Florian W

Below is the probability forecast for reaching the target $0.0000111 of PEPE according to the framework
🎯 TARGET: $0.0000111 (Fib Extension 1.618)
• This is a potential extension area if PEPE maintains its upward structure and breaks the nearest resistance at $0.0000102–$0.0000104.
• This level is approximately 15–17% higher than the current price.

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🔍 SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

🔸 Wave Structure + Fibonacci:
• PEPE is forming wave (iii) in a smaller upward wave structure, the target for wave (iii) typically reaches ~1.618 of wave (i) → coinciding with $0.0000111.
• Currently, the price is oscillating in the Fib 0.5–0.618 range of the retracement, which is a good premise to continue the upward momentum if it does not breakdown.

🔸 Momentum Indicator:
• Stochastic & Stoch RSI are overbought → may need 1–2 adjustment candles (i.e., 1–2 hours) before continuing to rise.
• MACD is starting to form positive divergence, but there is no clear breakout volume yet.

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⏱ ESTIMATED TIME TO REACH TARGET $0.0000111

Scenario Condition Estimated Time
Favorable Rise Strong breakout through $0.0000102 in the next 1–2 candles 2–6 hours (earliest today)
Accumulation then Rise Price sideways around $0.0000095–$0.0000102 6–12 hours
Pullback before Rise Adjustment to $0.0000093–$0.0000095 then bounce up 12–24 hours
Failure Loss of support area $0.0000093 Not achieved, reversal down

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📊 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY

Scenario Current Probability
Reach $0.0000111 within 6–12 hours ~45–50%
Reach $0.0000111 after a deep pullback ~30–35%
Not achieved, break support $0.0000093 ~15–20%

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🧭 ACTION SUGGESTION
• Follow breakout: Buy when closing H1 candles above $0.0000102–$0.0000104 with volume → target $0.0000111 feasible within 6 hours.
• Wait for adjustment: Buy around ~$0.0000095 if the price tests back, keep a tight SL and expect a rebound in 12–24 hours.