峰哥带单日记
公众号：【峰哥带单日记】 深耕加密货币现货合约交易领域多年，擅长运用波段交易、趋势交易等多元化策略，精准掌握市场动态。
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从 SOL 的技术面走势与市场联动性来看，明天大概率会呈现震荡偏强的格局，整体以区间内波动为主，难有明显单边行情。
当前 SOL 价格定格在 169.59，恰好处于短期均线 MA7（167.94）上方，且 MA7 与 MA30 两条均线均保持向上发散的态势，短期支撑力度较为稳固，为价格提供了一定的向上缓冲空间。
回顾近期走势，SOL 曾冲高至 169 附近后出现小幅回落，从当前格局来看，160 至 175 区间构成短期阻力带，而下方支撑则集中在 165 至 178 附近，这个区间也是接下来多空博弈的核心区域。
成交量方面，相比前期冲高时的活跃状态明显收缩，这一信号说明当前市场多空双方分歧较小，暂时没有形成明显的阵营对立，但同时也反映出缺乏强劲的单边推动动能，资金活跃度有所降温。
尽管均线系统仍保持多头排列，为价格上行持续提供支撑，但短期成交量的收缩导致资金活跃度下降，这在一定程度上限制了涨幅空间，难以支撑 SOL 快速突破关键阻力位。
综合来看，明天 SOL 大概率会在 165 至 178 区间内震荡运行。若价格能突破 169 的短期压力位，后续有望进一步测试 178 的阻力；反之，若不慎失守 168 的支撑关口，则可能向下回踩 186 附近的关键支撑位，需警惕短期回调风险。#美国ADP数据超预期
当前 SOL 价格定格在 169.59，恰好处于短期均线 MA7（167.94）上方，且 MA7 与 MA30 两条均线均保持向上发散的态势，短期支撑力度较为稳固，为价格提供了一定的向上缓冲空间。
回顾近期走势，SOL 曾冲高至 169 附近后出现小幅回落，从当前格局来看，160 至 175 区间构成短期阻力带，而下方支撑则集中在 165 至 178 附近，这个区间也是接下来多空博弈的核心区域。
成交量方面，相比前期冲高时的活跃状态明显收缩，这一信号说明当前市场多空双方分歧较小，暂时没有形成明显的阵营对立，但同时也反映出缺乏强劲的单边推动动能，资金活跃度有所降温。
尽管均线系统仍保持多头排列，为价格上行持续提供支撑，但短期成交量的收缩导致资金活跃度下降，这在一定程度上限制了涨幅空间，难以支撑 SOL 快速突破关键阻力位。
综合来看，明天 SOL 大概率会在 165 至 178 区间内震荡运行。若价格能突破 169 的短期压力位，后续有望进一步测试 178 的阻力；反之，若不慎失守 168 的支撑关口，则可能向下回踩 186 附近的关键支撑位，需警惕短期回调风险。#美国ADP数据超预期
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Every penny you lose in the crypto world comes from two words: obsession.
Obsession earns a stable 0.5% every day, but misses out on 10 times the market;
Obsession has a perfect win rate but dares not place heavy bets, watching opportunities slip away;
Obsession of "never retracing" leads to getting washed out and only watching the coin price soar.
The crypto world is not a vegetable market; you can't get rich by "picking up some pocket money";
This is a battleground, and real profits have always resulted from "big opportunities + daring to go heavy".
Some people rely on ZEC to leap from 30U to 1000U for wealth transition;
Some catch BTC at the bottom of each cycle, multiplying their assets a hundredfold in three years;
It's not that they are lucky; they understand one principle:
The core of profit in the crypto world is "exchanging small risks for large rewards".
Stop getting tangled up in daily ups and downs, and stop being PUA'd by "stable profits";
Learn to wait for opportunities: spend 90% of your time in hibernation and 10% of your time striking heavily;
Learn to endure volatility: accepting reasonable retracement is what you deserve for the subsequent surge;
Learn to discern truth from falsehood: avoid the trap of calls, focus on trends, structures, and capital flows.
The crypto world is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is "the mindset to give up small profits" and "the courage to seize big opportunities".
When the next 10x coin appears, will you continue to spin in small profits, or will you dare to go heavy and catch it?
True profit-makers in the crypto world are all waiting for certainty, then all in to change their lives.#美国ADP数据超预期
Obsession earns a stable 0.5% every day, but misses out on 10 times the market;
Obsession has a perfect win rate but dares not place heavy bets, watching opportunities slip away;
Obsession of "never retracing" leads to getting washed out and only watching the coin price soar.
The crypto world is not a vegetable market; you can't get rich by "picking up some pocket money";
This is a battleground, and real profits have always resulted from "big opportunities + daring to go heavy".
Some people rely on ZEC to leap from 30U to 1000U for wealth transition;
Some catch BTC at the bottom of each cycle, multiplying their assets a hundredfold in three years;
It's not that they are lucky; they understand one principle:
The core of profit in the crypto world is "exchanging small risks for large rewards".
Stop getting tangled up in daily ups and downs, and stop being PUA'd by "stable profits";
Learn to wait for opportunities: spend 90% of your time in hibernation and 10% of your time striking heavily;
Learn to endure volatility: accepting reasonable retracement is what you deserve for the subsequent surge;
Learn to discern truth from falsehood: avoid the trap of calls, focus on trends, structures, and capital flows.
The crypto world is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is "the mindset to give up small profits" and "the courage to seize big opportunities".
When the next 10x coin appears, will you continue to spin in small profits, or will you dare to go heavy and catch it?
True profit-makers in the crypto world are all waiting for certainty, then all in to change their lives.#美国ADP数据超预期
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The Deadliest Illusion in Trading: Stable Profits Are Destroying 80% of Traders
They always elevate stable profits to the ultimate goal of trading, but I have witnessed it crush the ambitions of 80% of traders. When 'stability' becomes an obsession ingrained in your bones, your account will no longer have the possibility of a breakthrough, only able to spin in a cycle of mediocrity.
1 Traders bound by the 'stability curse'
Old Zhang, whom I met in 2019, is the most loyal follower of 'stable profits'. He is solely focused on achieving a perfect equity curve, only taking trades with a win rate of 90%, always tightly controlling his position at 2%, and stopping immediately after earning 0.5% each day. Three years have passed, and he is indeed still in the market, but he has long lost his initial drive, and even his courage to break through has been worn away.
1 Traders bound by the 'stability curse'
Old Zhang, whom I met in 2019, is the most loyal follower of 'stable profits'. He is solely focused on achieving a perfect equity curve, only taking trades with a win rate of 90%, always tightly controlling his position at 2%, and stopping immediately after earning 0.5% each day. Three years have passed, and he is indeed still in the market, but he has long lost his initial drive, and even his courage to break through has been worn away.
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币圈集体暴涨潮来袭，ZEC 还能做空吗？答案藏在这
今日凌晨起，加密货币市场迎来全面反弹热潮，背后的核心导火索是美国达成相关协议，结束了持续四十天的政府停摆。受这一利好消息刺激，比特币，以太坊等主流币种纷纷大幅拉升，市场反应既迅速又猛烈。
像 ZEC 和 ICP 这类小币种，由于前一日暴跌接近百分之三十，跌幅已然过大，我们昨天就已经明确提示，它们大概率会出现短线反弹行情。当时建议投资者及时止盈离场，耐心等待反弹后再考虑做空操作。如今来看，这波反弹行情果然如期上演。
当前需要重点关注 ZEC 是否会形成大型双顶形态，比如当价格反弹至七百美元附近时，或许会是理想的做空时机。一旦双顶形态确认形成，后续的下跌趋势可能会更为顺畅。不过有一点需要特别注意，这类高波动性的土狗币风险极高，建议投资者仅采用低倍杠杆操作，以此避免爆仓风险。通常情况下，这类币种的市场热度会在几周内逐渐冷却，价格也会随之回落。#加密市场观察
今日凌晨起，加密货币市场迎来全面反弹热潮，背后的核心导火索是美国达成相关协议，结束了持续四十天的政府停摆。受这一利好消息刺激，比特币，以太坊等主流币种纷纷大幅拉升，市场反应既迅速又猛烈。
像 ZEC 和 ICP 这类小币种，由于前一日暴跌接近百分之三十，跌幅已然过大，我们昨天就已经明确提示，它们大概率会出现短线反弹行情。当时建议投资者及时止盈离场，耐心等待反弹后再考虑做空操作。如今来看，这波反弹行情果然如期上演。
当前需要重点关注 ZEC 是否会形成大型双顶形态，比如当价格反弹至七百美元附近时，或许会是理想的做空时机。一旦双顶形态确认形成，后续的下跌趋势可能会更为顺畅。不过有一点需要特别注意，这类高波动性的土狗币风险极高，建议投资者仅采用低倍杠杆操作，以此避免爆仓风险。通常情况下，这类币种的市场热度会在几周内逐渐冷却，价格也会随之回落。#加密市场观察
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Government Shutdown Temporarily Resolved, Democrats Engage in Internal Infighting! Behind the "Betrayal" and Blame Game, the Systemic Collapse of American Democracy
Just as the shadow of the government shutdown began to show signs of light, divisions have added a more absurd footnote to this "political farce". On November 10, the procedural agreement passed by the Senate temporarily restarted the government, but it ignited a firestorm within the Democratic Party — from accusations of "betrayal" and "surrender" to cries of "fighting for healthcare", these internal differences are far more ironic than the bipartisan struggle and reveal the structural crisis of the American democratic governance system.
Shutdown agreement: a "democratic trap" under stopgap measures.
This agreement is essentially a typical American political compromise: providing full-year funding for departments such as Agriculture and Veterans Affairs, while other agencies are funded only until January 30, in exchange for restarting the government contingent on a future vote to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. On the surface, it appears that both parties are "giving a little", but in reality, it merely delays the contradictions to the next point. The internal rift within the Democratic Party precisely exposes the facade of "intra-party consensus" — the transaction between eight centrist lawmakers and the Republicans and the White House is viewed by their party colleagues as a "betrayal" of healthcare reform. This division is not merely a simple policy dispute but a difficult struggle for the Democratic Party between "electoral politics" and "ideology".
Shutdown agreement: a "democratic trap" under stopgap measures.
This agreement is essentially a typical American political compromise: providing full-year funding for departments such as Agriculture and Veterans Affairs, while other agencies are funded only until January 30, in exchange for restarting the government contingent on a future vote to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. On the surface, it appears that both parties are "giving a little", but in reality, it merely delays the contradictions to the next point. The internal rift within the Democratic Party precisely exposes the facade of "intra-party consensus" — the transaction between eight centrist lawmakers and the Republicans and the White House is viewed by their party colleagues as a "betrayal" of healthcare reform. This division is not merely a simple policy dispute but a difficult struggle for the Democratic Party between "electoral politics" and "ideology".
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I didn't expect Brother Sun to quietly layout Ethereum recently, with the public wallet's ETH holdings already reaching 534 million USD.
Sun Yuchen has just completed a large staking operation, staking Ethereum worth over 150 million USD.
At the same time, he also withdrew 154.5 million USD worth of ETH from the AAVE wallet, totaling 45,000 coins, and then deposited all of it into the Lido Staking platform.
Currently, it appears that the public wallet's ETH holdings have reached a market value of 534 million USD, a figure that even surpasses the market value of the TRX he holds, which is also valued at 519 million USD.
Does Brother Sun's heavy investment in ETH indicate that there will be major movements in Ethereum in the future?
Sun Yuchen has just completed a large staking operation, staking Ethereum worth over 150 million USD.
At the same time, he also withdrew 154.5 million USD worth of ETH from the AAVE wallet, totaling 45,000 coins, and then deposited all of it into the Lido Staking platform.
Currently, it appears that the public wallet's ETH holdings have reached a market value of 534 million USD, a figure that even surpasses the market value of the TRX he holds, which is also valued at 519 million USD.
Does Brother Sun's heavy investment in ETH indicate that there will be major movements in Ethereum in the future?
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U.S. Money Wave + Whale Endorsement: BTC Aiming for 250,000 U, Who Will Be the Next Hundredfold Coin Among ZEC, XMR, DASH?
The end of the U.S. shutdown has brought a wave of money, with Bitcoin aiming for two hundred fifty thousand U, ZEC targeting one thousand U per coin, and the ultimate goal being to hit ten thousand U per coin.
This wave is simply a rhythm of picking up money while lying down.
Special reminder.
This statement was not made by me, but rather by the super whale Arthur, who is even more formidable than BNB founder CZ.
As early as when ZEC was only worth thirty U per coin, Arthur boldly predicted it would rise to ten thousand U.
At that time, many people scoffed and were unwilling to believe it, but now the price of ZEC has skyrocketed and is about to reach Arthur's first target of one thousand U per coin.
This wave is simply a rhythm of picking up money while lying down.
Special reminder.
This statement was not made by me, but rather by the super whale Arthur, who is even more formidable than BNB founder CZ.
As early as when ZEC was only worth thirty U per coin, Arthur boldly predicted it would rise to ten thousand U.
At that time, many people scoffed and were unwilling to believe it, but now the price of ZEC has skyrocketed and is about to reach Arthur's first target of one thousand U per coin.
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日线级别：反弹结构成型，关键阻力逐步上移
上周大饼周线收出长下影线，直观反映出下方存在强劲买盘支撑。目前价格仍处于布林带下轨附近，本周整体呈现明确反弹态势，核心看点集中在能否有效站稳 M 顶颈线位置。
昨日日线收出一根带下影线的大阳线，成功突破矩形整理区间下沿，反弹结构正式确立。当前日线级别阻力位从低到高依次为 107500，108900 和 110500，分别对应 M 顶颈线，FVG 缺口以及下行趋势线压力。
指标方面，日线 MACD 和 RSI 同步向好，显示反弹动能仍在持续释放，后续需重点关注价格在关键阻力区间的表现，能否突破将直接影响反弹延续性。
四小时级别：上升通道开启，多空分歧聚焦 106500
四小时级别来看，大饼已经突破 W 底颈线，同时同步上破下降通道，新的上升通道结构正式形成。目前价格正测试通道上轨与 M 顶颈线重合的压力位 106500，这一位置的突破情况至关重要。
若能有效站稳 106500，下一目标将看向 108800 的下降趋势线压制，随后是 111200 的起跌点压力，进一步则是 115000 的日线级别颈线强压。
若 106500 压力区持续受阻，需警惕本轮反弹仅为跌破 M 顶后的反抽修正。一旦价格跌破当前上升通道下轨，行情可能演变为下跌旗形结构，进而开启新一轮回调。
指标上，四小时 MACD 与 RSI 均已修复至偏强区域，RSI 需留意超买风险，但整体状态仍支持短期反弹延续。
日内操作建议
短线在 104500 至 105500 附近可布局多单，目标看向 107000 至 107500 区间。短线在 111000 至 112000 附近可布局空单，目标看向 109000 至 108000 区间。#隐私币生态普涨
上周大饼周线收出长下影线，直观反映出下方存在强劲买盘支撑。目前价格仍处于布林带下轨附近，本周整体呈现明确反弹态势，核心看点集中在能否有效站稳 M 顶颈线位置。
昨日日线收出一根带下影线的大阳线，成功突破矩形整理区间下沿，反弹结构正式确立。当前日线级别阻力位从低到高依次为 107500，108900 和 110500，分别对应 M 顶颈线，FVG 缺口以及下行趋势线压力。
指标方面，日线 MACD 和 RSI 同步向好，显示反弹动能仍在持续释放，后续需重点关注价格在关键阻力区间的表现，能否突破将直接影响反弹延续性。
四小时级别：上升通道开启，多空分歧聚焦 106500
四小时级别来看，大饼已经突破 W 底颈线，同时同步上破下降通道，新的上升通道结构正式形成。目前价格正测试通道上轨与 M 顶颈线重合的压力位 106500，这一位置的突破情况至关重要。
若能有效站稳 106500，下一目标将看向 108800 的下降趋势线压制，随后是 111200 的起跌点压力，进一步则是 115000 的日线级别颈线强压。
若 106500 压力区持续受阻，需警惕本轮反弹仅为跌破 M 顶后的反抽修正。一旦价格跌破当前上升通道下轨，行情可能演变为下跌旗形结构，进而开启新一轮回调。
指标上，四小时 MACD 与 RSI 均已修复至偏强区域，RSI 需留意超买风险，但整体状态仍支持短期反弹延续。
日内操作建议
短线在 104500 至 105500 附近可布局多单，目标看向 107000 至 107500 区间。短线在 111000 至 112000 附近可布局空单，目标看向 109000 至 108000 区间。#隐私币生态普涨
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币圈新人避坑指南：14 个常见套路，看懂少走三年弯路
币圈里藏着不少专门针对新人的套路和陷阱，稍有不慎就可能被割韭菜，这些实战总结的经验一定要记牢。
1 亚洲市场的反弹大多集中在早上八点到十点，而欧美市场的砸盘往往发生在凌晨三点到五点。这个时间段亚洲投资者大多已经入睡，主力就是瞄准这个时机收割亚盘散户。所以白天看到行情上涨时别盲目追高，深夜里欧美资金很可能突然砸盘。
2 关键支撑位长时间横盘墨迹，其实越是这样越可能是陷阱。支撑位墨迹许久后的拉盘，多半是主力设下的诱多圈套。真正强劲的支撑位通常会快速插针企稳，而不是给散户留出充足的上车时间。
3 盘面出现向下插针走势，往往是不错的买入信号。反之向上插针出现时，就要警惕风险考虑卖出，这是市场传递的重要信号。
4 市场上人人都知道的利好消息，基本算不上真正的利好。那些不为人知的潜在利好，主力往往会提前布局拉盘。利好消息大多是提前炒作，等到正式落地的当天，盘面大概率会出现插针或者直接砸盘的情况。
5 遇到极端行情时，大家普遍认可的支撑位往往起不到支撑作用。同样大家都关注的压力位，也不再是真正的压力位，这些关键位置其实都是主力挖好的坑，就等散户往里跳。
6 当某个项目或币种在各类社群里被疯狂推崇时，一定要提高警惕。这种被过度炒作的币种，要么已经处在顶部位置，要么就是国人操盘的韭菜盘，背后往往是有人拿了推广费在刻意宣传。
7 如果发现有人在持续使劲推荐某个币种，千万不要跟风买入。这类被刻意推广的币种，后续大概率会出现大幅下跌，跌得让你怀疑人生，毕竟推广的人都是拿了好处费的。
8 要是你重仓持有某个币种，尤其是山寨币，那么爆仓的风险会大大增加。主力的定点清理名单里，往往就有重仓散户的身影，很容易被针对性收割。
9 当你的多单或者空单设置止损后，行情往往会朝着相反方向猛涨或猛跌。主力就是要先把你洗下车，才会正式启动行情，不清理掉止损盘绝不会轻易罢休。
10 慢涨的行情才是真正的牛市走势，那种短期猛涨的行情，通常意味着已经接近顶部。主力只有通过猛涨才能点燃散户的情绪，吸引不明真相的散户进来接盘。
11 越是看起来容易做空的价格位置，主力越会让你感到难受。他们会在你做空的价位附近反复横盘或者插针，就是不想让你舒舒服服地做空盈利。
12 你越是不敢入场的位置，往往越是绝佳的交易机会。而那些让你觉得肯定能赚钱、能吃肉的位置，其实都是主力精心设计的陷阱，就等你入局。
13 当市场上所有人都在喊牛市来了的时候，就是你该考虑减仓的时候。市场共识高度一致的时刻，往往也是风险即将爆发的节点，逆向思维在这里尤为重要。
14 熊市来临之前，市场一定会经历一段集体高潮的阶段。山寨币会在短短几天内迎来疯狂拉升，但这样的上涨持续不了多久，拉完之后必然会出现猛烈的下跌。
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凌晨大饼从103290强势拉回106666，以太同步自3500反弹至3658，四小时级别浪型已破，起跌点被击穿，通道悄然上移，多头蓄势，回撤只为更好上攻。
震荡修复中，关键空间未破；下行行情短促，反弹趋势延续。顺势而为不逆势，回撤即是接多点，让利润自然奔跑。
震荡修复中，关键空间未破；下行行情短促，反弹趋势延续。顺势而为不逆势，回撤即是接多点，让利润自然奔跑。
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From 0.8U to 0.3U and then rebounding: The truth behind AR's washout, understand it to lose less than a million
Having been in the cryptocurrency circle for eight years, I have seen too many retail investors complain whenever the coin price drops, always feeling that the major player is scheming to take away their little bits of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or ZEC. But in fact, no one really cares about your little scattered chips. The core purpose of a washout is to eliminate the 'unstable factors' in the market to pave the way for a smoother rise afterward.
I once tracked a small cryptocurrency called AR throughout, with an initial price of 0.8U and a total circulation of 8 million coins, where retail investors held nearly 70% of the positions. The major player quietly accumulated 2.5 million chips at the bottom but delayed any upward movement. The logic behind this is simple: if the price is pushed directly to 1.2U, those early low-cost retail investors will definitely concentrate on selling, and the large selling pressure will cause the rise to fail. Without a unified expectation of an increase, it cannot last long.
I once tracked a small cryptocurrency called AR throughout, with an initial price of 0.8U and a total circulation of 8 million coins, where retail investors held nearly 70% of the positions. The major player quietly accumulated 2.5 million chips at the bottom but delayed any upward movement. The logic behind this is simple: if the price is pushed directly to 1.2U, those early low-cost retail investors will definitely concentrate on selling, and the large selling pressure will cause the rise to fail. Without a unified expectation of an increase, it cannot last long.
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When Polymarket's data pegged the probability of the U.S. government shutdown ending between November 8 and November 11 at 66%, the numbers behind this were far from a simple probability game; they were a concentrated reflection of the political wrestling in the U.S., institutional flaws, and market sentiment.
On the surface, this is yet another tug-of-war between the Democrats and Republicans over the fiscal budget. The threat of a government shutdown is like a recurring “political drama” that unfolds annually, with lawmakers arguing fiercely for the interests of their respective camps in front of the cameras, while ordinary citizens and the market pay the price for this “artificially created crisis.” The probability changes on Polymarket resemble the “real-time odds” that the market assigns to this political game — the high probability of 66% between November 8 and November 11 reflects expectations for a short-term compromise; while the cliff-like drop in probabilities after November 12 subtly hints at concerns over the persistence of political deadlock.
However, digging deeper, this is actually a microcosm of the institutional dilemma under the U.S. two-party system. The two parties, driven by ideological and electoral interests, have turned fiscal issues into bargaining chips, treating the basic need for the government to function normally as “hostages” in negotiations. This political ecology of “crisis as normal” not only erodes public trust in the political system but also continuously diminishes the efficiency of governance in the U.S. through repeated internal strife.
As a prediction market, Polymarket's popularity of data is also quite meaningful. It reflects that when traditional information channels struggle to penetrate the political fog, the market attempts to find certainty among chaotic political signals by voting with “real money.” By betting on probabilities, people are not only making judgments about political directions, but also expressing their emotions towards uncertainty — as politics increasingly resembles a gambling game, the public can only respond by “participating in the gamble.”
However, even if the government shutdown between November 8 and November 11 ends as predicted, it would only be a temporary breather. As long as the foundational opposition between the two parties remains unchanged and the systemic contradictions in finance and governance are unresolved, the countdown to the next “shutdown crisis” will quietly begin again. Polymarket's probability curve can predict the end time of one crisis, but it cannot forecast the end point of the U.S. political dilemma — perhaps this is the more alarming long-term concern than the shutdown itself. #隐私币生态普涨
On the surface, this is yet another tug-of-war between the Democrats and Republicans over the fiscal budget. The threat of a government shutdown is like a recurring “political drama” that unfolds annually, with lawmakers arguing fiercely for the interests of their respective camps in front of the cameras, while ordinary citizens and the market pay the price for this “artificially created crisis.” The probability changes on Polymarket resemble the “real-time odds” that the market assigns to this political game — the high probability of 66% between November 8 and November 11 reflects expectations for a short-term compromise; while the cliff-like drop in probabilities after November 12 subtly hints at concerns over the persistence of political deadlock.
However, digging deeper, this is actually a microcosm of the institutional dilemma under the U.S. two-party system. The two parties, driven by ideological and electoral interests, have turned fiscal issues into bargaining chips, treating the basic need for the government to function normally as “hostages” in negotiations. This political ecology of “crisis as normal” not only erodes public trust in the political system but also continuously diminishes the efficiency of governance in the U.S. through repeated internal strife.
As a prediction market, Polymarket's popularity of data is also quite meaningful. It reflects that when traditional information channels struggle to penetrate the political fog, the market attempts to find certainty among chaotic political signals by voting with “real money.” By betting on probabilities, people are not only making judgments about political directions, but also expressing their emotions towards uncertainty — as politics increasingly resembles a gambling game, the public can only respond by “participating in the gamble.”
However, even if the government shutdown between November 8 and November 11 ends as predicted, it would only be a temporary breather. As long as the foundational opposition between the two parties remains unchanged and the systemic contradictions in finance and governance are unresolved, the countdown to the next “shutdown crisis” will quietly begin again. Polymarket's probability curve can predict the end time of one crisis, but it cannot forecast the end point of the U.S. political dilemma — perhaps this is the more alarming long-term concern than the shutdown itself. #隐私币生态普涨
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Core Principles of the Strategy
The core of the Banmu Summer strategy is to look for opportunities of continuous divergence in the MACD indicator. Specifically:
Continuous: Refers to the situation where the MACD shows a peak above the zero line and does not drop below the zero line before rising again to form a new peak. Divergence: Refers to the situation where the peaks of the MACD are gradually decreasing, but the price is gradually increasing (top divergence), or where the troughs of the MACD are gradually increasing, but the price is gradually decreasing (bottom divergence).
Key Operational Points
Parameter Adjustment: Change the default MACD parameters (12,26,9) to (13,34,9). Signal Recognition: It is necessary to look for continuous divergences with significant differences between peaks and troughs, rather than opening positions for all divergences. Trading Direction: Short when there is a top divergence, and go long when there is a bottom divergence. Stop Loss Setting: Set stop loss based on the ATR (Average True Range) with a parameter of 13.
Strategy Features and Precautions
High Win Rate: It is claimed that this strategy has a win rate exceeding 90% in 100 consecutive trades. Low Trading Frequency: Due to strict opening conditions, the actual number of trades is relatively low. Cautious Verification Needed: The built-in MACD indicator on the platform may not have divergence identification capabilities, making back-testing verification inconvenient. Risk Warning: Any trading strategy carries risks and should be used cautiously in conjunction with one’s own situation; do not blindly follow the trend.
The MACD continuous divergence strategy of Banmu Summer provides a method for capturing market reversal signals, with its core lying in the precise identification of MACD indicator patterns. Although this strategy is described as having a high win rate, investors should fully understand its principles before application, verify through historical data, and strictly control risks to avoid over-trading. #币安合约实盘
The core of the Banmu Summer strategy is to look for opportunities of continuous divergence in the MACD indicator. Specifically:
Continuous: Refers to the situation where the MACD shows a peak above the zero line and does not drop below the zero line before rising again to form a new peak. Divergence: Refers to the situation where the peaks of the MACD are gradually decreasing, but the price is gradually increasing (top divergence), or where the troughs of the MACD are gradually increasing, but the price is gradually decreasing (bottom divergence).
Key Operational Points
Parameter Adjustment: Change the default MACD parameters (12,26,9) to (13,34,9). Signal Recognition: It is necessary to look for continuous divergences with significant differences between peaks and troughs, rather than opening positions for all divergences. Trading Direction: Short when there is a top divergence, and go long when there is a bottom divergence. Stop Loss Setting: Set stop loss based on the ATR (Average True Range) with a parameter of 13.
Strategy Features and Precautions
High Win Rate: It is claimed that this strategy has a win rate exceeding 90% in 100 consecutive trades. Low Trading Frequency: Due to strict opening conditions, the actual number of trades is relatively low. Cautious Verification Needed: The built-in MACD indicator on the platform may not have divergence identification capabilities, making back-testing verification inconvenient. Risk Warning: Any trading strategy carries risks and should be used cautiously in conjunction with one’s own situation; do not blindly follow the trend.
The MACD continuous divergence strategy of Banmu Summer provides a method for capturing market reversal signals, with its core lying in the precise identification of MACD indicator patterns. Although this strategy is described as having a high win rate, investors should fully understand its principles before application, verify through historical data, and strictly control risks to avoid over-trading. #币安合约实盘
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Survival Guide in the Cryptocurrency World: The Transformation Journey from Frenzy to Rationality
1. The Truth of the Market: The Myth of Getting Rich and the Harsh Reality
There are indeed legendary stories in the cryptocurrency world of turning '100,000 into millions', but more often it is the harsh reality of 'zero overnight'. When you are obsessed with the fantasy of getting rich, please remember:
Leveraged trading is like walking a tightrope at a high altitude; a single mistake can wipe out your principal. Impulsive trading driven by the urge to chase prices will ultimately turn you into the market's 'chives'. Unverified trading strategies are like gambling with your eyes closed.
2. The Way to Break the Deadlock: Build a Rational Trading System
Trading Plan: A Navigation Tool Before Action
Clarify Before Entering: Why buy? What is the target price? Where is the stop-loss? Strictly execute the plan, eliminate emotional interference like a robot
There are indeed legendary stories in the cryptocurrency world of turning '100,000 into millions', but more often it is the harsh reality of 'zero overnight'. When you are obsessed with the fantasy of getting rich, please remember:
Leveraged trading is like walking a tightrope at a high altitude; a single mistake can wipe out your principal. Impulsive trading driven by the urge to chase prices will ultimately turn you into the market's 'chives'. Unverified trading strategies are like gambling with your eyes closed.
2. The Way to Break the Deadlock: Build a Rational Trading System
Trading Plan: A Navigation Tool Before Action
Clarify Before Entering: Why buy? What is the target price? Where is the stop-loss? Strictly execute the plan, eliminate emotional interference like a robot
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In-depth analysis of AIA and MMT operational logic: high volatility market game vs extreme control hunting
In the Chinese capital operation model, while AIA and MMT share the same operational logic, they present entirely different ecosystems at the execution level. The following analyzes the differentiated survival rules of this "twin flower of operations" from four dimensions:
1. K-line patterns: single peak gentle slope vs three段 cliff
The trend of AIA resembles a mountaineer, gently climbing along an upward trend line in the early stage, and entering a volatile downward channel after reaching the peak of 20. During the decline, small-scale rebounds frequently occur, and the overall rhythm is like a roller coaster running at 0.5x speed, leaving participants with enough reaction time.
MMT is like an out-of-control rocket, rapidly ascending in three stages straight into the sky, and after reaching the peak, it falls off a cliff without any warning. The entire process is precisely controlled by the project party, leaving only steep lines on the K-line chart, and this kind of "intensity" gives retail investors no chance to buckle their seatbelts.
1. K-line patterns: single peak gentle slope vs three段 cliff
The trend of AIA resembles a mountaineer, gently climbing along an upward trend line in the early stage, and entering a volatile downward channel after reaching the peak of 20. During the decline, small-scale rebounds frequently occur, and the overall rhythm is like a roller coaster running at 0.5x speed, leaving participants with enough reaction time.
MMT is like an out-of-control rocket, rapidly ascending in three stages straight into the sky, and after reaching the peak, it falls off a cliff without any warning. The entire process is precisely controlled by the project party, leaving only steep lines on the K-line chart, and this kind of "intensity" gives retail investors no chance to buckle their seatbelts.
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Small Capital Comeback Guide: From 800U to 30,000U Survival Rules
1. Low Capital ≠ No Opportunity
The harsh truth of the crypto world: 80% of people with less than 1000U capital can't survive for 3 months. But some have turned 800U into 30,000U in 5 months, relying not on luck but on these three life-saving rules.
2. Capital Allocation: Three Portions of Survival Money
300U Day Trading
Focus on BTC/ETH, only capturing 3-5% small fluctuations daily and exiting immediately, never lingering like a cheetah hunting, quick in and out.
300U Swing Shooter
Waiting for major events (ETF approval/Federal Reserve decisions) for 3-5 days, grasping the trend like a sniper, calculating the trajectory before pulling the trigger.
400U Hidden Card
When falling into the abyss, this is your revival armor; when rising to the sky, this is your safety rope. Remember: as long as the green mountains remain, you need not worry about firewood.
3. Trading Philosophy: Only Eat Big Meat, Don't Pick Sesame Seeds
90% of the time lying down watching dramas, 10% of the time precisely striking trend signals: BTC stabilizing at key support/ETH breaking previous highs, taking 15% profit and withdrawing half to secure gains. True experts understand: play dead most of the time, but bite and run when the opportunity arises.
4. Iron Rules: Let the Rules Control Your Hands
Stop Loss 1.5%
Cut losses when the point is reached, never fantasizing like a firefighter, extinguishing the flames as soon as they appear.
Profit 3% Reduce Half Position
Let profits run, but first lock in half like a farmer harvesting, storing grain before planting.
No Averaging Down When Losing
Averaging down is an abyss; the deeper you go, the worse it gets. Like a doctor, treat the disease before it occurs.
5. Long-termism: Regular Investment is Time's Friend
Regularly invest in BTC/ETH weekly, traversing bull and bear markets like a piggy bank, investing a little every day, with many future surprises. OKX Regular Investment Plan, let time help you make money.
800U can roll to 30,000U; what counts is not the heartbeat, but discipline. Remember:
Stay calm to survive, be not greedy to earn, follow the rules to win.
Crypto Survival Rule: Surviving is more important than anything else. #隐私币生态普涨
1. Low Capital ≠ No Opportunity
The harsh truth of the crypto world: 80% of people with less than 1000U capital can't survive for 3 months. But some have turned 800U into 30,000U in 5 months, relying not on luck but on these three life-saving rules.
2. Capital Allocation: Three Portions of Survival Money
300U Day Trading
Focus on BTC/ETH, only capturing 3-5% small fluctuations daily and exiting immediately, never lingering like a cheetah hunting, quick in and out.
300U Swing Shooter
Waiting for major events (ETF approval/Federal Reserve decisions) for 3-5 days, grasping the trend like a sniper, calculating the trajectory before pulling the trigger.
400U Hidden Card
When falling into the abyss, this is your revival armor; when rising to the sky, this is your safety rope. Remember: as long as the green mountains remain, you need not worry about firewood.
3. Trading Philosophy: Only Eat Big Meat, Don't Pick Sesame Seeds
90% of the time lying down watching dramas, 10% of the time precisely striking trend signals: BTC stabilizing at key support/ETH breaking previous highs, taking 15% profit and withdrawing half to secure gains. True experts understand: play dead most of the time, but bite and run when the opportunity arises.
4. Iron Rules: Let the Rules Control Your Hands
Stop Loss 1.5%
Cut losses when the point is reached, never fantasizing like a firefighter, extinguishing the flames as soon as they appear.
Profit 3% Reduce Half Position
Let profits run, but first lock in half like a farmer harvesting, storing grain before planting.
No Averaging Down When Losing
Averaging down is an abyss; the deeper you go, the worse it gets. Like a doctor, treat the disease before it occurs.
5. Long-termism: Regular Investment is Time's Friend
Regularly invest in BTC/ETH weekly, traversing bull and bear markets like a piggy bank, investing a little every day, with many future surprises. OKX Regular Investment Plan, let time help you make money.
800U can roll to 30,000U; what counts is not the heartbeat, but discipline. Remember:
Stay calm to survive, be not greedy to earn, follow the rules to win.
Crypto Survival Rule: Surviving is more important than anything else. #隐私币生态普涨
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AI Reshaping On-Chain Finance: How $UAI Enables DeFi Strategies to Evolve Autonomously?
A new chapter in intelligent DeFi strategies has begun, as the decentralized finance sector undergoes a profound transformation from simple yield farming to the integration of artificial intelligence and automation technologies. In this wave of transformation, the $UAI project, with its unique AI-driven architecture, is redefining the operational model of on-chain financial strategies.
Tokenized DeFi strategies encapsulate complex investment portfolios as freely tradable digital assets, liberating users from cumbersome manual operations. By transforming strategies into financial NFTs or vault tokens, $UAI achieves a leap from passive management to active optimization, making each strategy a digital entity with autonomous learning capabilities.
Tokenized DeFi strategies encapsulate complex investment portfolios as freely tradable digital assets, liberating users from cumbersome manual operations. By transforming strategies into financial NFTs or vault tokens, $UAI achieves a leap from passive management to active optimization, making each strategy a digital entity with autonomous learning capabilities.
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Ten Must-Read Trading Methods in Crypto: A Practical Guide from Trend Following to Value Speculation
I. Livermore Buying Method: A Pyramid Strategy for Trend Breakouts
Alternative name: Inverted Pyramid Averaging Down Trading Method
Core logic: Control risk through multi-position trial and error, and intervene in trending markets when the stock price breaks through key levels.
Key points of operation:
Use 20% of your initial capital as a trial position; if the price drops by 10%, immediately cut your losses.
I added to my position after the price rose 10%, completing the transaction in four separate transactions.
The validity of the breakout is confirmed by combining the ABC rule with volume.
Applicable Scenarios
: A one-sided trending market (such as an industry bull market).
Advantages and disadvantages
The advantage lies in accurately capturing strong trends; the disadvantage lies in the need for moving averages to help determine turning points, and the ease with which oscillation signals can be misinterpreted.
Alternative name: Inverted Pyramid Averaging Down Trading Method
Core logic: Control risk through multi-position trial and error, and intervene in trending markets when the stock price breaks through key levels.
Key points of operation:
Use 20% of your initial capital as a trial position; if the price drops by 10%, immediately cut your losses.
I added to my position after the price rose 10%, completing the transaction in four separate transactions.
The validity of the breakout is confirmed by combining the ABC rule with volume.
Applicable Scenarios
: A one-sided trending market (such as an industry bull market).
Advantages and disadvantages
The advantage lies in accurately capturing strong trends; the disadvantage lies in the need for moving averages to help determine turning points, and the ease with which oscillation signals can be misinterpreted.
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New York Federal Court MEV Attack Case Declared Mistrial: A 'Boundary War' Between On-Chain Gaming and Traditional Law
1. Core Facts of the Incident
The New York Federal Court declared a mistrial in the case against Anton and James Peraire-Bueno brothers due to the jury's inability to reach a consensus on 'guilty/not guilty.' The core controversy of the case revolves around the MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) attack on the Ethereum blockchain in 2023: this attack reportedly generated approximately $25 million in profit within about 12 seconds. The prosecution accused the defendants of engaging in 'bait and switch' tactics, alleging fraud and money laundering; the defense argued that such transactions are more akin to 'front-running' behaviors on the blockchain. After three weeks of hearings, the case was declared a mistrial due to the jury's differing opinions.
The New York Federal Court declared a mistrial in the case against Anton and James Peraire-Bueno brothers due to the jury's inability to reach a consensus on 'guilty/not guilty.' The core controversy of the case revolves around the MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) attack on the Ethereum blockchain in 2023: this attack reportedly generated approximately $25 million in profit within about 12 seconds. The prosecution accused the defendants of engaging in 'bait and switch' tactics, alleging fraud and money laundering; the defense argued that such transactions are more akin to 'front-running' behaviors on the blockchain. After three weeks of hearings, the case was declared a mistrial due to the jury's differing opinions.
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Turning the account's profit curve, that steep or gentle candlestick seems like a mirror, reflecting the soul of each investor. Some see the accumulation of wealth, some see the expansion of desire, while what I see is the true projection of human nature in the face of numbers.
Each rise on the profit chart is a reward for patience. Those who persist in regular investments during a downtrend ultimately welcome the explosion of compound interest; while short-term traders who frequently chase up and down often leave serrated scars on the profit chart. The market is like a strict teacher, using real money to teach us: true profit is not captured by luck during a surge, but is earned through discipline during fluctuations.
When the profit curve peaks, the seed of greed quietly sprouts. Some fantasize about "selling when it rises a bit more," only to get trapped at the summit; others leverage to create brilliance again, only to face a black swan impact. The peak of the profit chart often becomes a touchstone of human nature. Those who understand "taking the profit while it's good" ultimately leave the market with profits; while those addicted to numerical games will eventually return to square one.
What is most thought-provoking is the retracement part of the profit chart. It strikes like a heavy hammer, shattering unrealistic fantasies. Some panic and cut losses due to retracement, missing the rebound; while others see retracement as an opportunity, quietly accumulating shares at low levels. The fluctuations of the profit chart essentially reflect the market's screening of qualified investors — only those who can endure retracement are eligible to enjoy compound interest.
The ultimate significance of the profit chart lies not in the amount of numbers, but in what it teaches us: investing is an anti-human practice. Staying clear-headed when others are greedy, seeing opportunities when others are fearful, and when the profit curve is as smooth as a stream, we gain not only wealth but also breakthroughs in self-awareness.
This chart will ultimately become the password for our dialogue with the market. Understanding it means understanding the true essence of investing. #隐私币生态普涨
Each rise on the profit chart is a reward for patience. Those who persist in regular investments during a downtrend ultimately welcome the explosion of compound interest; while short-term traders who frequently chase up and down often leave serrated scars on the profit chart. The market is like a strict teacher, using real money to teach us: true profit is not captured by luck during a surge, but is earned through discipline during fluctuations.
When the profit curve peaks, the seed of greed quietly sprouts. Some fantasize about "selling when it rises a bit more," only to get trapped at the summit; others leverage to create brilliance again, only to face a black swan impact. The peak of the profit chart often becomes a touchstone of human nature. Those who understand "taking the profit while it's good" ultimately leave the market with profits; while those addicted to numerical games will eventually return to square one.
What is most thought-provoking is the retracement part of the profit chart. It strikes like a heavy hammer, shattering unrealistic fantasies. Some panic and cut losses due to retracement, missing the rebound; while others see retracement as an opportunity, quietly accumulating shares at low levels. The fluctuations of the profit chart essentially reflect the market's screening of qualified investors — only those who can endure retracement are eligible to enjoy compound interest.
The ultimate significance of the profit chart lies not in the amount of numbers, but in what it teaches us: investing is an anti-human practice. Staying clear-headed when others are greedy, seeing opportunities when others are fearful, and when the profit curve is as smooth as a stream, we gain not only wealth but also breakthroughs in self-awareness.
This chart will ultimately become the password for our dialogue with the market. Understanding it means understanding the true essence of investing. #隐私币生态普涨
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