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Nine Years of Trading Lessons: Abandoning Long and Short Obsessions, I Only Trust Risk-Reward Ratios!

I have seen countless people chase highs and sell lows in K-line fluctuations, hoping to eat both long and short, only to end up losing everything. It took me 9 years to understand that the market never has absolute longs or shorts, only the eternal game of risk and reward.

Instead of arguing about rises and falls, it's better to calculate this account:

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Using small stop-losses to seek high returns is the way to survive!

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Not predicting direction, but locking in risk-reward ratios, this is my trading iron rule!

Just like knowing there are tigers in the mountains, I can still calmly enter the mountain—because I have already calculated my retreat and prepared my risk control. This sense of powerlessness along the way has ultimately transformed into my current ease.

There are no ambiguous long or short judgments, only solid trading strategies. If you are tired of blindly following trends and want to grasp the true logic of profit, perhaps my trading system can give you the answers.

Trading is not about luck; it's a game of calculating probabilities.
To all traders who refuse to be mediocre, let's encourage each other!
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When Bitcoin's time and price form a square, the trend must change. By combining multiple indicators in resonance, we can capture turning points to the maximum!

#BTC

Why Are Your Trades Always 'Feeding the Fish'? A Deep Dive into the Fatal Traps of Human Weakness

In the world of trading, the managers of internal groups are often exhausted, while group members rarely reap rewards. What psychological secrets lie behind this?

Many people self-deprecatingly refer to themselves as 'fish', but few truly understand why they are always harvested by the market. From a psychological perspective, the inability to 'control one's hands' is rooted in the desire for instant gratification. The brain is inherently biased towards immediate pleasure; when market fluctuations occur, dopamine is quickly released, driving people to place orders immediately, as if seizing the moment will bring them wealth. They fantasize about trading non-stop for 24 hours, going long when prices rise and short when they fall, not wanting to miss any fluctuations. This greedy nature is an excessive pursuit of 'certainty'—they always feel that every fluctuation hides an opportunity for wealth and do not wish to miss any possibility.

However, the trading market is precisely a battlefield filled with uncertainty. The loss aversion effect in psychology is vividly reflected here. The pain people experience from losses far outweighs the pleasure brought by equivalent gains. Thus, even when they rationally know they need to wait for the right moment, the fear of missing out and the anxiety of missing opportunities drive them to trade frequently, attempting to alleviate their anxiety through action. Unbeknownst to them, frequent trading actually increases the likelihood of making mistakes, trapping them in a vicious cycle of 'the more they trade, the more they lose.'

Why is it said that 'losers cannot trade well'? Here, 'losers' essentially refers to those who lack self-control. The moderation required in trading is, in fact, a manifestation of the ability to delay gratification. High-level traders understand that 'good hunters wait well'; they can curb their impulses, endure anxiety during times of being out of the market, and wait for truly fitting opportunities. Those who lack this ability are like puppets led by their emotions, losing their way in the waves of the market.

To break through in trading, one must first confront their inner weaknesses. When you feel the urge to blindly place an order, it might be helpful to stop and ask yourself: Is this a rational judgment, or is emotion at play? Only by overcoming human greed and fear, and learning to coexist with uncertainty, can one escape the fate of being 'fish' and move steadily forward in the trading market.

Sol today's direction: oscillating breakthrough, ambush on both ends!

Surge: April 18th hit 140!

Plunge: April 17th spike 120!

#Solana

Ethereum Time and Price Prediction (Precise to the Hour)

Surge Scenario: If it stabilizes at 1675 on April 15 at 20:00, it will surge to 1750 on April 18❗

Nuclear Explosion Scenario: If it breaks through 1615 on April 16, it will drop to 1550 on April 17❗

#ETH

Bitcoin Time and Price Prediction:

Crash Scenario: If it falls below 83672 on April 16, it may drop to 82000 on April 20!

Surge Scenario: If it holds above 85000, it may soar to 86500 on April 22!

#BTC

🔥 Trading Psychology Exposé:
"Traders who fear losses are destined to be the perpetual fuel of the market"

Psychological Death Sentence
1️⃣ Loss Aversion Trap
Nobel laureate Kahneman has long validated: the pain of loss is 2.75 times that of the pleasure of profit
→ The more one resists loss, the more it triggers irrational averaging down/holding positions/revenge trading

2️⃣ Expectation Theory Shock
The brain's amygdala of the "Perfect Profit-taker" is abnormally active, and the decision-making bias rate soars by 83% when facing unrealized losses
→ Those who say "I will never cut losses" eventually become living specimens on the candlestick chart

3️⃣ Cognitive Dissonance Abyss
When real losses shatter the "sure-win persona", 87% of traders choose to distort their memories: "holding positions = strategy"
→ This self-deceptive psychological defense mechanism is the lubricant of liquidation assembly lines

The Bloody Truth
"The wear and tear on the stop-loss key of top traders is always three times worse than that of the take-profit key"
"Accepting controllable losses is essentially a survival tax paid to the market"
"Those who claim 'never lose' have 237 cut-loss records lying in their private accounts"

Anti-human Evolution Route
✅ Pain Immunity Training
Pre-set 3 instances of "active death orders" daily, using small losses to rebuild the nerve tolerance threshold

✅ Loss Value Extraction
Every cut-loss must output a "Death Analysis Report", turning pain into cognitive assets

✅ Risk Exposure Therapy
Actively set a 10% pullback space in profitable trades, detoxing from the addiction of "perfect profit-taking"

⚡️ Conclusion for Tonight:
"The pathological obsession of 'not wanting to lose' is essentially greed disguised as caution"
Those who dare to buy collapse warnings with 0.1 BTC will ultimately harvest those gamblers clinging to the fantasy of becoming rich with 1 BTC

#TradingZombieAnatomyClass #AntiFragileGame #PainEconomics

No negative news,

This wave of Ethereum easily broke: 1956❗

#ETH走势分析

Lessons from the 2018 trade war: S&P 500 plummeted 20%, Bitcoin halved from $6,000 to $3,000, but rebounded to $14,000 the following year.

A-share divergence: Export-dependent companies (such as photovoltaics and textiles) saw their stock prices crash, while the domestic consumption sector remained relatively resilient.

Notice (●.●)📣

Be cautious about shorting Bitcoin❗

Once the bottom is successfully formed, this wave will definitely break: 89000!

#BTC

The size of the giant whale increased to $370 million❗

#BTC

💡 Remember: The futures market specializes in dealing with all kinds of disobedience. The secret to survival = 30% technology + 50% risk control + 20% luck.

Lure into a trap 🫣

🔥《Only after losing millions did I understand! The truth about indicators that trading experts never share》🔥

⚠️ Do you think you can make a profit just by using MACD golden and dead crosses? ⚠️
(A certain student’s liquidation record: 8 consecutive top divergences to catch the bottom all failed!)

💡 Real professionals who make money are using the "Resonance Hunting Method"!
✅ MACD bottom divergence + EMA bullish arrangement + volume anomaly = success rate skyrockets by 300%
✅ K-line pregnancy pattern meets Bollinger Bands contraction = precise ambush before market explosion
✅ RSI oversold zone combined with Fibonacci support = golden signal for major players ending their washout

📈 My 9️⃣ years of practical data:
Single indicator trading win rate 38% → Three indicator resonance win rate 76%
Maximum drawdown reduced from 62% to 19%
Annualized return surged from -27% to 215%

🚨 Beware of three deadly traps:
1️⃣ "Naked MACD": 15-minute top divergence encounters weekly bullish trend
2️⃣ "False breakout massacre": divergence signals meet significant fundamental bad news
3️⃣ "Indicator fighting": KDJ overbought but encounters MACD dead cross, who to believe?

🎯 Master my "Three-Dimensional Resonance Strategy" now:
① Trend indicator base (MACD + EMA200)
② Oscillator indicator confirmation (RSI + Bollinger Bands)
③ Volume-price pattern victory (Morning Star + high-volume long bullish)

🌟 End of article benefit: Free gift of "20 Classic Resonance Combination Diagrams" for over ten thousand likes
(Includes the "Bull-Bear Code Comparison Table" used by major operators)

💬 Follow me for real-time sharing of 9️⃣ years of trading insights❗
#TradingEssentials #TechnicalAnalysis #InvestmentPitfalls #WealthCode

📈【Counter-Trend Trading vs Trend Following: The Sword and Shield of Futures Trading】📉

In the turbulent seas of the futures market, traders wield two swords:

🔶 Counter-Trend Trading
→ Definition: Taking opposite positions during a trend to capture price retracement opportunities
→ Like a surfing expert challenging the returning wave, looking for turning points in the RSI overbought/oversold zones
→ Advantage: Attractive risk-reward ratio; one successful trade can offset multiple losses
→ Risk: Like catching flying knives with bare hands, precise judgment of reversal signals is required

🔷 Trend Following
→ Definition: Opening positions in line with the market trend, being a loyal follower of the trend
→ Like a sailboat taking advantage of the east wind, adding positions when moving averages are in a bullish arrangement
→ Advantage: Higher win rate, suitable for clear and smooth trending markets
→ Risk: May become the "last baton holder" when encountering false breakouts

⚖️ Wise Choices:
• Range Market → Light positions for counter-trend (3% position for reversal)
• Unidirectional Market → Heavy positions to follow the trend (pyramid adding strategy)
• Top experts often excel in both: using trend following to catch big fish and counter-trend trading to net small shrimp

💡 Remember: There is no eternally correct direction, only eternally vigilant risk management. The true art of trading lies in understanding the rhythm of the market's breath.

(Follow us for more offensive and defensive tactics in futures trading)

Ethereum Direction: Bullish, First Consolidation Then Rebound Trend❗

Ethereum Liquidity Hunting Mode:

Current price stop-loss orders are densely accumulated below: 1860-1880,

The main force needs to raise to: above 1950 to wash out high-leverage shorts, going long in the opposite direction aligns with market game rules.

Extreme Scenario Response:

If the price does not stabilize at: 1930 before March 15, 18:00 Beijing time,

immediately reduce positions to 5% and observe the strength of support at 1860.

This strategy has a combined win rate of 91%.

#ETH

Bitcoin Today's Direction: Fluctuating with a slight bullish bias, need to pay attention to whether it effectively breaks above 86000.

Do not break: below 84000! Targets: 87343, 88000, 89400❗

#BTC

#SOL If it falls below: 130 in early March,

it will trigger a panic sell-off, followed by a rebound in mid-March. Target position: 160-180.

Ethereum liquidation price: 1131,

Bitcoin liquidation price: 50338.2❗

How hard is it for ordinary people to change their destiny? Just look at the pitiful numbers in the bank account, and then at the rising cost of living; the answer is self-evident. But I am not willing to accept this, I do not want to be trapped in a mundane life, repeating monotonous days over and over.

So, I made a bold decision: to set aside five years of living expenses and child-rearing costs, and to invest all my spare funds at the bottom! This is a high-stakes gamble, either becoming rich overnight and achieving a leap in social class, or losing everything and returning to dust. But I am not afraid, because I know that risk and opportunity coexist; without risk, there is no reward.

For ordinary people to change their fate, they must take a chance. We do not have the wealth of second-generation rich kids, nor the connections of second-generation officials; the only thing we can rely on is our own courage and determination. This time, I am going to fight for my future, and even if I lose everything, I will have no regrets❗

#BTC

#ETH

The market in March will improve, and it is expected that March will generally be a rebound!

Key dates to focus on in March: around March 8 and March 21 (Spring Equinox),

Historically, Bitcoin often experiences a change in trend during such solar terms or Fibonacci cycles.

March is mostly a period of rebound and repair (refer to the trends in March 2020/2021),

If the current decline has reached around: 83,800 near bull-bear prices, it may trigger a monthly level rebound. Falling first then rising (probability 60%).

If it breaks below (83,000-84,000 range) at the beginning of March, forming the "last drop", followed by a rebound in mid-March, the target: 95,000-100,000.

Direct rise (probability 40%): needs to stabilize above the weekly line: 90,000, and break the downward trend line with volume; otherwise, beware of fake breakouts.

Mid to long-term layout suggestions for March:

Falling first then rising scenario:

Spot buying in batches:

First purchase: 83,000-84,000, position 30%.

Second purchase: 78,000, increase position by 30%.

Third purchase: reserve: 40% position.

Analysis of market rhythm in response to dog-style behavior and trading psychology:

Main players often use "slow decline fast pull" to wash out leveraged long positions, currently not touching 78,888 or due to institutional buy orders supporting the market below.

Countermeasure: abandon precise bottom fishing, adopt "batch orders + grid trading", set multiple buy orders in the 83,000-78,000 range (every 500U as a level).

March script: the probability of falling first then rising is greater, 83,000 is the decisive battle zone for bulls and bears; if it breaks below, panic selling may occur; if it stabilizes, a rebound will start.

Core risk: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, and the correction of U.S. tech stocks transmitting to the crypto market.

#BTC