加密币报

▪️ Stop staring at the primary market; it's really not a place for retail investors like us.
Private equity firms get in six months in advance, and their whitelist relies entirely on connections. With our limited capital and social skills, we can’t even touch the threshold.

▪️ But retail investors also have opportunities; it's just a different approach.
We can't compete with capital and resources, so we can only rely on our vision, execution, and patience for 'staking out'.

▪️ The most reliable approach: choose a track and dive deep into it.
Don't try DePIN today and then jump to RWA tomorrow. Skimming the surface will only keep you forever on the road, having done everything but mastering anything.

▪️ Focus on 'actual on-chain actions'; don’t just listen to people bragging.
Look at how many real users are interacting on the project’s chain, which big holders are consistently using it, and whether the TVL is steadily increasing. Don’t let screenshots and jokes set the pace; those things are too easy to fabricate.

▪️ The key is: who is still around, who is still working.
Those who are earning points, participating in governance, and have wallets hanging around for a long time are the ones who truly have confidence in the project. Observing these trends is more precise than listening to 10 KOLs.
▪️ Retail investors can’t afford the primary market but can find their own 'certainty' on-chain.
Slowly accumulate knowledge; the more you see and the longer you follow, the easier it will be to distinguish what's genuinely taking off and what's just a big talk to cut you.

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Point structure:

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My short position has been held for over a month now, let me briefly talk about the changes in my mental state during this period.

Stage One: You are all idiots! There was no time to accumulate positions (or I didn't see it), the moving averages are all over the place, there’s been no pullback, no adjustment, and one divergence after another—can this kind of rise go far???

Stage Two: Still relatively rational, feeling that it's too early for the bears to pop champagne if it drops back to 93; it's quite possible that there’s still a way to go to that 103 position. This wave of false signals is really impressive, but fortunately, I controlled my position well and got the average price above 10, which isn't a big problem; fishing for big gains with a long line, sitting steadily at the fishing platform;

Stage Three: It broke the previous high, I am unconvinced! This market can break the previous high in this state? The noise in my ears is gradually increasing, everyone around is bullish, feeling the pressure mounting, it's already starting to feel a bit uncomfortable;

Stage Four: Now, realizing the overall prediction was wrong, the only thought is how to properly handle this short position. I have no energy or time to care about other matters, I somewhat regret that I initially posted about researching Binance Alpha and didn't do that, but instead impulsively predicted and opened a short position. Is this the fate of a level two gambler?

Summary:

1. This kind of systematic short position is far less comfortable than a systematic long position because it fundamentally goes against the market trend;

2. The previous shorting tactics were basically light stop-losses to catch breakouts; this time, using this method feels particularly ineffective, I won't use it next time;

3. If the position is trapped for too long, various pressures will lead to distorted operations, and in terms of operations, I can only take a passive defense;

4. Most importantly, spreading too much energy is not cost-effective.

My short position has been held for over a month now, let me briefly talk about the changes in my mental state during this time.

Stage One: You are all idiots! There was no time to accumulate (or I didn't see it), the moving averages are all over the place, no pullbacks, no adjustments, can this kind of rally really go far with one divergence after another???

Stage Two: Still relatively rational, feeling that it's too early for the short sellers to pop champagne at 93, there might still be a ways to go up to 103; this wave of induced buying is really impressive, but luckily, I controlled my position well, averaging above 10 isn’t a big problem; fishing with a long line, sitting steadily on the fishing platform;

Stage Three: The previous high has been broken, I’m not convinced! This market can break the previous high in this state? The noise in my ears has gradually increased, everyone around is shouting bullish, feeling the pressure growing, it’s starting to get a bit uncomfortable;

Stage Four: Now, I realize the overall prediction was wrong, the only thought is how to handle this short position well, I don't have the energy or time to care about other things, a bit regretful that I even posted about why I didn’t study Binance Alpha back then, but instead impulsively predicted and opened a short, is this the fate of a secondary gambler?

Summary:

1. This kind of dollar-cost averaging short position is nowhere near as comfortable as a dollar-cost averaging long position because it fundamentally goes against the market trend;

2. The previous shorting techniques were mostly about light stop-losses and catching breakouts, but this time using this method feels particularly ineffective, won't use it next time;

3. If the position is trapped for too long, various pressures will cause the operation to deform, and in terms of operation, one can only make passive defenses;

4. Most importantly, spreading too much energy is not cost-effective.

Why is it not November of last year now?

Many counterfeit weekly charts have been falling for three weeks

Previously, it was on the rise all the way

It was just a pullback with a needle inserted

Currently, it is the line of life and death

Many influential figures are also bearish

I can only say that if there is no reaction in the next day or two, this trend will not hold

Retail investors have it tough.

"Every class leap in history relies on a migration of rules."

This migration is not happening in the real world, but on the blockchain.

Stablecoins are the core engine of this migration.

Don't just see how it "anchors the dollar"; see how it "connects the world."

Stablecoins are not a functional module of Web3; they are a relay of the global financial order.

Those who understand will take the lead; those who don't may be "stabilized" by stablecoins for a lifetime.

$b is the leader of the usd1 pool and has just reached a new high. Let's look for other usd1 base pool projects.

$B: Definitely the leader now, at 430m, has been listed on Binance Futures and Alpha.
$koma: An old project on BSC, added to the usd1 pool a few days ago, with a market cap of about 13m, listed on Binance Futures and Alpha.
$E: It is said that Mubarak is the CTO now, with a market cap of 3.8m.
$VIXBT: Some people are promoting it, but the trading volume is a bit small, and its popularity is not as high as the other few.
USD1DOGE: This should belong to one of the earliest original base pool projects, but the trading volume is also relatively small.
$lista: Has been listed on Binance, and has been performing well in the past couple of days.
$sto: Has been listed on Binance, integrated with usd1, and price performance is relatively average.
Falcon Finance: A yield-generating synthetic dollar platform invested by DWF, usd1 can be used as collateral, not yet TGE, and seems to allow deposits.

Due to the US stock market being closed on Monday, market sentiment may not become clear until Tuesday. Over the weekend, BTC saw a slight pullback, but investors did not panic, and the exchange inventory remains stable, with a lack of institutional participation leading to liquidity issues.

Key focus for this week:
1. Market reaction after the return of US investors;
2. Whether long-term holders will continue to accumulate;
3. Trends in Trump's tariffs (especially in the technology and automotive sectors).

After a peak of 111,900, it fell to a low of 106,600. A small pullback may be on the way in the short term, but the medium to long term outlook remains bullish.

The Bitcoin ETF institutions in the United States basically dominate the trend and direction of Bitcoin.

Therefore, it is essential to pay attention to the inflow and outflow data and situation of Bitcoin ETF institutional funds.

In the last month, the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETF institutions has far exceeded the net outflow.

Therefore, it can be considered that: the short-term decline and fluctuations still belong to normal adjustments, and BTC is likely to continue to surge, unless there is a significant net outflow of ETF institutional funds.

A new week, a new beginning, but this week also marks the end of this month!

And here, it will be the opening of the raging bull market's tail~

Embrace the impending madness, reject FOMO, manage your positions well, and hold your coins with peace of mind.

Many friends have noticed the existence of an M-top on the ETH daily chart, but the probability of a double top being established is relatively low because the previous low point showed a series of pin bars and is also near the neckline support, which indicates that the neckline support has strong strength. As long as it does not break down, the double top will not be established.

Secondly, even if a double top exists on a smaller scale, there is also a demand for a rebound and signs of a catch-up rally. Therefore, overall, before the double top is established, it is possible to go long and take advantage of a rebound. Once the rebound occurs, just remember to set a breakeven stop loss.