$ALPACA I have a bold guess. Normally, a low-IQ market maker would definitely dump assets and leave directly. A smart market maker would raise the price to sell off and slowly exit at a high level. So, if that's the case, a long position can be opened on the contract side, which means there's no need to crash the market; one can just wait for the contract to be delisted and automatically settle. The spot market can still be taken advantage of once more. It can be said to be killing two birds with one stone. Therefore, I predict that when the contract is delisted today, the market maker will definitely raise the price. Moreover, if you short, the most you can earn is 99% profit, but if you go long, it's different. If the price goes from 0.2 to 1 at the time of delisting, the return rate is 400%. So raising the price is the most profitable for the market maker; anyway, the position will automatically close, and there’s no need to crash the market. This is the essential reason. Secondly, from the market perspective, it’s obvious that no one would dare to go long; all the entrants are short positions. If there’s a crash, it’s the platform buying the orders. Therefore, to balance the market, the funding fees will definitely continue to impact -4%, attracting long positions to hedge against the crash risk. But if a crash really occurs, the platform buying might not acknowledge it. However, if there’s a surge, the money from the shorts will easily support the longs, and the rest will belong to the platform. Even if it breaks even, the platform can still earn a lot from liquidation fees. Finally, think about it again: will the platform stand on the side of retail investors? "The money from the wealthy is returned in full, while the money from retail investors is split 70-30." You ponder, you consider it deeply!
$ALPACA Do you all think that there will be a sharp drop when it gets delisted? In fact, there are other platforms, and the trading volume is not low. Since the whale wants to slap Binance in the face, and a bunch of people believe it will go to zero, I have reason to believe that this coin is very unlikely to drop below that level. So there are two possibilities: 1. It will continue to reach new highs, 2. It will consolidate at a high level, and in the end, it will explode all the shorts.
$ALPACA This dog stock is too amazing, when the funding fee was -2, it tricked retail investors into getting in, and then crashed it. Now that the funding fee is positive, it tricks retail investors into shorting. The methods of this stock cannot be described as sharp anymore; they should be considered brutal level.
$ALPACA Think about it, if the dog owner wants to crash the market, he has too many chips, and it would break through all at once. So how can he maximize his profits? By waiting for the platform to enforce liquidation when it gets delisted, this way he can make a hefty profit without crashing the market. Then he can crash the spot market again and profit twice. Another possibility is, during the liquidation, he can use his large amount of chips to instantly drop it to zero, which is easier for the dog owner than pulling it up. If he pulls it up at the last moment, it's likely that he won't be able to offload his bad assets, so the probability of pulling it up is low. In summary, there are two possible scenarios: 1. High-level sideways waiting for the platform’s forced liquidation. 2. At the last moment, relying on his chip advantage to instantly crash it.
Operational advice: If the liquidation moment is at a high level, consider shorting a position. If it's at a low level or neither high nor low, then do not participate.
Every hour, 2% of the position for shorting $ALPACA is deducted for the longs. Assuming 4x leverage, by tomorrow morning the margin will be completely deducted. Is this reasonable? Binance