Market manipulation relies on news, and the real goal is to clean up the contract market. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes released dovish signals: most officials believe a rate cut is likely this year, and some even stated that if the data continues to meet expectations, they will consider initiating a rate cut at the July meeting.
As a result, cryptocurrencies collectively surged. Bitcoin briefly reached $112,000 during trading, setting a new historical high, with a maximum increase of 3%, and the year-to-date increase is nearing 20%. Along with this surge, over 114,000 people worldwide have been liquidated in the past 24 hours.
Why Bitcoin reached a new high
On Wednesday, tech stocks rose, with Nvidia becoming the first company to briefly surpass a market value of $4 trillion, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index hitting a record close. On the same day, investors reacted calmly to Trump's latest tariff measures.
For Bitcoin, CNBC analyzes it as a risk asset, with price fluctuations depending on investor sentiment. When market risk appetite is high, it often rises alongside growth assets like tech stocks; Bloomberg stated its surge highlights that the market remains speculative amid Trump's new tariff announcement; GSR's global head of OTC trading pointed out that strong demand for stock market instruments supports continued buying of Bitcoin.
Investors expect Bitcoin to reach new highs in the second half of the year. Uranium Digital's Chief Strategy Officer believes that the positive momentum that may emerge next week during cryptocurrency week and summer could push prices up to $120,000 or even higher by next weekend, and the open interest in call options exceeds that of put options, usually indicating that traders are bullish.
This surge is beneficial for financial companies in the cryptocurrency sector and other new generation Wall Street practitioners. The demand driven by institutions pushing Bitcoin to break through is the latest validation for cryptocurrency bulls; they bet that Trump's term will usher in a new era of relaxed regulation for cryptocurrencies.
BTC today's market:
BTC unexpectedly chose to break upward from the triangle consolidation structure, directly setting a new high, mainly driven by favorable news in the early morning. The current daily level has effectively broken the trend line and stabilized; in the short term, it may undergo a pullback confirmation, and it is safer to consider placing long positions after adjustment.
If it can successfully break through the historical high in the future, it will likely further boost market sentiment and attract capital backflow; secondary mainstream coins may also see opportunities for rotation and rebound.
The buyer groups of ETH and BTC are different:
Under the current market structure, the rise of Bitcoin (BTC) is primarily driven by 'new buyers', while Ethereum (ETH) relies more on the continued participation of 'faith buyers' and 'aggressive buyers'. The 'new buyers' for ETH are very limited and participate intermittently, especially during the deep pullback in March-April, where there was almost no significant buying action.
In contrast, each round of ETH's market rally is usually initiated by 'faith buyers' first, followed by 'aggressive buyers.' From the recent on-chain data of BTC, during the pullback to low levels, 'new buyers' instead actively entered the market first, becoming the main force that stopped the price from falling and stabilized it.
Therefore, attention can be focused on the movements of 'faith buyers' and 'aggressive buyers' in the ETH ecosystem. For example, since July 2, 'aggressive buyers' have continuously increased their ETH positions. Despite small-scale profit-taking during this period, the overall buying intensity remains strong, successfully absorbing short-term selling pressure and keeping ETH's price relatively stable.
Further analysis of the ETH chip structure from CBD data reveals the capital flow at key nodes. When ETH fell to $2400 on July 1, whales who originally had a cost of about $2600 massively increased their holdings, averaging down to about $2533, increasing the chips at this position from 1.43 million to 2.94 million.
Therefore, the area around $2500 can be seen as a key position with certain capital support. The pressure zone above is concentrated between $2700-$2800, which is a dense chip area formed by trapped funds from the January 2025 high being averaged down through continuous buying, resulting in heavy selling pressure.
If ETH wants to break through this area, it needs to observe whether the holding willingness of trapped chips is strong enough. If a large number of holders choose to stop-loss or exit at a high, this pressure zone will become the main resistance for a short-term breakthrough.
ETH today's market:
ETH accelerated its rise in the short term, surging 200 points overnight, also breaking the triangle pattern. The current price is close to short-term highs and near the highs of recent months, with upward momentum still strong. If it breaks through the short-term high, it may initiate a reversal trend; for now, it is advisable to wait for opportunities before taking action.
Is it really a bull market for many people right now?
For a bull market, you must have clear judgment criteria, which are characteristics that meet the bull market. These judgment standards serve as support for your conclusions. Departing from objective and rational support for trading means you are just playing tricks!
Altcoin
If more than 50% of retail investors miss out, it indicates that altcoin season has completed 50%; if 80% of retail investors can't resist missing out and jump in, altcoin season is nearing its end.
Don't worry about missing out on altcoin season, because currently 80% of retail investors can't break even even if they double their investments. Those with patience can continue to wait patiently; maybe in a few days the price will go back...
Of course, pursuing small investments for large returns, following trends with contracts or short-term operations is not inherently wrong; it's just a choice made by different people. But the key is, do you really understand whether these methods are suitable for you? Don't let the urgent mindset of 'wanting to make money' ultimately become the root of your losses.
Ultimately, what determines how far you can go on this investment journey is not luck, but: ability, time, idle funds, and stable off-market cash flow. Only with all four can the bull market truly relate to you; otherwise, no matter how good the market is, it may just pass you by, leaving behind only the phrase 'what a painful realization.'
