BTC Short-term: Go long around 69000 - 69500, target price at 71800 - 73000.
- ETH Short-term: Ethereum (ETH) is relatively weak, go long around 2490, target price at 2600.
#你问我答 #BTC☀

The entire market was relatively calm in the morning, with no significant fluctuations. Since October 25, this bull market has started, and the price of Bitcoin has risen by 8000 points. Although Ethereum's performance is not as strong as Bitcoin's, it has also seen an increase of nearly 300 points. Investors who have long followed U God and kept up with operations have basically reaped considerable rewards in this round of market activity. I have been in this industry for nearly ten years and have seen countless situations; the crypto world has never been short of opportunities. However, the question is, when the opportunity comes, can you seize it? #BTC00929

There isn't much to explain about today's market; the morning trading strategy can still refer to the Silk Road. Currently, we need to focus on the upcoming changes in U.S. leadership and the announcement of some data. The market trend is still upward and has not been broken; after all, in less than a week, the market has welcomed a rebound, and the price has risen significantly, requiring time to digest. Once this round of consolidation ends, the market will aim for higher price levels and could break the current situation at any time.

It is important to emphasize that we have always been looking forward to the bull market. Before the bull market arrives, we have all been chasing. I remember during the last black swan event, the price of Bitcoin also surged above 70000, and market sentiment was extremely exuberant, but reality gave everyone a heavy blow. However, we cannot hesitate due to one setback; success often belongs to those who are willing to try and are not afraid of turbulence.
#下一BTC历史新高是多少？

10.31 ETH Midday Analysis
ETH dropped after reaching the resistance level around 2730 last night, hitting a low of 2635, with a decline of nearly 100 points, indicating strong resistance near 2730. Today's operations need to focus on the trend resistance around 2700. If it rebounds to the 2730 - 2700 range without breaking, a short position can be taken; below, pay attention to the trend support near 2550. If it retraces to the 2530 - 2550 range without breaking, a long position can be considered; if it breaks down, look towards 2480 before considering a long position. #BTC00929

From a technical perspective, the 6-hour Bollinger Bands are widening, previously running along the upper band. Last night it touched around 2730 and formed a hanging cross, with the TD indicator showing a green 13 near 2730 creating resistance, and currently forming a bearish candle. The 2-hour chart shows the Bollinger Bands tightening, breaking below the middle band to operate in the lower-middle band range, indicating a potential opening of the Bollinger Bands in the short term, with the middle band and MA5 crossing around 2660 forming resistance. It is expected that after the Bollinger Bands open, ETH will further decline. In summary, the strategy is to focus on shorting at high rebounds.

Midday Operation Strategy:
1. Short in the 2730 - 2700 range, target 2630 - 2600, stop loss at 2780.
2. Long in the 2530 - 2550 range, target 2630 - 2680, stop loss at 2480.

Risk Warning: The market is volatile, trading needs to be flexible, investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious! #你问我答

It may be quite difficult for this bull market to present a scene of comprehensive prosperity. The reason lies in the fact that a large amount of capital has been absorbed by Bitcoin, while retail investors frequently suffer losses and no longer trust VC coins. The market may present the following scenarios: #BTC00929
1. Bitcoin performs outstandingly on its own, with only a few strong coins able to follow its rise. In this case, Bitcoin becomes the focus of the market, its price trend is strong, attracting the attention of the vast majority of capital, while only a few coins with unique advantages or strong capabilities can perform to a certain extent under Bitcoin's influence.
2. Meme coins will occasionally produce a highly potential 'big dog'. The characteristic of these meme coins is strong uncertainty, and occasionally a certain meme coin will suddenly rise, attracting the market's attention, but it is difficult to form a sustained and stable market force, overall showing a scattered and sporadic situation.
3. The secondary sectors show a rotation phenomenon, but the sustainability of price increases in individual sectors is poor. Various secondary sectors will alternate in showing upward trends, but the popularity of each sector is difficult to maintain for long periods, with frequent capital flows between sectors, lacking coherence and stability. #BinanceBlockchainWeek #美国大选后行情预测

The core point of investment is risk control.

It's just like a basketball game; having scoring ability is far from enough. Strong defensive capability is the key to winning the game. Only by solidifying during unfavorable market conditions can profitability naturally follow when market conditions improve. #BTC #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Thursday Morning Analysis on 10.31

Yesterday, the overall performance of Bitcoin was in a high-level oscillation state. After experiencing a decline last night, it is currently oscillating and rising, with the high point last night close to 73000, and the trend is still ongoing.

Due to the rapid stretching speed, a pullback is needed to accumulate strength. The bulls still have the trend to continue pushing upwards, and the pullback is just a normal selling pressure phenomenon. The strategy remains to maintain a long view on the retracement.

Operating suggestion: Go long on Bitcoin in the range of 72000 - 71700, with a target price around 73500; go long on Ethereum in the range of 2650 - 2640, with a target price around 2720.
#下一BTC历史新高是多少？