夫人

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around the **$102,500-104,000** range. The technical analysis shows that short-term support has moved up to **$102,300-102,800** (4-hour EMA20 and the lower Bollinger Band). If it pulls back to this range and stabilizes while showing a long lower shadow or a MACD divergence signal, one can enter long positions in batches, targeting **$104,500-105,500**, with a stop-loss set below **$101,500**.

If the price breaks through **$104,000** with increased volume, one can chase the rise with a small position, targeting the previous high resistance level of **$105,000-106,000**, with a stop-loss at **$103,000**. Be cautious of RSI overbought conditions (daily 75) and on-chain whale selling pressure. If it falls below **$101,500**, timely stop-loss and wait-and-see are necessary.

**Position Management**: Keep total position controlled at 50%-60%, reserving cash to address pullback risks. Pay attention to the progress of the China-U.S. trade agreement and ETF capital flows; if macro benefits are realized, one can moderately increase positions. $BTC

On the 14th, a reporter learned from the Ministry of Commerce that according to the executive order issued by the White House on May 12 to "amend the equivalent tariff rates to reflect the situation of talks with the People's Republic of China," the U.S. side has revoked a total of 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods (including goods from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) based on Executive Orders No. 14259 and No. 14266 issued on April 8 and April 9, 2025, respectively, at 00:01 Eastern Time on May 14. The U.S. has also amended the equivalent tariff measures of 34% imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) based on Executive Order No. 14257 issued on April 2, 2025, of which 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, retaining the remaining 10% tariff. At the same time, the U.S. has lowered or revoked tariffs on small packages from China (including small packages from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region), reducing the international mail value-added tax rate from 120% to 54%, and revoking the measure originally set to increase the per-piece tax from $100 to $200 starting June 1, 2025. In light of the U.S. side's revocation, suspension, or adjustment of tariffs on China based on the consensus from high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S., the Chinese side will correspondingly adjust relevant tariffs and non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. (Xinhua News Agency)

On May 12, 2025, the U.S. SEC held a cryptocurrency roundtable focusing on tokenization and regulatory frameworks, with the impact on the crypto market summarized in the following four aspects:

1. **Clarification of Regulations Boosts Market Confidence**
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins clearly stated that the agency will abandon the "enforcement-first" regulatory model and shift towards establishing clear rules for the issuance, custody, and trading of crypto assets, while exploring registration exemptions and safe harbor policies to provide practical guidance for compliant projects. This move is expected to alleviate the long-standing regulatory uncertainty faced by the industry and attract more institutional capital.

2. **Tokenization Accelerates Integration with Traditional Finance**
The conference focused on the potential of on-chain securities to reshape capital markets, such as achieving automated dividends through smart contracts and enhancing the liquidity of low-liquidity assets (like real estate). The deep involvement of institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity indicates that traditional finance will accelerate its layout of tokenized assets, driving an explosion in the RWA (real-world assets) sector.

3. **Relaxation of Custody and Trading Restrictions**
The SEC announced the repeal of SAB 121, which restricted institutional custody of crypto assets, and plans to reform the "special purpose broker" framework to allow more compliant custody solutions and the development of "super app" trading platforms. This will lower the barriers for institutional participation and promote innovative mixed trading of securities and non-securities assets.

4. **Short-term Volatility and Long-term Structural Opportunities**
Although favorable policies drove Bitcoin to rise over 3% on the day, technical indicators show that some investors took profits. In the long run, the improvement of the U.S. regulatory framework may reshape the global crypto landscape, promoting the repatriation of compliant projects to the domestic market, while remaining cautious of the phased volatility brought by the pace of policy implementation.

In summary, the meeting marks a shift in U.S. crypto regulation from confrontation to collaboration, with tokenization and institutionalization becoming the core drivers of market growth in the next phase.

The future direction of Bitcoin presents three core trends:
1. **Halving effect and scarcity drive**: After the halving in 2024, the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC. Historical patterns indicate that the price may experience explosive growth in the following year (2025), with institutional predictions ranging from $150,000 to $300,000, and in extreme scenarios, it could even exceed $500,000.

2. **Institutionalization and policy support**: The global approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as BlackRock and Fidelity) is accelerating institutional capital inflow. If the U.S. implements a national Bitcoin reserve strategy, it may further solidify its status as “digital gold.” The pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration (such as the repeal of the SAB-121 regulation) and inflation hedging demands from multiple countries will enhance Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.

3. **Technological innovation and ecosystem expansion**: The Lightning Network improves payment efficiency, and Layer 2 solutions (such as Stacks) introduce smart contract capabilities, driving Bitcoin's application in DeFi and cross-border payments, with significant long-term demand potential.

In terms of risks, regulatory discrepancies (such as SEC scrutiny) and high market leverage may trigger short-term corrections, but technological upgrades and long-term institutional holdings may support an upward trend amidst volatility.$BTC

The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market is both an opportunity and a trap. Three years of trading experience have taught me that sticking to discipline is more important than predicting market trends. **First, invest with spare money**, never borrow to leverage, as market black swan events can wipe out positions instantly. **Second, set automatic stop-loss and take-profit orders**, to avoid emotional trading. I once lost 20% of a position that was up 60% because I was greedy and didn't take profit in time. **Third, position management determines survival duration**, never hold more than 10% of total funds in a single asset, diversify by allocating to mainstream coins and potential altcoins to hedge risks. **Fourth, stay away from FOMO emotions**, as community euphoria at the peak of a bull market is often a dangerous signal. During the massive rise of Dogecoin in 2021, I insisted on only keeping the profits and principal, successfully avoiding 80% of the subsequent drop. Remember: the market is always fluctuating; only by controlling risks can you navigate through the bulls and bears. #交易经验 #交易故事 #CPI数据来袭

The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market is both an opportunity and a trap. Three years of trading experience have taught me that maintaining discipline is more important than predicting the market. **First, invest with spare money**, never borrow to leverage; market black swans can instantly wipe out positions. **Second, set automatic stop-loss and take-profit**, to avoid emotional trading. I once lost 20% of a position that had a floating profit of 60% because I was greedy and did not take profits in time. **Third, position management determines survival period**, with a single coin position not exceeding 10% of total funds, diversifying into mainstream coins and promising altcoins to hedge risks. **Fourth, stay away from FOMO emotions**, as community frenzy at the peak of a bull market is often a dangerous signal. During the surge of Dogecoin in 2021, I insisted on only keeping the profit principal, successfully avoiding an 80% subsequent decline. Remember: the market is always fluctuating; only by controlling risk can one navigate through bulls and bears. #交易经验 #交易故事 #CPI数据来袭

The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market is both an opportunity and a trap. Three years of trading experience have taught me that sticking to discipline is more important than predicting market trends. **First, invest with spare money**, never borrow or leverage, as market black swan events can instantly wipe out positions. **Second, set automatic stop-loss and take-profit orders**, to avoid emotional trading. I once failed to take profits in time due to greed, resulting in a position that went from a floating profit of 60% to a loss of 20%. **Third, position management determines survival duration**, with a single asset holding not exceeding 10% of total funds, diversify by allocating to mainstream coins and potential altcoins to hedge risks. **Fourth, stay away from FOMO emotions**, as community euphoria at the peak of a bull market often signals danger. During the Dogecoin surge in 2021, I insisted on only keeping my profit principal, successfully avoiding the subsequent 80% drop. Remember: the market is always volatile; only by controlling risks can one navigate through bull and bear markets. #交易经验 #交易故事 #CPI数据来袭

The high volatility of the cryptocurrency market is both an opportunity and a trap. Three years of trading experience have taught me that sticking to discipline is more important than predicting market trends. **First, invest with spare money**, never borrow to leverage, as market black swans can instantly wipe out positions. **Second, set automatic stop-loss and take-profit**, to avoid emotional trading. I once missed timely profit-taking due to greed, resulting in a position that went from a 60% gain to a 20% loss. **Third, position management determines survival**; do not hold more than 10% of total funds in a single cryptocurrency, and diversify between mainstream coins and promising altcoins to hedge risks. **Fourth, stay away from FOMO emotions**, as community euphoria at the peak of a bull market is often a dangerous signal. During the massive surge of Dogecoin in 2021, I maintained only the profit capital, successfully avoiding an 80% drop afterward. Remember: the market is always fluctuating; only by controlling risks can one navigate through bulls and bears. #交易经验 #交易故事 #CPI数据来袭

Based on the Bitcoin market and dynamics on May 12, 2025, the following operational strategies are formulated:
1. **Entry Timing**: Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $103,864, situated at the key support zone of $104,000. If the price retraces to the range of $101,500-$102,000 (with $1.3 billion in buy orders for support), positions can be built in batches.
2. **Breakout Following Longs**: If it stabilizes above $104,000 and breaks through the resistance level of $106,000, a light position can be followed, targeting $110,000, with a stop loss set below $103,000.
3. **Risk Control**: Market volatility will increase before the CPI data is released (May 13), avoid high-leverage operations; if the price falls below the support of $101,000, it may trigger technical selling, necessitating a stop loss to exit.
4. **Position Management**: The short-term RSI is approaching overbought levels; for long positions, dynamic profit-taking is recommended (referencing the 100-day moving average of $99,200), retaining some positions to speculate on the positive developments of Sino-US trade negotiations.

*Note: The current Fear and Greed Index is 70 (Greed), caution is advised against massive shorting by whales and the risk of market sentiment reversal.*$BTC

Recent signs of easing in the China-U.S. trade war have emerged, with both sides reaching an agreement on May 12, 2025, to suspend some of the additional tariffs, resulting in a cumulative reduction of over 100%, while retaining the remaining 10% of tariffs as a bargaining chip. This move has released positive signals, boosting global market confidence in the short term, with significant recoveries in technology stocks, the yuan exchange rate, and cross-border capital flows. Industries like photovoltaics and semiconductors, which have been suppressed by tariffs, are expected to rebound. However, this easing is essentially a 'temporary compromise', as both sides have not yet broken through core conflicts regarding technological competition and supply chain restructuring. The U.S. is attempting to exchange tariff concessions for China's compromises in areas such as rare earth exports and financial openness, while China emphasizes equal negotiations and strategic resource autonomy. In the long run, the China-U.S. game will continue, and future attention should be paid to the negotiation progress during the 90-day buffer period and the handling of remaining tariffs, while also being vigilant about the impacts of technological 'decoupling' and geopolitical risks on global supply chains. #贸易战缓和

● Founder of SkyBridge Capital: U.S. Regulatory Framework May Drive Sovereign Wealth Funds to Buy Bitcoin
According to ChainCatcher, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that some sovereign wealth funds have marginally allocated Bitcoin. However, without clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets in the U.S., large-scale capital inflows are unlikely. He pointed out that if the U.S. passes stablecoin regulatory legislation, allowing traditional banks to custody Bitcoin and making progress in the tokenization of stocks and bonds, it could trigger a wave of significant Bitcoin purchases by sovereign wealth funds.
Anthony Scaramucci emphasized that only when sovereign wealth funds view Bitcoin as part of the global financial infrastructure could it potentially drive the price of Bitcoin to one million dollars.

Ethereum Price Bounces Back, Analysts Predict Possible Breakthrough of $10,000
AI Summary
According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum (ETH) rebounded from a key support level, with its price rising over 44% in three days to reach $2,600, sparking market speculation about a possible breakthrough of $10,000.
Historic price patterns and RSI recovery are similar to the setups seen before the rallies in 2016 and 2020, enhancing Ethereum's potential. Analysts believe ETH may outperform Bitcoin, Solana, and XRP in the coming months.
The long-term price trajectory of ETH continues to follow a parabolic curve established since 2015, and if this trend holds, ETH could reach a ceiling of $10,000.
Analyst MilkyBull Crypto points out that the monthly chart for ETH technically does not rule out the possibility of it rising to $10,000.
The performance of ETH's competitors Solana and XRP suggests that more capital could flow into Ethereum, further supporting expectations for its price increase.#ETH突破2500

Important News Overview of the Crypto Market on May 8, 2025

1. Bitcoin Approaches $100,000: Price Rises to $99,045, Market Boosted by Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts (Decision to be Announced Tomorrow), Technical Outlook Neutral to Bullish.

2. Policy Developments: New York State Congressman Proposes Ban on Politicians Using Memecoins and Stablecoins for Personal Gain; Arizona Signs Bill Establishing the First State-Level Crypto Reserve Account in the U.S.

3. Institutional Movements: BlackRock Increases Holdings in Bitcoin-Related Assets to $5.43 Billion, Significant Increase in Spot ETF Holdings, Showing Institutional Confidence.

4. Market Volatility and Risks: $233 Million Liquidated Across the Network in 24 Hours, Primarily Short Sellers; Coinbase Users Stolen Over $45 Million Due to Social Scams, Highlighting Security Risks.

5. Technology and Ecosystem: Solana Breaks $150, Market Sentiment Warms Up; Binance to Conduct Tron Network Wallet Maintenance Tomorrow; .sol Domain Holders to Receive a 1.5 Billion SNS Airdrop.

6. Regulatory Progress: U.S. Treasury Secretary States Aim to Create a Preferred Destination for Digital Assets; SEC Documents Reveal New York Regulators Pressured to Classify Ethereum as a Security.

7. Breakthrough in Russian Policy: The Central Bank of Russia Announces Allowing Limited Purchases of Cryptocurrency, Seen as a Major Turning Point in Global Regulation.

Bitcoin Contract Entry Strategy (May 8, 2025)
Entry Point: Lightly buy near the current price of $99,045; if it retraces to the key support level of $95,000 and stabilizes, increase the position. This area has accumulated a large number of long positions and has recently verified the effectiveness of the support multiple times.
Stop Loss: Exit decisively if it falls below $94,500 (below the support level by $500) to prevent a deep retracement triggering a chain liquidation.
Take Profit: First look at the psychological level of $100,000; after breaking through, move up to $102,000; if there is resistance and it falls back, reduce the position at $98,000 to lock in profits.
Risk Control: Keep the position within 10% of total funds, using dynamic stop-loss (such as tracking a 2% price difference) to avoid short-term volatility triggered by the Federal Reserve's decision (to be announced tomorrow).
Logic: The market is boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts, the technicals are neutral to bullish (RSI 53.32, MACD golden cross), but one must be wary of short selling pressure near $100,000 and the main liquidity harvesting.

On May 8, 2025, the price of Bitcoin surpassed $99,000, approaching the historical milestone of $100,000, with market sentiment surging. This round of increase is driven by multiple factors: the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, delaying expectations for rate cuts, coupled with the continuous capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net inflow of $142 million in a single day, and total net assets exceeding $112.7 billion, showing a significant trend of institutional capital entering the market. Additionally, the escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan has led to a surge in demand for safe havens, and the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' is heating up again, though controversies remain.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a dense liquidity pool in the $98,000-$99,500 range, with long-term holders showing significant selling pressure near $99,900. If it breaks through, it could trigger FOMO sentiment, pushing the price to challenge $100,000. However, behind the market euphoria, risks are brewing: over 100,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, and leverage risks are escalating; if the U.S. 'GENIUS Act' is passed, it may accelerate the entry of traditional institutions, but the uncertainty of the regulatory framework may still reverse market sentiment.

Despite Bitcoin's accelerating move towards mainstream asset status, its high volatility and policy competition remain short-term challenges. If it stabilizes above $100,000, it could usher in a new round of crypto bull market; conversely, there is also a possibility of a pullback to the $90,000 range for consolidation. #BTC突破99K

On May 8, 2025, payment giant Stripe announced the launch of a 'stablecoin financial account', supporting businesses and users in 101 countries and regions to store and transact USDC and USDB stablecoins, covering emerging markets like Argentina and Turkey, while major financial centers like the United States and China have yet to open. The newly launched USDB is a closed-type stablecoin issued by the Bridge platform acquired by Stripe, circulating only within the Stripe ecosystem. Its underlying assets are cash and a money market fund managed by BlackRock, pegged 1:1, and innovatively returns part of the profits to developers, exploring on-chain revenue-sharing models.

This move marks Stripe's transformation from a 'payment gateway' to 'on-chain financial infrastructure'. By integrating Bridge's issuance and custody capabilities, Stripe has built a complete closed loop of payment, settlement, and asset custody, supporting scenarios such as cross-border payments, savings, and future card payments. This strategy comes at a time just before the vote on the U.S. 'GENIUS Act', which, if passed, would provide the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and accelerate traditional institutions' entry into the market.

In the face of competitors like PayPal's PYUSD, Stripe has chosen a 'controlled closed loop' strategy, focusing more on enterprise services. It has partnered with Visa to launch AI payment tools, further consolidating its competitiveness in the global payment arena. As stablecoins become a new vehicle for the expansion of the U.S. dollar, Stripe's layout may reshape the cross-border financial landscape. #Stripe稳定币账户

According to BlockBeats, on May 8, Coinglass data shows that if Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach 396 million. If Bitcoin drops below $96,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach 305 million. The liquidation chart shows the degree of impact when the price reaches a certain position, with higher liquidation bars indicating a stronger liquidity response after price changes. $BTC

Based on market dynamics over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to approach the $100,000 mark due to multiple favorable factors. As of May 7, 2025, the BTC price has risen to $96,400, mainly driven by the stimulus from the People's Bank of China lowering interest rates, continued inflow of institutional funds (such as a net inflow of $36.72 million into BlackRock's IBIT ETF in a single day), and expectations from Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks. Technical analysis shows that BTC has firmly established a support level at $95,000, and if it breaks through the resistance at $97,000, it will directly challenge $100,000. In terms of market sentiment, the open interest in Bitcoin options betting on $100,000 has surged, and on-chain data (MVRV indicator returning to a healthy range) also supports the bullish logic.

A breakthrough is expected under the following two scenarios:
1. **Short-term breakthrough (May 8-10)**: If tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision signals a dovish stance (such as suggesting a rate cut in June), it could trigger a short squeeze, propelling BTC to break through quickly.
2. **Mid-term breakthrough (before mid-May)**: If Sino-U.S. talks ease trade tensions, coupled with continued ETF inflows (such as over $3 billion inflow into BlackRock in a week), BTC may achieve a breakthrough before mid-May.

Be cautious of short-term pullback risks; if it falls below the $93,000 support, it may retrace to the $89,000 area. Overall, under the resonance of multiple positive factors, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is high, potentially occurring as early as this week. #比特币预测

In the Capitol Hall in Washington, the discussion of the MEME Act is causing anxiety among netizens worldwide. This legislation, aimed at regulating the dissemination of online content, unexpectedly touches on the most sensitive nerve of the digital age—the right to exist of meme culture.

Memes, as the universal language of the internet, are essentially an art of deconstruction and reconstruction. When the law tries to constrain this fluid cultural form with traditional frameworks, it is as difficult as trying to catch mercury with a fishing net. The bill requires platforms to conduct copyright reviews on derivative content, which could directly lead to 80% of meme creation facing compliance crises. Research from the Electronic Frontier Foundation shows that existing algorithms cannot distinguish between infringement and fair use, and mechanical reviews will destroy the instantaneous dissemination advantage of memes.

However, the supporters of the bill are not without reason. Maliciously altered false information memes have indeed caused several social incidents in recent years. Data from the German Cybersecurity Center indicates that in 2022, 37% of online rumors were spread in the form of memes. Finding a balance between protecting creative freedom and curbing online violence has become a legislative challenge in the digital age.

Perhaps the solution lies not in the text of the law itself, but in building a new governance framework. The "Digital Culture License" system being trialed in the UK allows creators to adapt copyrighted content freely within a certain scope; this tiered licensing model may preserve space for meme culture to exist. After all, the dagger that kills memes will ultimately wound the life of internet culture.
#MEME法案

The current Bitcoin market exhibits a dual characteristic of short-term volatility and long-term bullishness. As of May 2025, the price stabilizes in the range of $93,000 to $96,000, with market volatility at a low of 563 days, indicating increased maturity. Institutional funds continue to flow in, with BlackRock's ETF seeing a net inflow of $970 million in a single day, totaling over $4.5 billion, accounting for 51% of the U.S. spot ETF market. Technical analysis shows that if Bitcoin breaks above the downward trend line and solidifies at the resistance level of $96,000, it may advance towards the $100,000 mark.

In the long term, optimized U.S. regulatory policies (such as the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act freezing 6% of circulation), rising expectations for interest rate cuts (as the labor market cools), and institutional trends (Fidelity calling Bitcoin 'undervalued') constitute core support, leading HC Wainwright to raise the target price to $225,000. However, in the short term, caution is needed regarding selling pressure around $96,000 and fluctuations triggered by macroeconomic data (such as GDP, PCE). Overall, Bitcoin remains in an upward cycle in 2025, and a pullback may present an entry opportunity. #比特币预测