勿空勿空空只是对冲
我厌恶、鄙视喊单业务员，在我看来，他们就是装作聪明实则自己没本钱终日挑着别人赌博做梦抽利的一群废品。我提观点的原因只有两个:1.闲着没事让人看看，可能少吃点亏。2.用作事后验证或者炫耀，用来撒盐打那些喊单掮客废品的脸
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Keep having fun and continue to verify
Regarding the recent market situation, I would like to make a personal prediction.
First, I declare: this personal prediction is merely a reference for my own trading decisions. It is by no means a definite outcome; viewers are welcome to observe, think, and verify, but it should only be considered a reference.
This week, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new high is high. I believe the catalyst might be the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate results. Personally, I think not lowering interest rates shouldn't be seen as bad news. The general approach will be that the results come out, the Federal Reserve and the chairman give a report, followed by analysis from experts, which usually involves promoting expectations of increasing the frequency and extent of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, exaggerating predictions about the timing of these cuts (it is very likely to be an optimistic narrative, preparing for a reversal later on).
Over the next few days and next week, Bitcoin will likely experience a significant rise, with multiple new highs being set. The altcoin community will fill the gaps.
Then there will be a sudden sharp reversal, with big players taking profits and a rapid decline, conservatively estimating between 89,000 and 91,000. Is that the limit? Everyone, I don't even rule out the possibility of dropping below 50,000, although this probability is not high.
After that, Bitcoin is likely to take off. At that time, many timely narratives will emerge, and altcoins will rise unabashedly for a period of time, indicating a bull market.
First, I declare: this personal prediction is merely a reference for my own trading decisions. It is by no means a definite outcome; viewers are welcome to observe, think, and verify, but it should only be considered a reference.
This week, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new high is high. I believe the catalyst might be the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate results. Personally, I think not lowering interest rates shouldn't be seen as bad news. The general approach will be that the results come out, the Federal Reserve and the chairman give a report, followed by analysis from experts, which usually involves promoting expectations of increasing the frequency and extent of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, exaggerating predictions about the timing of these cuts (it is very likely to be an optimistic narrative, preparing for a reversal later on).
Over the next few days and next week, Bitcoin will likely experience a significant rise, with multiple new highs being set. The altcoin community will fill the gaps.
Then there will be a sudden sharp reversal, with big players taking profits and a rapid decline, conservatively estimating between 89,000 and 91,000. Is that the limit? Everyone, I don't even rule out the possibility of dropping below 50,000, although this probability is not high.
After that, Bitcoin is likely to take off. At that time, many timely narratives will emerge, and altcoins will rise unabashedly for a period of time, indicating a bull market.
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How Can the Poor Become Wealthy?
There are many talented people in the cryptocurrency circle, but they generally won't communicate here.
In the cryptocurrency circle, there are more losers, scammers, and boastful posts about how to get rich. Nine and a half out of ten are just that.
How can ordinary people become rich from nothing? Two sentences: Be serious and righteous! Be serious and do proper work!
I was born in the 1970s, to a generation of poor people, and the most successful achievement was for the whole family to have enough to eat, a place to live, and clothes to wear. The excellent ones could send their children to school and to university.
In my family, the two brothers, my father was a worker, and my mother came from the countryside to attend middle school, ranking first in the county. It took three days to reach the provincial capital, and she entered Hunan First Normal School, later becoming a primary school teacher. They were excellent because on the entire street, it was just my brother and me who later went to university.
In the cryptocurrency circle, there are more losers, scammers, and boastful posts about how to get rich. Nine and a half out of ten are just that.
How can ordinary people become rich from nothing? Two sentences: Be serious and righteous! Be serious and do proper work!
I was born in the 1970s, to a generation of poor people, and the most successful achievement was for the whole family to have enough to eat, a place to live, and clothes to wear. The excellent ones could send their children to school and to university.
In my family, the two brothers, my father was a worker, and my mother came from the countryside to attend middle school, ranking first in the county. It took three days to reach the provincial capital, and she entered Hunan First Normal School, later becoming a primary school teacher. They were excellent because on the entire street, it was just my brother and me who later went to university.
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In the past couple of days, I haven't done much trading. I previously estimated that there would be several days of one-sided trends from this week to next week, especially for altcoins. It seems that from today until noon tomorrow, there’s a high probability of a favorable situation. After the weekend, we need to pay close attention, as several significant spikes tend to occur on Saturday afternoons or Sunday afternoons.
I estimate that after six o'clock today, there will be a 2 to 4-hour level pullback. I feel this time the pullback can be a short-term opportunity, but as I mentioned a couple of days ago, don't hold onto additional positions for more than two days; sell high.
Well, for those who are following me, it might be worth observing three types of coins:
1. Low-position L1L2 represented by arb. I believe that even if Bitcoin has a significant pullback below 100,000, these coins are likely to have formed a bottom and are about to launch, especially arb, which is likely to experience another Bitcoin pullback (most likely coinciding with its recent unlocking event). That’s why I mention it now; it’s expected to rise after a pullback, but it’s also very possible to rise directly without a pullback. Prepare the tickets early to avoid disruption when the boat sails.
2. Inscription coins like Ordi and SATS have significant dips, and they will also need to be smoothed out soon.
3. The Act and om coins that plummeted in April and May. I believe these types of short-term investments have a good opportunity and space recently, but they are not suitable for long-term holding.
These are my suggestions and also reflect my own altcoin holdings. Objectively, the profits have been quite good these past couple of days, and I’ve sold some, waiting to add more after the pullback. Viewers might find this a reference; seeking common ground while reserving differences is also good.
I estimate that after six o'clock today, there will be a 2 to 4-hour level pullback. I feel this time the pullback can be a short-term opportunity, but as I mentioned a couple of days ago, don't hold onto additional positions for more than two days; sell high.
Well, for those who are following me, it might be worth observing three types of coins:
1. Low-position L1L2 represented by arb. I believe that even if Bitcoin has a significant pullback below 100,000, these coins are likely to have formed a bottom and are about to launch, especially arb, which is likely to experience another Bitcoin pullback (most likely coinciding with its recent unlocking event). That’s why I mention it now; it’s expected to rise after a pullback, but it’s also very possible to rise directly without a pullback. Prepare the tickets early to avoid disruption when the boat sails.
2. Inscription coins like Ordi and SATS have significant dips, and they will also need to be smoothed out soon.
3. The Act and om coins that plummeted in April and May. I believe these types of short-term investments have a good opportunity and space recently, but they are not suitable for long-term holding.
These are my suggestions and also reflect my own altcoin holdings. Objectively, the profits have been quite good these past couple of days, and I’ve sold some, waiting to add more after the pullback. Viewers might find this a reference; seeking common ground while reserving differences is also good.
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I guess you're going crazy
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It's not the trend that is unhealthy, it's your thinking. The very foundation of virtual currency is the fluctuation and rise of Bitcoin. Is it normal for it to not rebound and decline for a few months, but when it goes back up, it becomes abnormal and unhealthy? Heh.
The price has reached the position of the current year, after a full six months. In the context of a strong bullish sentiment (the Federal Reserve has been speculating about interest rate cuts since the beginning of the year), the bulls seem to be rekindling, giving a very strong impression. This kind of trend deviates from normal thinking and is unhealthy!
Now, the technical aspects have too much lag. Looking at all the short-term indicators, there seems to be no reason to enter short positions. It's hard to convince oneself to go short, but this is only a short-term scenario. In the medium to long term, the wave segment should still be treated as bearish. Regardless of how much position one holds, the trend is clearly looking bearish. In the short term, the effects are not visible; a waterfall of ten thousand points might appear around the end of the month!
It's also not good to reach the high position of 2870 in early June. Previously, there was no optimism about surpassing 3000, and this time is the same!
In the position of price stagnation, subjective speculation shouldn't be made; the market's rise and fall rely entirely on market sentiment. It can be said that positions can be entered short above 111500, and the short-term trend allows for entry. The target for the bearish trend is 100,000!
The short-term bullish positions have not yet ended. For the strong trend of the big currency, one can wait for a reversal. Enter short above 0282, with a target for the bearish trend set at 2400!
Now, the technical aspects have too much lag. Looking at all the short-term indicators, there seems to be no reason to enter short positions. It's hard to convince oneself to go short, but this is only a short-term scenario. In the medium to long term, the wave segment should still be treated as bearish. Regardless of how much position one holds, the trend is clearly looking bearish. In the short term, the effects are not visible; a waterfall of ten thousand points might appear around the end of the month!
It's also not good to reach the high position of 2870 in early June. Previously, there was no optimism about surpassing 3000, and this time is the same!
In the position of price stagnation, subjective speculation shouldn't be made; the market's rise and fall rely entirely on market sentiment. It can be said that positions can be entered short above 111500, and the short-term trend allows for entry. The target for the bearish trend is 100,000!
The short-term bullish positions have not yet ended. For the strong trend of the big currency, one can wait for a reversal. Enter short above 0282, with a target for the bearish trend set at 2400!
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This is enough to kill several times.
I will keep an eye on you today, dead or alive, short on $BTC #BTC再创新高
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Impatience leads to heavy actions. Upon looking at the opening position and leverage, it’s not just about placing heavy bets carelessly; it often stems from misreading trends, missing the opportunity to enter, and waiting for some time thinking it might be close enough to open a short position just to feel relevant.
This is probably not the first time doing this; it seems to have become a habit, and it’s hard to not incur losses.
This is probably not the first time doing this; it seems to have become a habit, and it’s hard to not incur losses.
Don't want to play anymore, speechless 😓
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It is estimated that 2300 will not be reached before the peak, it is just meaningless and inefficient.
I feel that the crypto world is not suitable for me. I kept shorting at a high point all night and kept losing. When I went long on a small pullback, I was not confident. I closed my position at a loss and it rose to 3000. In the end, I chased the rise at 2300 and ignored the liquidation price.
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It's still possible to go back a little now.
Let me go, I will lose 200u if I come down, I beg you, I won't play anymore.
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Some people are rubbing their fists today, preparing to go all in on shorting Ethereum. I can't judge whether their current mindset is normal; I can only express my personal view: I personally think that even if one chooses to short Bitcoin, it is still slightly better than shorting Ethereum.
For this wave of Ethereum, I feel that 3400-3600 is very likely to be reached, and there is even a possibility that it might directly surge to a new high above two thousand.
I don't insist that others believe my feelings; I only have this belief myself. However, the possibility exists objectively, and I will never ignore it. As for the viewers, you can just take a look.
For this wave of Ethereum, I feel that 3400-3600 is very likely to be reached, and there is even a possibility that it might directly surge to a new high above two thousand.
I don't insist that others believe my feelings; I only have this belief myself. However, the possibility exists objectively, and I will never ignore it. As for the viewers, you can just take a look.
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Is three million a lot? In front of those institutions hoarding currency, it can't even make a splash.
Is three million a little? When you've lost it all, what do you plan to rely on to fill this hole?
Is three million a little? When you've lost it all, what do you plan to rely on to fill this hole?
150 Ether liquidated, 3 million yuan wasted in two days
I'm under a lot of pressure
I'm under a lot of pressure
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Not worth sympathy
All in tonight, I'll just say it here
If you have the ability, blow me up
If you have the ability, blow me up
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First, let me briefly explain my personal advice: be bearish in the short term without shorting, and bullish in the long term without chasing.
Today, I saw many people presenting various reasons and evidence to be bullish. To be honest, these past few days have been quite intense. During last night's brief pullback, adding a position in line with the trend had a significantly high success rate. However, I must say: the market is not one-directional. Even if the trend is determined to be upward for a period (let's say the second half of the year), it won't only rise without falling. Grabbing adjustments a couple of times to chase upward is a nice bonus, but recklessly chasing increases can result in: at best, reduced profits; at worst, increased risk exposure costs. This wave started climbing from over 70,000, reached 90,000 and consolidated, hit 110,000 and pulled back 10,000. It is now about to enter the 118,000 area. If you consider the monthly and quarterly charts as daily charts, there’s a gap down to over 80,000, while Bitcoin has chosen to jump. Remember, even if it jumps high, it will eventually land back down on Earth.
I recall last month, someone on Wall Street predicted 120,000. In the past couple of days, someone on Wall Street predicted 160,000. My simple understanding is: the predictions given by institutions are just bananas swinging in front of your head, seemingly attainable but only if they actually give them to you. Therefore, we can consider these two ranges, but it’s best to see if we can get off the boat beforehand. After all, Bitcoin has short-term accumulated hundreds of thousands of units that they want to profit from. According to various recent reports, various enterprises have been accumulating coins in the past few months with a cost basis from about 80,000 to 100,000. If it breaks 120,000, they will gradually reduce their positions. If it breaks 150,000, that’s nearly a 50% profit for institutions (which is completely different from us retail investors doubling our leverage). At that point, it would be an extremely dangerous moment for us.
We often say that reaching the peak must mean going downhill afterward. The difference lies in whether you choose to walk down actively or get pushed off by a crowd at the top. Therefore, I genuinely advise everyone not to be obsessed with climbing a few more steps to the top; preparing to go down the mountain early is actually a more composed approach.
Today, I saw many people presenting various reasons and evidence to be bullish. To be honest, these past few days have been quite intense. During last night's brief pullback, adding a position in line with the trend had a significantly high success rate. However, I must say: the market is not one-directional. Even if the trend is determined to be upward for a period (let's say the second half of the year), it won't only rise without falling. Grabbing adjustments a couple of times to chase upward is a nice bonus, but recklessly chasing increases can result in: at best, reduced profits; at worst, increased risk exposure costs. This wave started climbing from over 70,000, reached 90,000 and consolidated, hit 110,000 and pulled back 10,000. It is now about to enter the 118,000 area. If you consider the monthly and quarterly charts as daily charts, there’s a gap down to over 80,000, while Bitcoin has chosen to jump. Remember, even if it jumps high, it will eventually land back down on Earth.
I recall last month, someone on Wall Street predicted 120,000. In the past couple of days, someone on Wall Street predicted 160,000. My simple understanding is: the predictions given by institutions are just bananas swinging in front of your head, seemingly attainable but only if they actually give them to you. Therefore, we can consider these two ranges, but it’s best to see if we can get off the boat beforehand. After all, Bitcoin has short-term accumulated hundreds of thousands of units that they want to profit from. According to various recent reports, various enterprises have been accumulating coins in the past few months with a cost basis from about 80,000 to 100,000. If it breaks 120,000, they will gradually reduce their positions. If it breaks 150,000, that’s nearly a 50% profit for institutions (which is completely different from us retail investors doubling our leverage). At that point, it would be an extremely dangerous moment for us.
We often say that reaching the peak must mean going downhill afterward. The difference lies in whether you choose to walk down actively or get pushed off by a crowd at the top. Therefore, I genuinely advise everyone not to be obsessed with climbing a few more steps to the top; preparing to go down the mountain early is actually a more composed approach.
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长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海
The big pie has had a sudden rise, which is an unexpected surprise, and the expectations are objectively present; different judgments probably only depend on the timing.
What comes after this sudden rise? What should we do? I would like to share some personal thoughts:
1. Don't rush to short. At the beginning of this month, I repeatedly told myself and advised everyone: don't short, and now the wording has changed to 'don't rush.' The reason is simple: this wave of large institutions has accumulated chips, using the opportunity or even finding an excuse to suddenly rise. Overall, the current profit margin is likely not enough for them to cash out. The inertia and influence of a sudden rise are enormous; after one sudden rise, there will inevitably be several more.
2. In the short term, the big pie, when considering daily and weekly levels, may continue to rise after a brief pause, but looking at it hourly, there may be strong fluctuations. So, hold back and do not blindly chase the rise. It's not that it won't rise, but chasing the rise in short waves has a very flimsy basis and can easily get you shaken out. Those who enjoy risk can consider using a 24-hour and two-day period as a reference, waiting for a 2-4 hour level oversold pullback to enter moderately, with a clearly defined and strict stop-loss point (for the big pie, it would likely need to drop one or two points; for the imitation coins, it may need to fall at least five points before considering it, and stop-loss should be set at least 3-5 points below the low). Then wait to sell at a new high. Typically, this kind of position won't last more than a two-day cycle and shouldn't exceed two days.
3. The stronger the rise of the big pie, the more brutal the market will be afterward. One benchmark I personally observe is 118000-128000. If it enters this range, any operation will become extremely dangerous, with the potential for a final big surge or a minute-level reversal crash.
Those who can calmly observe the market this morning are basically those who have previously built positions and are sitting on the boat. At this time, what needs to be done is not to be confused by the market numbers but to gradually reduce positions to take profits according to one's own needs and goals. Those who haven't gotten on board really don't need to rush, nor should they counteract by shorting just to make their presence felt. The monthly and three-month charts indicate that the big pie objectively has a demand and space for a pullback. The market is still there, the chips are still there, so there will always be opportunities. Midway operations often result in losses that waste chips. Hold back, sell high, buy low; this is always the way to go.
What comes after this sudden rise? What should we do? I would like to share some personal thoughts:
1. Don't rush to short. At the beginning of this month, I repeatedly told myself and advised everyone: don't short, and now the wording has changed to 'don't rush.' The reason is simple: this wave of large institutions has accumulated chips, using the opportunity or even finding an excuse to suddenly rise. Overall, the current profit margin is likely not enough for them to cash out. The inertia and influence of a sudden rise are enormous; after one sudden rise, there will inevitably be several more.
2. In the short term, the big pie, when considering daily and weekly levels, may continue to rise after a brief pause, but looking at it hourly, there may be strong fluctuations. So, hold back and do not blindly chase the rise. It's not that it won't rise, but chasing the rise in short waves has a very flimsy basis and can easily get you shaken out. Those who enjoy risk can consider using a 24-hour and two-day period as a reference, waiting for a 2-4 hour level oversold pullback to enter moderately, with a clearly defined and strict stop-loss point (for the big pie, it would likely need to drop one or two points; for the imitation coins, it may need to fall at least five points before considering it, and stop-loss should be set at least 3-5 points below the low). Then wait to sell at a new high. Typically, this kind of position won't last more than a two-day cycle and shouldn't exceed two days.
3. The stronger the rise of the big pie, the more brutal the market will be afterward. One benchmark I personally observe is 118000-128000. If it enters this range, any operation will become extremely dangerous, with the potential for a final big surge or a minute-level reversal crash.
Those who can calmly observe the market this morning are basically those who have previously built positions and are sitting on the boat. At this time, what needs to be done is not to be confused by the market numbers but to gradually reduce positions to take profits according to one's own needs and goals. Those who haven't gotten on board really don't need to rush, nor should they counteract by shorting just to make their presence felt. The monthly and three-month charts indicate that the big pie objectively has a demand and space for a pullback. The market is still there, the chips are still there, so there will always be opportunities. Midway operations often result in losses that waste chips. Hold back, sell high, buy low; this is always the way to go.
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This is the cold joke I often say to advise people: the pancake has reached a new high, but you are in a margin call... it's speechless.
Wah wah wah! The pancake has reached a new high, a little cry will be fine.
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别上头
At this moment, I will remember - my glorious moment.
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Every time there is a market trend, a group of such live treasures emerges, waving their locked orders back and forth. I don't know if they are truly hopeless or intentionally trying to gain attention. Regardless of which possibility it is, I feel they are misplacing their efforts.
Bosses, how do we solve this problem?
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After a decline for more than three months, you've shorted in the last two months, what's the basis for that? Ha, it's still quite unjust to be losing.
$BTC I found that I can't win at all, losing every month. For the past two months, I've been shorting, and it's just been skyrocketing. I've never won even once, not a single time. The day before yesterday, I deposited five thousand, and I only made five hundred. Last night I added twelve hundred for margin, but still got liquidated. I lost six thousand two hundred in two days. I thought it wouldn't rise last night, so I went to sleep. I woke up at three thirty and saw that I was liquidated.
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这个舒琴不在币圈的话，大概率就是个跳大神的
Shu Qin liked my comment, I'm so happy, so happy!
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这个脱口秀有点惨不忍睹
At two-thirty tonight, the Federal Reserve meeting will likely feature hawkish remarks. Inflation is high, interest rates are high, and the yield on dollar assets remains elevated.
Institutions and retail investors may sell off, turning to invest in dollars. This will likely lead to a drop in Bitcoin, and altcoins will probably follow suit, resulting in a sluggish market.
At two o'clock tonight, Dapeng will be at the front line, ready to welcome the silky waterfall. Fans without ideas and unable to make up their minds. Let's fight together with Dapeng.
Institutions and retail investors may sell off, turning to invest in dollars. This will likely lead to a drop in Bitcoin, and altcoins will probably follow suit, resulting in a sluggish market.
At two o'clock tonight, Dapeng will be at the front line, ready to welcome the silky waterfall. Fans without ideas and unable to make up their minds. Let's fight together with Dapeng.
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