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In a downtrend, the most valuable entry opportunities often appear when the price rebounds to the previous support and resistance zones.
When the rebound encounters resistance, if a large bearish candle or a gravestone doji appears, it signifies that the bears have regained control, and the probability of success for entering short will significantly increase.
A more prudent approach is to wait for the confirmation of 'support turning into resistance': the price first breaks below the support, then rebounds to the same area but fails to break through, making the risk-reward ratio optimal for entry.
In other words, the entry logic in a downtrend is not about randomly finding a place to short, but rather combining the trend direction, key resistance levels, and reversal patterns.
Only when these three resonate does it have practical value, rather than merely analytical value.

In a high market situation, the double top pattern is the most common signal for a market peak: two close highs, with a pullback in between, reflecting that the bulls have tried to break through twice but failed, indicating that bullish strength is waning.

However, the true key to the double top is not in how the 'shape looks', but whether the neck line has been broken.

Only when the price effectively breaks through the neck line and the pullback fails to recover does it signify that the bearish trend has truly established.

Therefore, when you see a double top, don’t rush to enter the market. The most reasonable strategy is: wait for the neck line to be effectively broken, then look for a pullback confirmation. This not only aligns with trend logic but also keeps the risk within a reasonable range.

To put it simply: the value of a double top lies not in the two peaks, but in 'breaking the neck line + pullback confirmation'. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Strategy增持比特币

In trading, many people are obsessed with improving their win rate, but the real core that determines long-term profitability is actually the risk-reward ratio.
Assuming a fixed risk of 50, different risk-reward ratios yield completely different results:
1:2 → Profit 100
1:3 → Profit 150
1:5 → Profit 250
This means that even if the win rate is average, as long as the risk-reward ratio is high enough, positive returns can still be achieved in the long run. Conversely, if the risk-reward ratio is too low, even with a high win rate, one may fall into a vicious cycle of 'making small profits and large losses.'
Therefore, the key to every trade is not to predict correctly, but to ensure that stop-losses are clear and take-profit targets are sufficient. You don’t need to be right every time, but you need to make enough when you are right.
In other words, trading is not about who can predict better; it doesn’t matter how many wrong trades you make, what really determines whether you can achieve long-term profitability is whether the mathematical expectation is on your side. #比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Once the market enters a downtrend, the most common judgment methods actually involve more than one approach, with multiple signals to refer to.

Trend lines and moving averages belong to the confirmation of forms; when the price consistently runs below, it indicates that bears are dominant.

Support and resistance emphasize structure; when rebounds are repeatedly blocked in the previous low range, it represents a lack of buying strength.

The death cross is a typical indicator signal where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, suggesting a high probability that the downtrend will continue.

These methods do not exist independently but rather corroborate each other. Truly high win-rate scenarios are never based on a single signal; rather, when the trend line, moving averages, structure, and indicators all point to the same conclusion, the downtrend is confirmed.

In other words, judging trends cannot rely on a "glance" but must form a "closed loop," using multiple methods for cross-verification. #加密市场回调 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #九月加密市场能否突破？ $BTC $ETH $SOL

Trading styles can generally be divided into three categories: breakout strategies, trend-following trading, and counter-trend trading.

The core of breakout strategies is to wait for the price to break through key levels and then enter in the direction of the momentum, suitable for those pursuing strong trending markets.

Trend-following trading focuses more on pullbacks within the trend, such as flag patterns, triangles, etc., waiting for the pullback to end before following up, which is a relatively controlled risk approach.

Counter-trend trading, on the other hand, looks for reversals at the end of a trend, such as double bottoms or double tops. This type of method has a low tolerance for error, but if the turning point is hit, the profit potential is usually larger.

There are no right or wrong styles; the key is whether it aligns with your personality, risk tolerance, and trading system. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Breakthrough Pullback Double Confirmation Entry Signal

A simple breakthrough pullback is not enough to constitute a high-quality trading opportunity.

The key is that this pullback falls on the previous resistance level and smoothly converts into new support, indicating effective structural integrity.

However, structure alone is not enough; subsequently, the market also provided reversal candlestick patterns such as hammer and bullish engulfing, which confirm the buying pressure.

The combination of structure and candlestick signals means that entering a trade is no longer a matter of "luck," but rather a trade based on consistent conditions across multiple dimensions.
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In trading, structure and patterns belong to different levels of analysis.
First, let's look at the structure: the price is running below the trend line, continuously making lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), which is a typical bearish structure.
When the trend line is broken, the structure begins to change, which is the first signal.
After the breakout, the price does not immediately reverse but forms a flag pattern, which is a continuation pattern in the upward process.
In other words, the breakout from the trend line breaks the bearish rhythm, and the flag pattern further confirms the new upward direction.
The transformation of the structure combined with the coordination of the pattern is the real opportunity worth paying attention to. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The process of finding trading opportunities is essentially about collecting evidence from different dimensions.
First, use trend lines to determine the general direction of the market, ensuring that you are looking for entry points in a trend-following environment.
Next, observe whether the price breaks through and confirms in support and resistance zones to define potential key positions.
On this basis, Fibonacci retracement helps us identify reversal points, while candlestick patterns further provide detailed confirmation, such as engulfing and reversal structures.
Finally, it is also necessary to set stop-loss and take-profit levels to close the entire trading plan.
The significance of this process lies in the fact that it is not a single signal, but rather multiple conditions stacked together that can be considered a 'valuable opportunity'.
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Missed the W bottom

This order hit the stop loss. Do not blindly chase orders. You can wait until the U.S. stock market opens tonight. Currently, it is not an effective reversal trend. Do not blindly chase long positions.

The core function of the trend line is to outline the inertia of price movement. (Inertia is key)
The most basic method of drawing is to connect multiple higher lows, allowing the line to extend along the upward rhythm.
When drawing the line, it is important to ensure that the trend line ideally follows the lower shadows and does not press against the K-line body. If the body frequently breaks below the trend line, it indicates that the line has become invalid.
Therefore, an effective trend line is not just a visual reference, but an important tool for judging rhythm and controlling risk.

Support and resistance exchange is one of the most common structures in trend movements.

During a downtrend, once the original support is broken, when the price retraces, it often encounters resistance at the same level, transforming into new resistance.

The core of this process involves three steps: support is broken, the rebound is hindered, and the lows continually decline. This reflects the shift in market forces, where buyers can no longer hold, and sellers gradually gain the upper hand.

(Gradually is the key point)

Therefore, the support and resistance exchange is not a simple switch of price levels, but an important part of trend confirmation. It marks the transition of market roles and provides a clear reference for entering the market in the direction of the trend. $BTC
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The trend has changed, do not go long now!
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Advance Ambush $ETH

Every day I shout that if there are still people who haven't bought it, then it really was a waste to follow! $ETH $SOL

Understand the trend, know the trend, learn the trend, then act! $BTC $ETH $SOL

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Huge Opportunities

The changes in trends are all foreseeable
Combine your own orders to review $BTC $ETH $SOL

I feel that the altcoin season is coming, here are my thoughts
1. BTC's market share is decreasing, which has been a major trend in recent months.
2. Recently, altcoins like ETH, SOL, ADA, and DOGE have been performing well, and large funds in the market have already begun to bet on altcoins like ETH, SOL, and LTC.

3. There is a high probability that interest rate cuts will start in September, with 2-3 instances before December.
4. In 2023, there were two altcoin seasons, and in 2024 there was one. Theoretically, there should be at least one altcoin season in 2025, and it is likely to be in Q4.

5. At this stage, if you are still betting on BTC for significant gains, it is likely to be difficult. It would be better to bet on quality altcoins like ETH, SOL, and DOGE for better opportunities.

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