Crypto-芒果

Major Signal! Trump May Significantly Reduce Tariffs on China Next Month
Recent multiple signs indicate that the Trump administration may significantly adjust the current high tariffs on China to a so-called 'reasonable' range within the next month, marking a key turning point in China-U.S. trade relations.

Trump's attitude has softened. In a recent interview, he admitted to bearing primary responsibility for the current tense China-U.S. trade situation.

He stated that the 145% high tariffs hinder normal bilateral commercial exchanges and that they will be significantly reduced in the future, though not to zero, which is a stark contrast to his previous hardline stance, signaling a clear policy shift.

There are also noticeable changes in the business sector. Major U.S. supermarket companies, represented by Walmart, have notified their suppliers in China to resume supply and absorb the new tariff costs.

Previously, companies like Walmart held closed-door meetings with Trump and quickly resumed purchasing afterward, indicating that Trump is very likely to cut tariffs to alleviate cost and supply chain pressures on U.S. businesses.

On the market front, high tariffs have caused the U.S. consumer price index to rise, increasing the cost of living for the public and leading to heightened dissatisfaction with Trump's economic policies; profit margins for businesses have been squeezed, prompting calls for tariff adjustments.

Against this backdrop, the Trump administration's tariff reduction can soothe domestic businesses and voters, and it is expected to repair China-U.S. trade relations, stabilizing global supply chains and market confidence.

Overall, May may become a key turning point in China-U.S. trade relations, and the tariff adjustment measures by the Trump administration deserve close attention as they will not only affect bilateral economic and trade relations but also have a significant impact on the global economic landscape.

BNB current price range 608-603 multiple, target 620, ​​​​

4.29 BTC, ETH Market Analysis
Good afternoon! Bitcoin (BTC) quickly rebounded after a midnight dip, showing strong resilience.

The daily chart continues to consolidate at a high level, and the 4-hour chart shows a wide fluctuation. It is recommended to sell high and buy low.

Key support at 94300, with resistance levels at 95700, 96900, and 98500;

If the 4-hour chart breaks below 94300, support to watch below is 93500, 92700, and 91880.

Ethereum (ETH) is oscillating in the 4-hour chart, with core support at 1795.

If this level is not effectively broken, there is still upward space after a short-term correction, with resistance levels at 1825, 1855, and 1880;

If the 4-hour chart breaks below 1795, a correction is expected, with support levels at 1780, 1765, 1740, and 1720.

Amidst Intensifying Competition, Tether's USDT Remains the Leader in the Stablecoin Market
According to the latest report from Web3 research firm Nansen, even as competition in the stablecoin market becomes increasingly fierce, Tether's USDT continues to dominate.

As of April 25, 2025, USDT accounts for as much as 66% of the stablecoin market share, leaving competitors far behind, with USDC only holding 28%.

Since Trump was elected in November 2024, the regulatory environment in the United States has gradually become more friendly to cryptocurrencies, allowing USDC to rapidly increase its market share.

However, despite USDC's impressive growth, Tether still holds a unique position in the market due to its vast user base and significant trading volume in on-chain activities.

From a profitability perspective, Tether stands out among stablecoin issuers.

In 2024, Tether's profits approached $14 billion, making it a veritable money printer in the industry.

Currently, traditional financial institutions like PayPal and Ripple are entering the stablecoin sector, further intensifying market competition.

But given the current situation, Tether's constructed market advantage is extremely solid, and its dominant position seems difficult to shake in the short term.

In the cryptocurrency field, I no longer have faith in the traditional bull and bear cycle theory.

The market dividends have an upper limit, and the current market development is vastly different from the past, making it difficult to define with traditional bull and bear concepts.

I believe that when no one dares to go long in the market, it often signifies the quiet arrival of a bull market; conversely, when no one dares to go short, a bear market may be brewing.

Many opportunities that did not appear in the first round of market movements may instead manifest in the second round, after investors have generally lost confidence.

Take XRP as an example: the previous cycle was uneventful, but the last cycle saw explosive growth, with an astonishing increase.

This phenomenon also applies to Ethereum and the altcoin market; the operational logic of the market has undergone significant changes.

SOL retraced to 145 for long positions, surged to around 149 in the early morning to take a profit of 4 points, continue to look up at the target!

Yesterday's market seemed to be on the verge of a big drop, but in reality, it entered a consolidation phase. The four-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Bands are flat, with prices oscillating between 92000 and 96000;

The hourly chart shows signs of a pullback. The MACD indicator is diverging, with the fast and slow lines converging;

The RSI is close to the overbought zone (46); the EMA7 and EMA30 moving averages are converging, indicating an unclear short-term trend.

Dachuan predicts that the market will see a significant pullback and recommends strict risk control.

Trading recommendations:
- Bitcoin: Short at 95500-94800, stop loss at 96000+, target at 94000-93400, with potential observation at 92600;

Long at 93000-93800, stop loss at 92600-, target at 94500-95400.

- Ethereum: Short at 1820-1790, stop loss at 1860+, target at 1750-1720, with potential observation at 1680;

Long at 1730-1760, stop loss at 1680-, target at 1800-1830.

Last night, the market experienced a pullback. At the key points where the price of Bitcoin reached 933 and the price of Ethereum approached 1742, we promptly issued an exit signal to the team.

Subsequently, the market validated our prediction, entering a rebound mode and steadily advancing in a fluctuating upward manner.

As of now, Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed lost ground, with the price returning above the 950 mark; Ethereum also showed strong performance, rising above 1800, with a remarkably bright trend.

Continuing our judgment on the current market trend, today's operational strategy remains primarily focused on short positions.

In terms of specific points, Bitcoin can be shorted near the range of 952 - 958, with support levels to watch at 943, 938, and 933.

For Ethereum, it is recommended to set up short positions near 1823 - 1857, with target levels below looking at 1779 and 1751.

During operations, it is essential to strictly set stop-loss orders to guard against sudden market risks, grasp the rhythm of fluctuations, and achieve steady returns.

This morning, Bitcoin's trend showed a clear tendency of long-short game.

In the correction phase, the trading volume is hovering at a low level, indicating that the market is weak in its willingness to sell;

During the rebound, trading volume increased significantly and was continuous, confirming the continued influx of buying power.

This relationship between volume and price clearly conveys market signals: selling is weak, buying is strong, and the bullish dominance is stable.

After this round of adjustments, the risk of Bitcoin falling below the key support line has been further reduced, and the subsequent trend may be more inclined to fluctuate upward, which deserves close attention from investors.

4.28 Market Hotspots Sketch
1. Bitcoin Value Divergence: Spot price is 40% lower than energy costs, price is disconnected from mining costs, and valuation disputes are intensifying.

2. Strategy Makes a Comeback: Ranked 88th in U.S. market capitalization, business growth or expectations are attracting capital attention.

3. SEC Regulation Encountering Obstacles: The Trump factor pressures crypto reforms, and policy direction and pace are facing uncertainties.

4. Ethereum Expansion Controversy: Proposal to increase the gas limit by a hundred times over four years to alleviate congestion, but security risks remain unresolved.

5. GBTC Stands Out: Implied annual income exceeds $268 million, leading the Bitcoin investment product market.

6. SEC Strategy Adjustment: After a new leader, law enforcement shifts focus, and the balance of crypto regulation becomes a new focal point.

The world is closely watching the dollar's predicament, which is standing on the brink of macro devaluation. Ignoring the bottoming signals and continuing to decline will trigger a financial chain crisis.

Historical experience shows that the dollar index is difficult to maintain at high levels for a long time and will eventually fall into a devaluation channel, bringing macro opportunities to the commodity and investment markets.

However, opportunities and risks coexist in the commodity market: a mild global economic recession may lead to an explosion in demand, while a moderate to severe recession will result in a collapse in demand.

As long as a liquidity crisis does not occur, there is still room for dividends in the investment market.

The current predicament of the dollar, US stocks, and US bonds is similar to the collapse before 1980, with the risk of a triple whammy in stocks, bonds, and currencies intensifying.

The trend is clear; the macro devaluation of the dollar is irreversible, and the storm of reshaping the global economic order has already arrived.

How did Trump acquire the Mar-a-Lago estate worth $25 million for just $8 million? There are many intricacies involved.

Initially, Trump sent someone to gauge the seller's expectations, who quoted a price of $25 million.

Most people would start negotiating at this point, but Trump did not act so simply. He directly offered $15 million, and such a significant cut in price was naturally rejected by the seller. When one plan failed, Trump came up with another.

He turned around and bought a rundown plot of land next to Mar-a-Lago and then leaked news that he intended to build affordable housing there, even claiming he would bring in a group of brothers and the Latino community as residents.

Once this news spread, nearby property values were instantly impacted, and the previously stable real estate market was thrown into chaos.

Neighbors who were once confident in the value of their properties began to worry. At the same time, Trump initiated a series of 'collusion' operations regarding the acquisition of Mar-a-Lago.

His offers plummeted like a dive, each round lower than the last, from $14 million to $13 million, all the way down to $12 million.

The property fund holding Mar-a-Lago not only had to bear the high maintenance costs of the estate but also had to watch the purchase offers continuously decline, increasing their pressure day by day.

Finally, unable to withstand this dual pressure, the property fund's psychological defenses crumbled, and they actively approached Trump, asking him to acquire Mar-a-Lago.

At this point, Trump easily accepted at the low price of $8 million, slashing the original price of $25 million by more than half.

And what about the affordable housing plot used to 'stir the pot'? Trump also took that along with him.

As a result, the view from Mar-a-Lago became even more expansive, with better airflow, greatly enhancing both its feng shui and practical value.

Trump's series of operations, with their ruthless tactics and clever strategies, rightly earned him the title of 'King of Cutting Leeks', leaving one to marvel at his seasoned skills in business negotiations and transactions.

Trump announced that on May 22, he will host a dinner for $TRUMP holders at his golf club in Washington.

Eligibility for invitation requires being among the top 220 holders of $TRUMP from April 23 to May 12, with the top 25 also able to attend an exclusive reception and a VIP tour of the White House.

In light of this, before the counting deadline on May 12, $TRUMP is likely to remain relatively resilient.

Many people are purchasing $TRUMP specifically for the dinner, and there is insufficient selling pressure before the list is finalized.

However, once the ranking statistics are completed on May 12, the situation will be entirely different.

At that time, many who hold the currency solely for the dinner may sell off in large quantities, putting downward pressure on the coin's price.

Therefore, May 12 is likely to become a turning point for $TRUMP's market sentiment. Investors must closely monitor price fluctuations and cautiously adjust their positions around this timeframe.

Market Decline Creates Opportunities for Low Market Cap Tokens
When the market declines, low market cap tokens may welcome an explosive opportunity:
1. Emotion Driven: The sideways movement of large market cap tokens leads to a vacuum in market returns, prompting investors seeking profits to turn to high-potential low market cap projects;

2. Capital Concentration: In a risk-averse environment, capital tends to be conservative, making it easier to form a collective focus on a single popular target;

3. Screening Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to tokens with potential for secondary creation and alignment with cutting-edge concepts.

BTC 1 Hour Market Analysis
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, BTC is currently in a pullback phase looking for a support level, with a potential support range between $91,600 - $92,000.

Subsequently, pay attention to the bullish closing formation of the 1-hour candlestick to confirm the final price point.

Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategies
Recently positioned for short trades, although the market continues to rise, precise levels have allowed for short-term profits of a thousand points.

As the end of the month approaches, bullish news is fading, and bearish signals may be on the horizon.

From a technical perspective, both the daily and weekly charts are in an overbought state, which may become more apparent on Sunday afternoon.

$95,000 is a critical dividing line for bulls and bears, and Monday's movement is worth paying close attention to.

After breaking the high, prices have not continued to surge but instead linger at elevated levels, providing ample time for distribution.

Therefore, we firmly advocate a high short strategy, suggesting shorting around $95,500, with a target aimed at $88,000.

The calculation time for the TRUMP holding snapshot is from April 23, 2025, to May 12, 2025.

According to the current market trends, it seems that prices will not decline before the snapshot.

Although everyone is aware that there is a daily release of 500,000 units that the market needs to absorb, the temptation of "dining together" is simply too great, attracting investors to continue buying.

Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Shakes the Market
On April 25th, the Federal Reserve signaled a rate cut, leading to three consecutive gains in the three major U.S. stock indices, while prices of commodities like gold and crude oil also climbed.

The main reason for this rate cut is the slowing growth of the U.S. job market, along with a significant easing of inflationary pressures.

Previously, the Federal Reserve maintained high interest rates for 14 months to suppress inflation, but now the inflation rate has decreased from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.5%, nearing the 2% target.

The market response has been significant: corporate financing costs have decreased, benefiting expansion-oriented companies like tech stocks;

The U.S. dollar has weakened, gold prices have surpassed 3300, and expectations for crude oil demand have risen, with prices increasing by nearly 1%.

The rate cut lowers the cost of capital and boosts market optimism.

Why are VCs hesitant about Solana?
VCs may not dare to heavily invest in Solana.

Because its hotspots change rapidly, when new hotspots emerge, funds quickly withdraw from old projects and shift to new projects, resulting in projects often experiencing a 'one-wave flow', making it difficult to achieve sustainable growth.

From the perspective of market capitalization management and profitability, VCs need to maintain the stability of project market value, but achieving this goal in Solana is too costly.

In contrast, EVM-based public chains like BNB Chain and Base, although lacking natural buying pressure, also have less selling pressure, which is more conducive to insider capital control and maintaining market value stability.

In addition, the restrictions imposed by several leading exchanges on the listing channels for Solana are also an important factor for VCs' hesitation.

Futures Market Analysis The current futures market is in a liquidation phase, and Friday's surge has cleared the short liquidity above 95000, leaving only the dense long liquidation zone around 91500.

It is worth noting that the previously existing liquidity vacuum above the price has started to show sparse short positions, which poses a potential threat to long-term shorts.

If short liquidity continues to accumulate over the weekend, it may break through 96500 next week;

Conversely, if no new short positions are opened, the price may briefly reach a new high testing the key level of 96500, and then possibly pull back.

Currently, the battle between long and short positions is intense; the shorts have not completely collapsed, but the long sentiment is strong.

Price increases depend on the continuous opening of short positions to provide liquidity, while excessive leverage by longs weakens upward momentum.

Fortunately, the current distribution of long and short liquidation zones is reasonable, with average leverage rates being similar.