勿空勿空空只是对冲

Still #Aidoge, I've been eyeing five or six altcoins for the past few months aiming to buy at the bottom. Among the memes, this is the one I chose. How to put it, the goal is to buy at the bottom, the method is to stagger my entries and set multiple stop-losses. It just didn't give me a chance as I was building contracts and tokens with twelve zeros at the bottom (I originally planned to hold a fourteen-digit position all the way down). Now, the yield looks pretty good; the last time this yield was seen was on TRB. It's not about taking a gamble on an ant position; I'm just more conservative while the market has become aggressive. However, at this point, viewers should not rush in easily; the current price level may see significant adjustments mid-way.

Many people often take short-term consolidations at the hourly level as nodes to act upon, calling it short-term trading. In fact, it is simply irresponsible with their own capital. Interestingly, when they frequently take action and set stop-losses, there will often be situations where the market breaks the stop-loss and then reverses, which is still considered fortunate. Some people choose to go all in against the trend, just like a small scar that they don’t disinfect, waiting until it festers all over before betting their vitality on luck, sigh...
Short-term trading is not mindless pleasure; it requires analysis and patience. More importantly, it requires a sense of reverence, understanding whether the risks they are taking can be accepted. One must cherish their capital to have a chance to make money with it.

I woke up at two o'clock this morning after sleeping until last night, and for the first time stayed up all night until dawn. The reason? Well, everyone should have seen it; Bitcoin surged to 109,800 and then pulled back. Although I had anticipated that it would test the previous high, I still found myself organizing my thoughts again involuntarily.
I placed two 0.01 Ant Group short orders at 109,600 and 109,800 to gauge whether it would break the new high, with a stop-loss set at 109,999.9. As it turned out, it did indeed drop, and at the same time, I had a strong subconscious feeling reminding me: this does not count as a reversal, not even a short-term one. To verify, during a short-term decline and consolidation, I bought two 0.01 Ant Group long positions at around 106,500. The next step was just to observe.
I want to reiterate that I will never be so confident as to replace the market in making judgments. After saying this, I'll share my personal thoughts: Bitcoin is infinitely close to the previous high and is very likely to break it. Last night’s volatility seemed not just like a fake drop but more like building momentum. After breaking the new high, it might oscillate for a bit like it has these past few days before continuing to rise; or! It might explode in a surge, while at the same time, the probability and magnitude of a reversal drop will increase due to the subsequent rise, meaning that the higher it breaks, the larger and fiercer the drop will be. Currently, I feel that breaking the high will happen in these few days; early could be today, late could be the weekend.
In terms of levels, I currently feel that around 120,000, give or take 2,000 points, could be a basic step.
Ha, these are just my personal thoughts. I also opened a short-term Ant Group position for reference and verification, but I will never gamble on this possibility being absolutely right. It's enough for me to ensure that my operations do not conflict with this direction. I hope the viewers will feel the same. As for those who disagree, that's perfectly normal; in reality, the possibility of being wrong in the market is not surprising. Just refrain from making ambiguous statements. After all, I’m not insisting that you accept this, right?

In the past two months, several altcoins have experienced significant fluctuations. Apart from new coins, I've had a bit of involvement with almost all the others. This is not to show off; it’s mainly basic or small positions, and I haven't made any moves regardless of the ups and downs. As for new coins, I won't say much. I'm not very focused on them for two reasons: first, I’m unsure if they are reliable; second, new coins often shine initially but then decline and remain dormant for a long time. I’m not interested in taking a chance on whether I’ll get trapped in them.
Returning to the previous topic, the reason I can always gain a little is that altcoins generally drop to low levels. At this point, as long as you have some reliable coins, there will always be a time to rise, and eventually, there will be opportunities for significant increases. Additionally, the coins I started accumulating a few months ago are ones that I have a relatively deep impression of over the last couple of years; I feel they are reliable enough not to be delisted. The previous few months were quite tedious and uninteresting; I bought coins that seemed like they would keep falling, but I still insisted on gradually buying them, considering them as zero-loss chips. To board a ship, you must proceed calmly when there are few people around; waiting until it takes off means you’ll have to queue up, which is tough.
There’s no trick; it’s just about choosing reliable coins, being patient, buying when prices fall, buying more during significant drops, and during rises, at least this year, I’ve been too lazy to act.

The rise of OM today seems abrupt, but in fact, there was a previous instance when it surpassed 0.5. While observing ACT, I also compared it horizontally with OM, which had a similar plummet during the same period. To be honest, my impression is not good; the rumors of running away are a fatal blow. However, considering the significant gap, I bought 2000 around 0.36. I didn't sell when it broke 0.5 earlier, and now, because of that, I noticed that it hasn’t dropped below 0.35 during this time.
I remain conservative; aside from the 2000 that I’m holding, I initially planned to wait until the weekend to reassess. However, I made a move today. The starting point today is 0.379, and the lowest point during this drop is 0.35. Let's observe the trend based on these two points. If it doesn't fall and breaks through the previous two point ranges in the next couple of days, there might be a little surprise of a few bucks.
I personally think around 0.406 is a consideration point. If it falls back to here, I might buy some. I would operate like this: buy a thousand with a stop loss of fifty dollars. The potential return to stop loss ratio is very tempting. But I would never go in heavily; after all, there are negative news around. If the major player is indeed exiting for arbitrage, I would accept a personal loss, but there's no need to lose all my chips over this.

The weekend combined with a few fluctuations on Monday is actually very similar to when Bitcoin started a while ago. I personally have a strong feeling that before Bitcoin breaks its new high, it is very unlikely to pull back too low, and the possibility of staying above 100,000 is extremely high. After breaking the historical high, the likelihood of dropping below 100,000 will gradually increase.

Like everyone else, I am also prepared for the deep pullback of Bitcoin these past few days. It's quite interesting; I've reduced my position and lowered my leverage. After waiting for a while, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 95000 and 92000 for several days. The grinding effort may cause many people to take action early. However, with Bitcoin behaving this way, it does make me consider a bit more about it breaking new highs; going short shouldn't be done lightly. Throwing in everything? That's a joke. If the market hits new highs and you get liquidated, wouldn't that be foolish? Currently, it looks like the pullback could be quite deep; I think it could reach anywhere from 86000 to 69000, or it could be shallower than everyone expects, just above 90000. When it rises, it won't tell everyone, 'I'm about to rise, everyone get on board' or anything like that. My decision is to stay put and wait. When the pullback sharply increases in volume, I will add to my position where it consolidates, and I might also set a stop-loss at the recent low, but I absolutely won't go all in, and definitely won't short at this moment. Many people say that rising from 74000 to 95000 is already very high. Is it high? Looking at the progress this year, it seems we might just be halfway up the mountain.

What causes anti-orders? This is different from effective stop-loss orders. When the actual market breaks through your effective stop-loss order, the loss should be clear and within your acceptable range. After that, whether you act with caution or add to your position, it means you still have many chips available for further choices.
Anti-orders, on the other hand, are quite different; they are essentially a last-ditch gamble. Once the actual market goes against your judgment, you may not even have more opportunities to respond.
The beginning and process of anti-orders: Everything makes your heart race, all signs seem to prove your judgment is incredibly close to being correct, then you place a heavy bet, and then the market goes against your judgment — your mindset starts to change — anxiety and FOMO emotions arise and expand — a gambler's mentality emerges, selectively recognizing the worst possible outcome, expanding your stop-loss or even putting in your last chips after assessing the worst-case scenario — a high probability of shattering illusions, going back to square one overnight, a low probability of success, extremely flashy, without considering that your premature bet has already sacrificed a significant portion of profit, yet your confidence remains high. When you fail to achieve your profit target, you eagerly engage in another round of irrational gambling, and then there’s no turning back.

Regarding today's market changes, I personally believe: it is always important to understand one thing, that is, the price of Bitcoin has not fluctuated more than 2 points up and down between yesterday and today, which means: 1. If it is going to drop, then we are far from the end; 2. If it is just consolidating, but some altcoins have seen significant drops, they are worth paying attention to.
Based on this understanding, I made some moves with a few coins I hold. Besides ACT, where I increased my position and set the stop-loss at today's lowest point plus two points, the others are limit orders at about 20-30% below the current price level, adding a ten percent position. Today I saw a quote from someone that I very much agree with: if you think the market will fall into a range and consolidate, then wait for it to enter that range before acting, as doing nothing before that may be the most effective approach—because regardless of whether the actual situation matches your judgment, your losses are limited.

Originally thought that the big pie would reverse after breaking 95,000, and now it is confirmed to have reversed. However, seeing a wave of people in the group frantically betting on shorts, I suddenly feel that the big pie might still go up for a while; otherwise, it would really be unfair to those people's frenzy.

#Ordi, I mentioned before that I have bought a bit of several categories, including the inscription category, which will definitely not be absent from sats. However, the positions are not large. The cost of my Ordi position is around 6. Firstly, I believe these two will definitely become active in the near future. The term 'active' is used because at its current price level, there must be several times of upward potential in the short term. However, at the same time, I believe they will also reach new lows. It's hard to say whether they will hit a peak first or break a bottom, so I have only placed a basic position of over 100 and will wait and see.

Yesterday's big pancake fluctuated slightly as usual (yes, two or three points can just be called slight; if this affects your profit and loss, it only shows that you are too aggressive, making it easy to have problems). Yesterday it reached 91600, today I jokingly guess: a pullback to around 90300, then a new high, above 95000; of course, the order might be reversed. Regardless of the order, the subsequent reversal will lead this imitation to fluctuate significantly.

#Aidoge, after a sharp decline and a few days of consolidation, there has been some movement today. Actually, I feel it hasn't dropped enough yet, but after selling the thirteen-digit spot, the profit margin is still decent. Holding onto the idea that a sharp drop will lead to a rebound, I opened a fourteen-digit contract position between 0.00000000011 and 0.0000000001, with a stop loss at 0.000000000098. I didn't dare to hold on to it, and today I sold 40% at the position of 0.00000000016. This allows the remaining 6 positions with thirteen digits to hold until 0.00000000008, so after adjusting the stop loss, I don't plan to make any more moves. The basic position is still the initial thirteen-digit one without a stop loss, after all, this basic position can withstand a drop even if it falls another zero. Overall, after breaking 0.00000000008, I will slowly add positions based on the situation. The extreme scenarios are: either a big rise, which is a good thing, or a sharp drop to around 0.00000000024 breaking a new low, at which point I will add positions using fourteen digits as the basic unit. Personally, I think this approach is relatively prudent and can be referenced.

In recent days, market sentiment has been high, and the number of people buying and short-selling has visibly increased, especially those signal callers who are enthusiastically shouting live slogans while occasionally packaging a few seemingly professional terms, such as: 30% position, 50% position—meaning trust me, there’s no risk, I’m talking about position control.
In fact, it’s all nonsense.
You have one hundred dollars; theoretically, you take thirty dollars to speculate once, hoping that thirty turns into fifty or even a hundred, which seems reasonable.
Now, would you take ten dollars and throw it in the river, betting that it will turn into a thousand and float back to you tomorrow? Would you take that bet?
There will still be people who bet; maybe they’ll succeed and continue to entice you? Would you take that bet? A thousand dollars can be thrown a hundred times… The people who initially bet would likely continue to bet, and then, there would be no further outcome; your original one hundred would also have drifted away.
What is position management? Building a position means you have calculated how much risk you can bear and what to do if you incur losses, whether there’s continuity.
All things actually have a rule of limits approaching zero, including risk. If you buy an Ethereum worth 800 USDT for 1000 USDT now, do you think you have risk? If so, then buy half or 0.1 and continue to wait. The ultimate goal of position management is to minimize your risk, regardless of how much you invest each time; it’s just temporarily overspending now, and it will eventually be corrected, ultimately keeping the risk at the lowest level! Not like what those signal callers say, either go to the moon or a 30% loss!
Speaking of which, those signal callers don’t understand anything, they know nothing, can’t study, can’t work, and can’t think; these kinds of people only have gambling in their minds, or they’re betting by latching onto others. Those who trust them are no different from those who believe in pyramid schemes.

The market has been quite complex these days, with Bitcoin fluctuating upwards, and altcoins jumping around chaotically, creating a scene of disorder at first glance.
Here I want to express my personal opinion again: simplify complex matters.
First, we need to determine that most altcoins are currently at a low position. As long as they are not exit scams or not during this cycle, it means that the bottom must eventually be filled. My basis for this is that recently, different coins have been skyrocketing every day, only to be cut down and consolidate. Therefore, I believe this phase is about rotating and washing and absorbing positions.
Once we have established this basic understanding, in terms of operation, you can choose to hold onto one coin firmly, buying low and selling high. If you're more aggressive, you can pick one or two coins from different concepts and build positions in batches during downturns. The downside of this approach is that it may increase leverage and burden your position, so position sizing and stop-loss must be well planned; the upside is that you will find that when one side rises today, the profits can be used to increase positions and cover those that have fallen, and then in a couple of days, when that side falls back, the other side rises again, making the compounding efficiency very high. Personally, I've been doing this these past few days, selecting one or two from meme, inscriptions, layer 1, and AI, and the trend of rotating rises has become very obvious through horizontal comparisons over several days.
However, it is crucial to pay attention to risks. Once Bitcoin changes direction and corrects, altcoins will certainly fall across the board, so position control is essential. If you still have chips on hand when probing the bottom, victory is in sight.

I noticed that my followers are about to reach a hundred, which is quite nice.
Since I am fortunate enough to receive some recognition from a few people, I would like to say a few things:
1. I do not welcome gamblers, not out of disdain, but because our perspectives are completely different.
2. I do not welcome those who promote trading services; I write posts just to adjust my thoughts and organize my ideas, and I do not engage in any form of marketing. Being responsible for your own trading is quite commendable.
3. Everyone is welcome to provide information and resources from all aspects.
4. Here, I would appreciate fewer schadenfreude comments. This is not my main profession; it is merely a speculative interest. I hope everyone feels the same way and does not compromise their integrity for speculation; morality is a lifelong blessing.

Today I saw someone saying they would stop after losing 100,000 USDT, hmm, what was that gambler's name, fittingly, I can only say they are truly wasting money.
Looking back at the market in the past few months, the previous month was all about finding the bottom, this month, in fact, it’s very simple to make money: buy when there's a significant drop, then when it goes up, check the leverage; if there’s a risk of falling back to the bottom, then sell the added positions and just keep the base position. In the past month, it has actually been the best stage for compounding operations with mainstream coins and altcoins and adding positions at the bottom because it has gone up multiple times and then returned to the original position or even lower. After a drop, just adding a stop loss can still allow it to rise back. What a great opportunity to accumulate chips! However, in just these one or two months, 90% of people are losing money, and the so-called signal providers are losing everyone’s money.
The reasons are very simple: two: 1. Pursuing short-term gains without grasping the overall direction for the medium to long term, playing too much is just gambling. 2. Going beyond one's means to leverage, incredibly flashy in favorable winds, but when the wind is against you, you return to square one, get liquidated, then invest money again, and then it’s another cycle.
I can only say, don’t get too carried away and squander opportunities like they’re worthless.

#ETH In fact, some things are truly great foolishness is the real wisdom. Take Ethereum for example, it has been fluctuating between 1300-1900 over the past month, rising in the morning and dropping in the afternoon. Trying to figure it out is really a waste of energy.
In my opinion, there are really just two conditions: either you have the funds or you have the patience. If you have funds, with 2000U you can buy 1.5, and with 20000U you can buy 15. In as little as two months, you can make a profit, and if it takes longer, you can still triple your investment in about half a year. This is much more reliable than leveraging to guess the bottom and trying to profit from the drops, and there’s a higher probability of making more.
If you have patience, then it's about buying a little when the price drops by a hundred. The extreme estimate is that it might drop ten times by a hundred within a week or a month, and most likely it will be a spike. You’ll need to stay up late watching to buy, but of course, setting orders works too.
To put it simply, both of these options are easy, and there's no need for any analysis. I’m here to say that this strategy will definitely earn you money.
Unfortunately, there are too many wise people here, too many so-called experts acting like they can predict the direction in the next second. They toss their chips back and forth, can’t hold on, and end up losing, feeling confused and disappointed, thinking there’s no hope left.
In short, Ethereum, you should enter the market within your chip tolerance range, and you will definitely profit, so just follow the process.

#act I estimate that in the next few days it could make it to the top 20 trending list. To be honest, I haven't researched this coin too thoroughly; I just feel that after its continuous plummet, the team's attitude seems to be decent. They are willing to speak out and are not the type to make money quietly and then disappear. This is purely a subjective perception.
So I watched it for a week or two, and yesterday I bought some contracts. Well, at the current level, I think there is still some room for growth. I feel we might see around 0.14. Of course, we need to pay attention to the upcoming 0.08-0.09 range, as there is a considerable chance it could drop back below 0.06.
That being said, there is no need to take this coin too seriously; just ride this wave with BTC and then cash out. After all, it's a new coin, and there is still a lot of room for decline. I believe the current range of 0.038-0.04 is not the bottom; after this wave, during the upcoming month's downtrend, it might experience one or two halving events.