Beginner's Trading Notes 4.24

For the past two days, I've had nine consecutive losing trades. Although the losses are not significant, the end of technical analysis is probability, and true long-term profitability relies on losing less and earning more.

But my risk-reward ratio is really foolish; even a monkey throwing darts at random would have a better risk-reward ratio than me.

In reviewing the most profitable trades of the past few days regarding Sui, on April 22 at 4:01 PM, I bought in at 2.29 and sold half at 2.88, while still holding the other half. From a positive perspective, this trade was successful in holding onto the profitable position and closing the losing ones.

The reason for buying was that before this trade, I had opened a long position on Sui on the 21st on OK, but the pullback early on the 22nd hit my stop loss. At that time, I thought it was a lost cause, so I stopped paying attention. Then, at 4 PM, while scanning the rankings, I suddenly saw it on the gainers list.

Upon checking, I found that it not only broke through yesterday's pullback high but also exceeded the recent high, showing very strong momentum. Based on my past experience, the probability of this coin going up is very high, so I bought in, but I actually bought too little; this is the problem I have now. When I discover a potential coin and start building a position, it’s usually not large, as I'm thinking I'll add more once the trend confirms.

The logic is correct, but the execution fails because if it really does go up, I'm too afraid to chase it. So even if it rises, I won't make much money. The reason I'm hesitant to chase could be because I've tried adding to positions a few times before, but each time I added at the wrong points, and it would drop immediately after I finished adding. Thus, the result was not only did I not earn any rolling profits, but I also gave back all previous gains. Occasionally, I ended up losing money, which created a psychological barrier that makes me reluctant to add to my position.

But I'm also hesitant to go in heavy, especially with the current ridiculously poor risk-reward ratio, making me even more reluctant to take a heavy position.