太白

Trading Notes 5.13
The market has given me a lot of opportunities in the past two days. My small position has increased from 10u on the 8th to 5000u.
But after the new account of 3000u increased to 5000u yesterday afternoon, I made a mistake in my judgment.
At 7 o'clock last night, after observing that Mubarak showed signs of breakthrough, I opened a ten-fold order at the price of 0.054. After that, its price began to rise normally, but then it immediately fell.
I was deceived by a false breakthrough.
I made a profit first and then a loss. I was stopped out and lost 2000u. I returned to the original state of my account and stood in front of the mirror blankly.
At the beginning of the 8th
I had a small position of 10u, and adopted a strategy of playing with a few hands. I made a great progress and earned 5000u in 5 days.
The new account was 3000u. I always adhered to the trading discipline and only did breakthrough market. After 5 days, it was still 3000u.
I understand that trading is a game of probability, but I still want to fuck the market. #交易经验 #山寨币交易

Trading Notes May 5
From May 1 to May 5 at 4 PM.
A total of 17 trades, 4 profitable trades, 8 losing trades, and 5 flat trades.
Initial capital 3267u, current 3296u.
Conclusion: It was a waste of time, nearly break-even, no loss no gain, just providing liquidity to the market.
Review of shortcomings: The win rate is so low it's unwatchable; bring a dog to lick the keyboard, and it would have a higher win rate than me. Entry points were random, with four out of ten trades entered hastily without waiting for my set entry signals, leading to impulsive trades that were meaningless, and 90% of those trades lost money. Surprisingly, the final settlement didn't result in a loss, which is simply a miracle.
Review of strengths: Stop-losses were decisive, profitable trades could run, regardless of how many times I opened them; if losses exceeded two points, I decisively exited, completely avoiding the chance to make a big mistake, not testing my humanity. Profitable trades could be held for a longer time.

Why did I see the market correctly but fail to make money?

When the breakthrough bullish candle for ETH appeared at three o'clock on the afternoon of the 22nd, I knew the rebound market was confirmed.
But while the overall market turned bullish, I clearly had a positive view of the market, yet what was I doing? I was stubbornly fighting with fartcoin!
There were too many coins at the bottom, and their trends were all similar, which caused me to suffer from choice paralysis.
I didn't know which coin would rise and which would not. If I spread my investments too thin, the feeling of holding a bunch of coins made me uncomfortable, so I foolishly bought the already trending fartcoin!
I completely ignored those altcoins that were lying at the bottom and had huge potential for growth.
Moreover, during the process, I was repeatedly stopped out and stubbornly continued to fight on, not only losing money but also missing out on market opportunities!
I completely overlooked that since it was a bottom rebound market, I should be investing in coins that are rebounding from the bottom according to market trends, rather than trying to be clever to avoid the fear of choosing!
Whatever the market is doing, that’s what coins you should invest in. I need to remember this phrase.

Except for the positions held by layer, all have been closed, and I am temporarily not optimistic about the market. I estimate it will fluctuate for a while, but during this phase, there will usually be one or two big coins that will emerge, like in 2021 with AXS leading the gaming coins. If you catch it, it will really take off.
Right now, I am optimistic about fartcoin and layer.

Trading Notes 4.29

Today I opened three trades, adhering to the rule of no more than three trades per day.

1: At 8:32 AM, bought move at a price of 0.249, then closed at a price of 0.243 at 8:31 PM.
(Small loss, but it aligns with my trading system for opening positions. However, while focusing on the pattern, I overlooked its sideways fluctuation state and was not careful enough when opening the position.)
2: At 10:17 AM, bought bio at a price of 0.0787, then automatically stopped out at a price of 0.0767 at 12:46 PM.
(Loss, and it completely did not align with my trading system; it was purely random trading, unable to control the impulse, deserved to lose money.)
3: At 5:35 PM, bought aave at a price of 168.7, then actively closed at a price of 167 at 8:32 PM.
(Small loss, considered in line with my trading system for opening positions; the entry was okay, had profits at one point, but the exit was average and did not meet my expectations, so I closed it.)
Summary: Opened three trades, lost on all three, feeling great, like jumping into a well while carrying a 300-pound tank, wanting to die but stuck in the well.
Continuing to test tomorrow; if still losing, I will adjust the entry mechanism.

I don't know what's going on. When I am bearish on a certain coin, it does indeed go down, but often the entire market plummets along with it. Did you think I made a killing? No, at that time, the coin I was bearish on often barely drops. It's not that it doesn't drop, but rather it dips just a little out of respect, and as soon as the market rebounds slightly, it immediately bounces back. It happens every time, I feel like I'm going crazy. Conversely, if I'm bullish, it's the same. Just like today, when I was bullish on Layer and the overall market surged, it felt like it hadn’t moved in a week and finally became constipated, lying there motionless. It's driving me crazy.

Trading Notes 4.27

Today I opened a position on Ondo, going long at 4:16 PM at a price of 0.963, and closed it at 7:28 PM at 0.96. I lost a bit on fees, as the market is quite boring.
This afternoon, I wanted to short Alpaca several times, but couldn't find a good position; I'm really scared of these highly volatile coins.
If my entry point had been slightly different, I could have made money on a trade I clearly saw was in the right direction.
Because I can't bear the floating loss, even with a five times leverage, just a little fluctuation can wipe out twenty or thirty points.
Moreover, I don't know what my problem is; I can't stand seeing losses. When the floating loss exceeds twenty points, I want to cut my losses. Then, a coin I clearly see in the right direction turns into a losing trade because I can't endure the floating loss. But to cut losses, one has to widen the stop loss, which means if I get the direction wrong, I could get completely liquidated. So now I am very cautious; for these highly volatile coins, unless I see an entry point with an extremely good risk-reward ratio, I prefer not to get involved, even if it means missing out.

Today opened six orders, four losses and two gains.
cow: Shorted at a price of 0.304 at 9:49 PM on the 25th, closed at a price of 0.309 at 8:03 AM on the 26th, loss.
layer: Opened a long position at a price of 2.76 at 1:55 PM on the 26th, stop-loss triggered at 3:46 PM, average closing price was also 2.76, lost the transaction fee.
mubarak: Opened a long position at a price of 0.0346 at 8:45 AM on the 26th, voluntarily closed at the same price of 0.0346 at 3:59 PM, lost the transaction fee again.
eth: Went long at a price of 1805 at 3:29 PM on the 26th, took profit at a price of 1813 at 4:40 PM, slight gain.
gps: Opened a long position at a price of 0.0225 at 4:07 PM on the 26th, stopped out at a price of 0.0221 at 5:35 PM. Loss.
ordi: Opened a long position at a price of 8.2 at 11:12 PM last night, still holding, small gain.
Reviewing my position history, the habit of opening orders randomly is very serious, it makes me laugh in anger, if this way of trading does not lose money, then it would be a case of divine blindness.
But clearly when opening orders, I felt quite confident and had no issues, upon careful reflection, the reason lies in not having a definitive trading system, no clear entry and exit points, and the settings for taking profits and stopping losses were also very casual, and I was particularly greedy. In the afternoon when virtual aixbt started to rise, I couldn't help but want to chase several times, and when I really couldn't hold back, I forced myself to look back at my previous records of chasing highs and getting buried to calm down.

SUI was liquidated at 11 PM last night, with the first half closing price at 2.8 and the second half closing price at 3.3, averaging at 3.09.
It seems that small losses and big gains were achieved, but there are still problems.
Subjective trading inevitably leads to predicting market trends.
I have always believed that this is a rebound, not a reversal, so I can't help but guess the peak in my mind. The weekly middle track is the highest price I believe it can reach, and that price point is 3.33. According to past experience, if it is weak, it will peak at 2.9; if it is strong, it will reach 3.5. This is also why I closed the previous position at 2.8.
Clearly, this approach is wrong; it's not a matter of whether the prediction is right or wrong.
Instead, one should completely abandon subjective assumptions. Predictions shouldn't be made; instead, one should carefully observe the upward trajectory, just like this time. SUI has continuously climbed along the hourly line without breaking below it, so after buying, one should stop watching the price and just look at the candlestick chart. No matter how high it rises, as long as it doesn't break below the 1-hour upward trajectory line, one should hold on. And once it breaks below the trajectory line, regardless of the price, one should leave immediately; this is the correct approach.

Beginner's Trading Notes 4.24

For the past two days, I've had nine consecutive losing trades. Although the losses are not significant, the end of technical analysis is probability, and true long-term profitability relies on losing less and earning more.
But my risk-reward ratio is really foolish; even a monkey throwing darts at random would have a better risk-reward ratio than me.
In reviewing the most profitable trades of the past few days regarding Sui, on April 22 at 4:01 PM, I bought in at 2.29 and sold half at 2.88, while still holding the other half. From a positive perspective, this trade was successful in holding onto the profitable position and closing the losing ones.
The reason for buying was that before this trade, I had opened a long position on Sui on the 21st on OK, but the pullback early on the 22nd hit my stop loss. At that time, I thought it was a lost cause, so I stopped paying attention. Then, at 4 PM, while scanning the rankings, I suddenly saw it on the gainers list.
Upon checking, I found that it not only broke through yesterday's pullback high but also exceeded the recent high, showing very strong momentum. Based on my past experience, the probability of this coin going up is very high, so I bought in, but I actually bought too little; this is the problem I have now. When I discover a potential coin and start building a position, it’s usually not large, as I'm thinking I'll add more once the trend confirms.
The logic is correct, but the execution fails because if it really does go up, I'm too afraid to chase it. So even if it rises, I won't make much money. The reason I'm hesitant to chase could be because I've tried adding to positions a few times before, but each time I added at the wrong points, and it would drop immediately after I finished adding. Thus, the result was not only did I not earn any rolling profits, but I also gave back all previous gains. Occasionally, I ended up losing money, which created a psychological barrier that makes me reluctant to add to my position.
But I'm also hesitant to go in heavy, especially with the current ridiculously poor risk-reward ratio, making me even more reluctant to take a heavy position.

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