First, let me briefly explain my personal advice: be bearish in the short term without shorting, and bullish in the long term without chasing.

Today, I saw many people presenting various reasons and evidence to be bullish. To be honest, these past few days have been quite intense. During last night's brief pullback, adding a position in line with the trend had a significantly high success rate. However, I must say: the market is not one-directional. Even if the trend is determined to be upward for a period (let's say the second half of the year), it won't only rise without falling. Grabbing adjustments a couple of times to chase upward is a nice bonus, but recklessly chasing increases can result in: at best, reduced profits; at worst, increased risk exposure costs. This wave started climbing from over 70,000, reached 90,000 and consolidated, hit 110,000 and pulled back 10,000. It is now about to enter the 118,000 area. If you consider the monthly and quarterly charts as daily charts, there’s a gap down to over 80,000, while Bitcoin has chosen to jump. Remember, even if it jumps high, it will eventually land back down on Earth.

I recall last month, someone on Wall Street predicted 120,000. In the past couple of days, someone on Wall Street predicted 160,000. My simple understanding is: the predictions given by institutions are just bananas swinging in front of your head, seemingly attainable but only if they actually give them to you. Therefore, we can consider these two ranges, but it’s best to see if we can get off the boat beforehand. After all, Bitcoin has short-term accumulated hundreds of thousands of units that they want to profit from. According to various recent reports, various enterprises have been accumulating coins in the past few months with a cost basis from about 80,000 to 100,000. If it breaks 120,000, they will gradually reduce their positions. If it breaks 150,000, that’s nearly a 50% profit for institutions (which is completely different from us retail investors doubling our leverage). At that point, it would be an extremely dangerous moment for us.

We often say that reaching the peak must mean going downhill afterward. The difference lies in whether you choose to walk down actively or get pushed off by a crowd at the top. Therefore, I genuinely advise everyone not to be obsessed with climbing a few more steps to the top; preparing to go down the mountain early is actually a more composed approach.