P喵加密

[This round of BTC bullish, don't dream of the alt season]

In the past two weeks, the overall market value of alts has fallen by another $234 billion, setting one of the largest absolute declines in recent years

This general decline highlights the weakness of the entire crypto circle. Except for the top mainstreams such as sol bnb eth, no one can maintain the market value

And in terms of percentage, the decline of alts ranks among the top in 1662 trading days

The market has completely split into BTC sol bnb eth and a few high-quality alts (ETH performs the worst)

Other alts play their own games and cut the leeks until there is nothing left

So Uncle Meow asked everyone to hold on to BTC bnb sol eth. In the future, when the market rebounds, they will also perform the best

[BTC enters the adjustment range, keep holding on]

In this cycle, since the losses of short-term holders are small, it makes more sense to focus on the trend of profit changes rather than the amount of position losses.
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During the previous consolidation phase at the $70,000 level, the market needed an additional two months to build new upward momentum.
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But now 25 years may be different from before
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The market is now more influenced by macro news, especially news related to the Trump administration and the possible recognition of BTC as a strategic reserve.
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Essentially, this could significantly accelerate the development of new trends, unlike previous macro cycles.

#BNBChainMeme热潮

【Long-term holding of BTC is the way】

In the current cycle

There was only one large-scale panic sell-off in September 2023

During the rest of the time, holders' profits have been greater than losses

So there will definitely be another bear market in the future, just not as severe

This circle won't allow everyone to make money
#BNBChainMeme热潮

[BTC has been hit, invest regularly]

CPI is lower than expected

It has been hit

Continue to invest regularly #币安上线LAYER

【Don’t believe in TST】

Don’t believe in TST, it’s going up again, and then it will fall directly.

Going up means distribution.

Those who bought are all shouting to leave, if you don’t run fast, you will be cut

It’s just a quick pass, it can’t change the market trend

$BTC $ETH $SOL

[BTC whale cost price 892k]

New whale realized price = $892,000, which is basically the strongest support level of the current callback

Because the big players who bought BTC at this price are unlikely to sell at a loss#币安上线LAYER

[Uncle Miao's B circle diary (February 11, 25)]

Currently, all indicators of escape top items are normal, retail investor sentiment has bottomed out, and P players continue to pvp on the chain.

Another boring day.

However, bnb's performance today is very eye-catching. Affected by the recent takeoff of local dogs and the withdrawal of SEC cases, Bnb is about to return to the high point before the Chinese New Year decline, which is why Uncle Miao always recommends sol btc bnb.

Looking at the sentiment of retail investors, everyone is basically in a state of panic. It seems that the decline during the Spring Festival directly drained the funds and mood of retail investors.

In fact, Uncle Miao believes that the next two weeks are opportunities to buy BTC sol on dips. In the next two months, the macro level is not bad. Net liquidity = Fed total assets - RRP - TGA

Uncle Miao explained it more directly:
In the beginning of 23, TGA, the second half is RRP, both are water release actions, BTC finally began to reverse
In 24, ETF, BTC bull market entered the mid-term
In the beginning of 25, TGA will continue, and the return of liquidity will roughly ferment in the second half of February. At that time, the influence of sol ETF will be superimposed. I believe that the overall high-quality cottage will have a good performance.

Of course, Uncle Miao maintains the view that the shock grinding is unchanged. The longer the grinding time, the more desperate the leeks are, and the more stable the bottom will be.

Holding BTC sol bnb is enough, building positions on dips, and selling and running away when everyone is enthusiastic, then this round of bull 🐂 is your cash machine.

Let me reiterate my predictions for the future top prices of mainstream tokens (conservative predictions):
Bitcoin 150K
eth 5000
bnb 1000
sol 600

[BTC retail investors remain in panic]
The current sentiment is in a state of panic. It seems that the decline during the Spring Festival directly drained the funds and mood of retail investors

In fact, the next two weeks are opportunities to buy BTC sol on dips

In the next two months, the macro level is not bad

Net liquidity = fed total assets - rrp - tga

Uncle Miao explained it more directly:

In the beginning of 23, tga, the second half is rrp, both are water release actions, BTC finally began to reverse

In 24, ETF, BTC bull market entered the mid-term

In the beginning of 25, tga continued

There is really no need to be too pessimistic#币安HODLer空投LAYER

【There are signs of a bit of an altcoin season】

Meow Uncle discovered

The altcoin season index has recently fallen to its lowest level since June 2023, with many of the so-called quality leaders already dropping back to the previous bear market lows.

In comparison to BTC, their declines have been quite significant.

However, in the past three months, the performance of XRP and LTC has actually been slightly better than that of BTC.

Moreover, BTC's dominance is over 60%, so Meow Uncle believes that in the coming months, altcoins with strong community support, high expectations, and undervalued relative to BTC prices should experience a rally.

【The Super Resistance Line of BTC】

There has always been significant resistance at the top price of BTC's future bubble, and the future top price will be suppressed by this resistance level, so this is the future top price of the big pie.

However, if we want to break through the new cycle high, we must exchange time for space, accumulate strength, and break through in one go.

The positions of the resistance lines for RSI, MFI, and BBW (log) Monthly are all similar, and both RSI and MFI also have support lines.

The next peak phase may occur when these three indicators touch the resistance line, at which point Uncle Meow will start looking bearish. #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？

[Uncle Miao's B-circle diary (February 10, 25)]

Brothers, after yesterday's TST market, today the golden dog on the chain continues to sprint, the car on the sol chain performs quite well, driving the entire sol chain to rebound, but the local dog on the bnb chain has cooled down on a large scale. It seems that the current myth of wealth creation is still sol.

If eth does not catch up, it is likely to be surpassed by the sol chain in the future.

Today's mood remains in a state of panic, and the transaction volume on the chain has declined. Although many cottages have rebounded, the transaction volume has never increased.

Therefore, Uncle Miao believes that the market in the next 10 days is likely to be dominated by shocks and grinding. The longer the grinding time, the more desperate the leeks will be, and the more stable the bottom will be. Everyone should still have expectations for the future!

Calmly hold btc sol bnb, build positions at lows, and sell and run when everyone is enthusiastic, then this round of bull 🐂 is your cash machine.

Although the price of Bitcoin has fallen, it is still fluctuating within 100,000. The market sentiment has also entered a panic. I believe that Bitcoin will lead its members to continue to hit a high point in the near future.

But remember! The next round of highs is the node when we sell!

Let the bullets fly for a while, no rush

Let me reiterate Uncle Miao’s future top expectations for mainstream TOKENs (conservative expectations):
Bitcoin 150K
Ether 5000
BNB 1000
SOL 600
#美国加征关税 #币安上线1000CHEEMS和TST

【The current growth of stablecoin supply is rapid!】

The scale of stablecoins is growing quickly, but the market has been stagnant; a new surge may be coming next.
#美国加征关税

【BTC bulls are buying the dip】

Yesterday, the average financing rate across the three major exchanges dropped to zero.

In this cycle, every time such an event occurs, it has led to a macro bull🐂 rebound.

Currently, we are still unclear how long it will consolidate at this level, but one thing is certain—during this consolidation phase, despite the bearish pressure, the price has never dropped below $89,000.

This indicates that bulls are buying at low prices around $90,000.

BTC BNB SOL ETH

[Uncle Miao's B Circle Diary (February 9, 25)]

Today (February 9, 25), the market saw the hot-selling product TST, and the overall market began to rebound, which was a good performance after a month of sharp declines and corrections.

Brothers should have expectations for the future!

As an old investor who has experienced two rounds of bull markets, Uncle Miao actually values ​​the long-term investment bonus brought by patience and waiting, rather than the obvious returns in the short term, which is the practice of P youngsters.

However, the degree of wealth effect in the market is one of the signs to test the top of the market. The higher the wealth effect, the more people will lose their composure, so most investors will lose money in this circle!

If you have experienced several rounds of bull markets, you will understand the importance of keeping a calm mind, and you will also know that the cyclical logic of the big pie will never change.

What we have to do is to clear out at the end of the cycle and enter at the beginning of the cycle, and the important sign of clearing out is "crazy emotions" + "everyone's good expectations for the future."

At present, the market has obviously not entered the "crazy" period. If you have done a good job of position management and preparation like Uncle Miao, all you can do now is to wait patiently for the comprehensive characteristics of the bull market top signal "crazy + super good expectations for the future" to appear.

Let the bullets fly for a while, rush for BTC sol bnb on dips, ETH's performance in this round is too poor and it is not worth rushing

Reiterate Uncle Miao's future top expectations for mainstream TOKENs (conservative expectations):
Big BTC 150K
Second BTC 5000
BNB 1000
SOL 600#币安上线1000CHEEMS和TST

[Btc liquidity is on the way, don't panic]

As of February 5, "unconventional measures" have released a total of 203 billion dollars to the Ministry of Finance, and the remaining amount of these unconventional measures is 133 billion dollars.

According to the consumption in the past 3-5 working days, the funds of these "unconventional measures" will be consumed around 20-24, that is, 2 weeks later, and TGA will be needed to support the subsequent expenses of the Ministry of Finance.

Starting from today, the next two weeks are good opportunities for bargain hunting.

For large capital targets, only BTC sol bnb is recommended

#币安上线1000CHEEMS和TST

【BTC latest news about the release of macro liquidity in the United States】

Everyone has become pessimistic recently, but Uncle Miao hopes that everyone can have confidence, because the release of macro liquidity in the United States is expected to come.

Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Treasury Department began to implement extraordinary measures due to the expiration of the debt ceiling. As of February 5, there was only $133 billion left in addition to TGA cash reserves.

Since the expiration of the debt ceiling, special measures have authorized a quota of $338 billion to support government operations. As of January 29, there was still $205 billion left in this quota, and on February 5, the Treasury Department stated that there was only $133 billion left.

Therefore, TGA cash reserves will soon be consumed in the macro sense.

It is expected to be around February 16. Don't worry, BTC spot friends, the market recovery is in progress. #币安上线1000CHEEMS和TST

[The biggest feature of this round of BTC bull market: too few new users]

This chart shows the ratio of new and old bitcoin supply (1w-6m/6m-12m), where high values ​​(purple peaks) indicate new users entering the market.

From 23 to now, the number of new users is very small, and it is completely incomparable with 17 and 21.

#非农就业数据来袭

【A local bottom for BTC is forming】

The short-term holders (STH) MVRV indicator for Bitcoin has dropped from $98,000 and 1.35 to the average level, indicating that short-term holders have been taking profits.

An STH MVRV above 1.30-1.35 typically indicates that the market is overheated, often leading to sell-offs.
A decline suggests that some STH have exited their positions.
Returning to the average level signifies the end of a local overheating phase.

After overheating and profit-taking, if demand remains unchanged, the market is expected to enter a sideways trend again. If the STH MVRV drops below 1.0, it indicates the formation of a local bottom.

In January 2024, dropping to the average level (similar to the current situation) would be enough to generate new upward momentum in the market.

Currently, market dynamics are heavily influenced by Trump's decisions. Without negative triggering factors, new momentum is forming now.

So far, the market has remained above $89,000, and there will be a significant buy-in from users once it drops to $90,000.

If the current bottom stays flat for a while longer, it is highly likely to enter a bullish phase.

Uncle Meow says that the quality tokens are only BTC, SOL, BNB; ETH is not currently considered high quality.

A Letter from V God to Satoshi Nakamoto

Dear Mr. Satoshi Nakamoto:
Sitting here in front of the window in Zug, Switzerland, looking at the street outside after the snow has just cleared, I suddenly want to converse with you, a pioneer I have never met. Ethereum is experiencing the most intense clash of values in its ten-year history, and as the founder, I feel like I am standing at the center of the storm, witnessing the struggle between idealism and utilitarianism.

The rift in the community pains me

When I witnessed foundation members receiving death threats in January, I suddenly understood the wisdom behind your choice to retreat. Those developers who once shouted, "code is law," are now endlessly debating for short-term gains; partners who once built the ecosystem together now see the prosperity of Layer 2 as a threat to the mainnet.

Ironically, when I criticized certain DeFi protocols for devolving into "Ponzi casinos," I was accused of "betraying the original intention"—but isn’t the true original intention to create a world computer that embodies a new paradigm of human collaboration?

Sticking to principles amid technical dilemmas

Your ingenious use of the UTXO model to solve the double-spending problem has always guided my thinking. Now we seek a balance between ZK-Rollup and OP-Rollup, doubling the Blob capacity through the Pectra upgrade, each step feels like building a bridge on the edge of a cliff. Recently, some questioned the foundation's sale of ETH, but do they not see that we are investing the proceeds into DankSharding research?

As the Verkle tree compresses node requirements to below 100GB, and as cross-chain bridge delays shrink from hours to seconds, I believe these silent engineering breakthroughs will eventually speak.

Deeper concerns lie in culture

The Bitcoin community maintains an admirable discipline, while Ethereum seems to have lost its way in the celebration of "financial Legos." Some venture capitalists tout that "KOL casinos" represent the best PMF, which has made me contemplate retreating several times.

But we must not forget that ERC-4337 account abstraction allows African farmers to use fingerprint wallets, and zero-knowledge proofs are protecting journalists' sources—this is what blockchain should look like.

Revisiting the vision in your 2008 white paper at this moment, I suddenly realize we stand at the same crossroads. You built the cornerstone of trust with cryptography, while we are trying to expand collaboration dimensions with smart contracts. Perhaps, as you said, the true revolution lies not in technical parameters, but in the consensus flowing among millions of nodes.

#非农就业数据来袭

[There will be no more general rise in the alt season in the currency circle]

Note that Uncle Miao is talking about the general rise in the alt season in 2021, which will not appear again, but a small number of high-quality alt seasons still have considerable room for performance
(sol bnb).

Now the entire circle has basically fallen into the trap of "narrative" and "storytelling", and does not consider the real project landing at all. A large number of products have become empty shells and lack real market value.

None of the project parties really want to implement blockchain technology, but just whitewash the operating data, such as letting KOL stand on the platform and falsify the back-end user data. Even a project that does not even have a business model is blowing "narrative" every day.

Currently, 90% of the circle does not have products that end users can use directly, so there are no real users, and falsification has become their only way out.

If you have to ask, then the project party will say that I am for developers/ecological construction takes time; if you ask again, where is your code, you will say that I am in devnet internal testing.

The garbage altcoin market value bubble that has been piled up through "storytelling" in the past two years was easily punctured in the recent Bitcoin correction, and a plunge of 80% has become the norm.

In such a big environment, when all project parties are still obsessed with "storytelling".

A general rise in altcoin season is impossible! ! The only projects worth holding now are BTC ETH Sol BNB! #币安上线BERA