LuckyLion

Is today's airdrop ASRR a big deal?

Binance Alpha will launch Assisterr AI (ASRR) today, with trading scheduled for May 30, with specific times to be announced in the afternoon.

Technically, Assisterr AI runs on Solana, and its small language model (SLM) is very convenient for finance, healthcare, and Web3, allowing AI model NFT Evening creation without coding. The specific team members have not been disclosed yet, but the project is backed by both Binance and Bybit, which looks reliable.

In terms of pricing, the first batch of coins will be on the Alpha platform and KuCoin, and the initial price is still unknown. It is estimated that the threshold this time may be around 198 points, so if you have the opportunity, make the most of it; every bit counts.

$SOPH discovered a problem, the price on the same token chain is much higher than the spot price. A consistent brother was able to sell for 140U around 9:30, I just tried buying some spot to sell on the chain, but Binance doesn't allow withdrawals at all 😂

GROK's Prediction on SOON Airdrop: #币安Alpha上新 #Soon
The SOON project is a high-performance blockchain project based on Solana and Ethereum, aimed at making decentralized applications run faster and cheaper. It uses Solana's virtual machine and Optimistic Rollup technology, capable of processing 30,000 transactions per second, with fees under $0.01. Currently, it supports BNB Chain and Ethereum, with a total transaction volume exceeding 15 million and a locked value of $21.46 million.

Price Prediction:
Just launched (within 1 week): It may be between $0.2 and $0.5, and if speculation is strong, it could surge to $0.8, but be careful of a drop after a rise.
3-6 months: If the project develops well, the price could reach $0.3-$1.5; if not, it might drop to $0.1.
1-2 years later: If things go smoothly, it could rise to $1-$5; but if competition is too fierce, it might fall to $0.05.

Investment Advice: In the short term, you can play around a bit for quick profits, but the risk is high, so don’t invest too much. In the medium to long term, it depends on whether the project can attract more applications and users; for now, avoid going all in, and pay attention to risks, such as running away or market fluctuations.

#FTX赔付

【FTX's Billion Dollar Compensation Arrives: An Underestimated 'Liquidity Siphon' Experiment】
FTX officially confirms that the first round of compensation will begin on February 18, 2025, with an expected asset distribution of $14.7 to $16.5 billion to creditors. 98% of creditors will receive cash compensation in USD based on the cryptocurrency price at the time of bankruptcy in November 2022 (BTC ≈ $16,000), while creditors with claims over $50,000 will need to wait for subsequent batches.

▍On-Chain Detective Perspective (Avoiding Three Major Blind Spots in Market Consensus)
'Pseudo Incremental Funds' Trap
Most of the compensation funds have already been acquired at a discount by professional bankruptcy funds (such as Cherokee Acquisition purchasing at 32% face value), with less than 30% of hot money actually flowing into the market. There is also a need to be cautious of the remaining $680 million in FTT tokens within the FTX wallet, which has a circulating market value of only $870 million; unlocking these could trigger a death spiral.

Tax Black Hole Effect
U.S. creditors will need to pay capital gains tax on the compensation amount (considered as 'debt relief income'), with some accounts facing a combined tax rate exceeding 40%, which may force holders to sell other crypto assets to cover taxes.

Market Maker Arbitrage Window
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has seen a 27% surge in open contracts for Bitcoin futures, possibly rehearsing the long-short game after the compensation arrives—professional institutions are constructing a 'spot buy + futures hedge' combination to capitalize on retail investor sentiment fluctuations.

▍Regulatory Paradigm Revolution
This cash compensation replaces the return of physical tokens, effectively establishing a precedent for 'monetization of user assets during exchange bankruptcy.' In the future, this may compel CEXs to adopt a third-party custody model similar to securities brokers, resulting in a structural increase in platform compliance costs.

▍Soul-Searching Questions
① If the U.S. IRS classifies the compensation as 'unexpected income' rather than asset return, could this trigger large-scale tax audits?
② When the liquidation price during an exchange's bankruptcy is 10 times less than the current price, should regulators be required to retain some physical assets to hedge user losses?

(Dark line hint: Pay attention to the $147 million in MAPS tokens held by FTX, which has a circulating supply that only accounts for 0.8% of FDV)

Data Anchor Point: FTX's on-chain address has a remaining asset of $1.475 billion, including 20 types of long-tail tokens.

#阿根廷总统MEME币争议

On February 14, Argentine President Mille promoted the MEME coin $LIBRA on social media, saying it would support small and medium-sized enterprises. However, the market value of the token surged to $4.56 billion half an hour after it went online, and then plummeted by 94%, causing heavy losses to investors. The presidential palace subsequently deleted the tweet and launched an anti-corruption investigation, and the opposition pushed for impeachment on the grounds of "fraud".
The paradox of national sovereign credit and Meme coins
Mille implanted the political slogan "Viva La Libertad" (Viva La Libertad) into the token name, essentially trying to reshape the national economic narrative with encrypted assets. However, the project party completed the contract deployment and sell-off in only 3 hours, exposing that sovereign-backed projects are more risky than ordinary local dogs - when national credit becomes a harvesting tool, it may trigger a hidden collapse in sovereign debt ratings.
The regulatory vacuum of the Rug Pull scam
This incident reveals two blind spots in the regulation of the crypto market:
• Lack of celebrity responsibility definition: The US SEC only requires risk warnings for Trumpcoin, but as president, Milley promoted unaudited projects, and there is no precedent for accountability under existing international law;
• Out-of-control contract authority: 82% of tokens were initially tradable (only 20% for ordinary MEME coins), and the smart contract did not set a lock-up mechanism, allowing the project party to withdraw at zero cost.
When "decentralization" encounters "populism":
The essence of the Milley incident is the collision between crypto anarchism and the political strongman model - he tried to use MEME coins to bypass the traditional fiscal system to stimulate the economy, but it evolved into a national trust crisis due to the lack of a compliance framework. This may give rise to a new regulatory paradigm: "cooling-off period disclosure" and "income freezing mechanism" for the president's participation in crypto projects.
________________________________________
1. If the issuance of MEME coins by the state becomes a trend, do you think it should be forcibly linked to gold reserves or national debt credit?
2. When the president’s tweet becomes a signal of a surge in token prices, how can ordinary people distinguish between “policy dividends” and “political scams”?

#AI概念币强势反弹
AI coins rebounded violently! The three giants soared more than 40% in a single day. Is it too late to get on board now?

The data exploded💥
MOBY soared 47%: the market value of AI trading artifact MobyAI rushed to 47 million dollars in 3 days, and the chain showed that an institution swept 8 million coins overnight;
HOLO rose 32% in a straight line: Holozone, developed by the former Google team, just announced that it would make AR glasses interactive, and the pool locked volume tripled in 24 hours;
DeepSeek ecological riot: Guozi Software, Longruan Technology and other concept coins collectively hit the daily limit, and a brother's 50,000 U principal became 73,000 in one day.

Three driving forces behind it 🚀
Technological breakthrough: Huawei just announced full support for the DeepSeek model, 15 chip factories adapted overnight, and automobile and mobile phone giants lined up for access;
Policy warmth: Beijing and Shanghai invested 10 billion in AI medical care, and Mindray Medical's daily limit led the entire sector;
Fund migration: BTC sideways period, hot money poured into the AI ​​track, and a giant whale just transferred 20 million USDT to the AI ​​coin pool.

Teach you how to eat the fish body step by step🎯
Three factors for selecting coins:
Must be in the top 300 of Coingecko market value (to prevent zeroing)
The team has at least one MIT/Stanford background (see LinkedIn)
The token has actual consumption scenarios (such as MobyAI's transaction fee destruction)
Hedging posture:
50% of the position is charged to the leading AI coin, and 50% is used to buy BNB current account to eat HODLer airdrops (AI coins may be given in the next period)
Open an equivalent BTC contract short order to prevent the market from diving and being buried
Escape signal:
PancakeSwap has a single transaction of >100,000 U smashing the market
4-hour chart fell below the 20-day moving average
Blood and tears guide to avoid pits🚨
Yesterday someone charged a local dog, but the pool was drained by scientists in 10 minutes! Remember:
✅ Check whether the contract has been audited by Certik
✅ See if the coin holding address on DEXScreener is >5000
✅ The official website must have at least 3 development logs

#BNBChainMeme热潮 BNB chain Meme carnival continues! TST daily transaction volume exceeds 100 million, how can new players avoid pitfalls and get on board?

Data explosion💥
TST is killing like crazy: the "Tugou" TST (FourMeme platform launch) that has just been launched on the BNB chain has a daily transaction volume of 133 million US dollars yesterday, and the transaction fee alone has burned 1.33 million US dollars, directly pushing PancakeSwap to the top of the full-chain DEX transaction volume list1;
Old brand project resurrection: Shiba Inu coin Cheems, which has been silent for more than half a year, suddenly soared 25% in 24 hours, and the market value returned to 23 million US dollars. The chain shows that a giant whale swept 400 billion coins in one go4;
The official went to make trouble: BNB chain has just launched the fourth season Meme competition, with a prize pool of 200,000 US dollars + liquidity support. Now more than 30 new Meme coins emerge every day, and the game is heartbeat5.

Three pitfall avoidance guides 🚨
Look at the "blood relationship": give priority to projects with CZ forwarding/Binance Alpha included (such as TST), or projects like FourMeme, a native launch platform for the BNB chain, which can filter out at least 90% of the local dogs;
Sniper liquidity pool: Use DeFiLlama to check the contract pool, and don't touch it if the locked amount is less than 500,000 US dollars. Yesterday, a coin pool called MONKY was drained by scientists in 10 minutes;
Clock the time window: The first 30 minutes of the new coin are most likely to rise and fall sharply. Use PancakeSwap's "transaction simulation" function to test slippage in advance. I have seen someone buy 1,000U but only 300U actually arrived...

Opportunity capture 🕵️
Airdrop ambush: pay attention to ecological token holders such as Floki and TokenFi (such as Wise The Monkey project airdropped 35% of the tokens to FLOKI holders2). Next time, it may be the turn of AI+Meme concepts such as AICELL;
Hedging strategy: Use 10% of the position to chase the hot Meme, and at the same time open an equal value BNB/USDT contract short order to hedge, to prevent being buried by the market plunge.

#以太坊现货ETF连续净流入
Ethereum spot ETF funds have been flowing in for 18 consecutive days! Should we add positions or take profits now?

Data Hot List🔥
BlackRock swept 276 million in a single day: On February 4, ETHA's single-day inflow accounted for 89% of the entire market7, and the cumulative amount of funds attracted in the past month was 4.4 billion US dollars, equivalent to consuming 3% of ETH's circulating market value;
Retail investor channel opened: Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of more than 15 million US dollars for 7 consecutive days10, and small and medium-sized funds are accelerating their entry through compliant channels;
Grayscale's "stop bleeding" signal: its mini trust ETF had a single-week inflow of more than 70 million14, and the capital migration wave is coming to an end.

Three key cognitions💡
Institutional pricing power is enhanced: the current ETF holdings of ETH have reached 3.15%7, large buy orders are concentrated in the night market of the Chicago Stock Exchange, and the US market funds directly affect the volatility rhythm of the Asian market;
Staking income game: Although the current ETF has not yet opened the pledge, BlackRock has submitted a revised proposal to the SEC3. If it is passed, it is expected to bring an annualized gain of 4.8%, which is beneficial in the medium term;
Cyclic law verification: Historical data shows that when the weekly net inflow of the ETF exceeds 500 million, the average increase of ETH in the next 30 days is 27%8.

Operation strategy🚦
Short-term: Pay attention to the turning point of the decline of capital inflow (current daily average of 120 million → if it falls below 50 million, be vigilant);
Mid-term: When the 4-hour MACD golden cross + ETF weekly net inflow is greater than 1 billion, the callback is an opportunity to increase the position;
Long-term: Referring to the experience of Bitcoin ETF, the price center of the net inflow period in the first 6 months moved up by 58%6.
Undercurrents on the chain🌊
In the past three days, whales have withdrawn 230,000 ETH from exchanges, setting a new high for the year (about US$740 million)9. The derivatives funding rate has returned to neutral, and the market is not overheated yet.

(Tip: CPI data will be released on February 13, which may become a catalyst for short-term fluctuations)

What is the proportion of ETH in your current holdings? Will you choose to hold it indirectly through ETFs or buy coins directly?

The brothers came to receive the gift box
Password: FPQD0277JB

Come and pick up your gift box!