马哩滑

1

Let's use an analogy to help you understand the Fed's rate-cutting cycle. Let's compare the economy to the human body. A rate-cutting cycle is like a patient's treatment cycle. If you're sick, you should rest well and avoid rushing out for fun. In other words, avoid investing during a rate-cutting cycle. A "preventive rate cut" is like a patient showing early symptoms (signs of an economic recession), and the doctor (the Fed) prescribes preventative medication (a small, preventive rate cut). While the patient's condition may improve during this phase (economic resilience + continued stock market rebound), investing during this period is not cost-effective. A "drastic rate cut" is like a patient whose condition worsens and who is admitted to the ICU (due to an economic or financial crisis or emergency) and undergoing emergency surgery (due to a significant Fed rate cut). During this phase, the patient's survival is uncertain (the end of the crisis is uncertain), and investing is even more inappropriate. Only when the doctor declares the patient's lifespan a success and they are transferred from the ICU to a regular ward (the Fed no longer cuts interest rates), indicating that the patient has passed the critical stage (the worst of the economic crisis is over), does it become the ideal time to invest.